Best by our grade: Michigan State. Lowest: Navy. Biggest game: at BYU, No. 8. Best play: Completion for 6 yards, at BYU, Q4 0:04. Win chance 11% to 50%.
Tap a game for its plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4
WIS
Wisconsin
W 41–13·Unranked
Great
239 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · Rush 2 for -6 · Sacked 1
I am so excited to watch CJ Carr
NDNotre Dame fan
Biggest swing: a Q1 completion added 9 points of win chance. Win chance: 74% to 82%.
Each column is a quarter. Blue and up is a good stretch for the quarterback, red and down a bad one, hatched means the game was already decided. A red cross is a turnover and a black dot a touchdown. The word on the right grades the whole game. A gold line means the r/CFB game thread kept naming the quarterback. Dashed outlines on the Season row are last season’s average. Tap a game to open its plays: each bar is one of the quarterback’s plays, up helped the team’s chance of winning and down hurt it, and the grey line is that chance.
The word grades the game against every FBS quarterback start, from Rough to Great, using the same throws as the season Zeitgeist Passer Rating and adjusting for the defense faced. Bars are points added per throw in that quarter. The Season row leaves out quarters after a game was decided.
Style of play
Balanced
Why this word
Runs2.0 a gameRarelyA lot
Throws9.4 yards past the lineShortDeep
Completes64% by play-by-playFewerMore
Takes sacks1% of dropbacksRarelyOften
The dot is this quarterback, among this season’s starters; the tick is the middle.
Throws at a middling depth and rarely runs. 2.0 carries a game. Closest matches: Simmons, Madsen, Warren, Richter.
Where the throws go
Behind the line8%typical 17%
Short55%typical 47%
Middle20%typical 22%
Deep17%typical 14%
Runs 2.0 times a game; 83% of starters run more.
Closest in style
Nearer the middle means more alike.
SimmonsMissouri · Vertical passer 1,935 yards, 16 TD, 2 INT so far. Both rarely run and protect the ball.
MadsenBoise State · Chain-mover 1,681 yards, 15 TD, 1 INT so far. Both are efficient and score a lot.
WarrenStanford · Pocket passer 2,203 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT so far. Both rarely run and rarely throw behind the line.
RichterToledo · Chain-mover 2,244 yards, 17 TD, 2 INT so far. Both are efficient and rarely run.
Compared with the 158 FBS starters this season for throws and running, and with 219 quarterbacks across 2 seasons for the matches, on how they play and how they have done.
This week
RecordNotre Dame is 7-1, No. 4 in the AP poll (week 10).
Last gameOct. 31 · a win over Navy, 210 passing yards.
That team is Miami, whose season-opening win over the Irish last fall became the exact tiebreaker the committee used to keep a 10-2 Notre Dame home. The schedule-makers put the rematch first. You couldn't script it crueler.
Read the rest of the story
Here's what the box score buries: no returning quarterback in the country was blitzed more than Carr — 36.7% of his dropbacks — because defenses saw a first-year starter and came hunting. It backfired. When teams didn't blitz, nobody in America averaged more per dropback (9.4). He finished fifth nationally in efficiency and a Manning Award finalist as a freshman.
The bloodline is the subplot you'll hear all year: Carr was raised in Saline, Michigan — grandson of Lloyd Carr, the man who won Michigan's last title in 1997 — and he chose Notre Dame over the Wolverines. Now he carries the title hopes of the program Ann Arbor loves to hate.
The forward question isn't the arm; it's the margin. The independent path leaves almost none — win at Miami and BYU and Resolves 2027-01-20.PENDING. Carr says his Year 2 leap is leadership and footwork, not numbers. The Irish haven't won it all since 1988. If the sophomore who shrugged off the blitz becomes the closer this program's been missing, the story stops being "good Notre Dame QB" and becomes "the one who ended the drought."
Update (Oct. 28, 2026): Notre Dame lost 28-24 at BYU on Oct. 17 as a 10.5-point favorite and is 6-1, No. 5 in the AP poll. Carr threw for 261 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in the loss. He has 1,639 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and one interception this season and ranks sixth in our Heisman model. The Miami game is Nov. 7 at Notre Dame.
The record
A falsifiable call from this player's outlook. Not yet gradeable.
What we said
win at Miami and BYU for an 87%-likely Playoff bid; slip once and the snub debate reopens
Graded as: at least 1 College Football Playoff game in 2026.
Each week: his team’s game, the stories about him that week, and the week’s biggest news headline.
In the news across his career
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2025). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Ranked among the 624 QBs we have enough data on. Perception is how much fans talk about this player; production is our passing-value metric (weighted expected points added).
Incomplete to Nolan James Jr. on 3rd and 10. First quarter, up 7-0.
2
9-yard run on 3rd and 4. First quarter, up 7-0. Converted.
3
70-yard touchdown pass to Aneyas Williams. Second quarter, made it 37-0.
10203040503070
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
NCW 37-26 at North CarolinaOct. 3234 yds21 of 29, 4 TD8.1 yds an attempt, 38th in FBS
21 of 29 for 234 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.
PURW 49-10 at PurdueSept. 26237 yds14 of 22, 3 TD, 1 INT10.8 yds an attempt, 19th in FBS
14 of 22 for 237 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception. Notre Dame scored touchdowns on 5 of the 7 drives he played.
5 of 7 of his drives scored
3 of 5 on 3rd and 4th down
3 runs for 10 yds
First quarterbegan tied 0-0
Punt1 of 3, 14 yds1
TD2 of 2, 44 yds
TD1 of 1, 56 yds2
Second quarterbegan up 7-0
TD2 of 5, 36 yds3
TD3 of 4, 36 yds
Third quarterbegan up 35-0
Int0 of 2, 0 yds4
TD5 of 5, 51 yds
FinalW 49-10
a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost
Incomplete to Micah Gilbert on 3rd and 6. First quarter, tied 0-0. Broken up by Purdue’s D. Saunders.
2
56-yard completion to Micah Gilbert. First quarter, up 7-0.
3
2-yard run on 4th and 1. Second quarter, up 14-0. Converted.
4
Intercepted on 3rd and 10. Third quarter, up 35-0. Picked off by Purdue’s Charles Correa.
10203040505631
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
MSW 27-10 vs Michigan StateSept. 19234 yds18 of 249.8 yds an attempt, 26th in FBS
18 of 24 for 234 yards. He was 2 of 8 on third and fourth down.
5 of 9 of his drives scored
2 of 8 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
2 runs for 10 yds
First quarterbegan tied 0-0
FG1 of 1, 61 yds12
TD4 of 5, 23 yds34
Downs1 of 1, 2 yds
Second quarterbegan up 10-0
TD3 of 4, 33 yds
Punt1 of 2, 4 yds
Half0 of 1, 0 yds
Third quarterbegan up 17-10
FG5 of 6, 37 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 20-10
TD2 of 2, 67 yds
Missed FG1 of 2, 7 yds
FinalW 27-10
a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost
61-yard completion to Micah Gilbert. First quarter, tied 0-0.
2
7-yard run on 3rd and 10. First quarter, tied 0-0.
3
8-yard completion to Micah Gilbert on 4th and 3. First quarter, up 3-0. Converted.
4
Incomplete to Micah Gilbert on 3rd and 2. First quarter, up 3-0.
10203040503961
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
RICW 52-0 vs RiceSept. 12253 yds16 of 20, 4 TD12.7 yds an attempt, 9th in FBS
16 of 20 for 253 yards and 4 touchdowns; 12.7 yards an attempt, 9th-best in FBS that week.
Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.
WISW 41-13 vs WisconsinSept. 6239 yds19 of 29, 2 TD8.2 yds an attempt, 67th in FBS
19 of 29 for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was 1 of 6 on third and fourth down.
6 of 10 of his drives scored
1 of 6 on 3rd and 4th down
sacked once
1 run for 2 yds
First quarterbegan tied 0-0
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds1
FG4 of 6, 37 yds2
TD1 of 2, 3 yds
Second quarterbegan up 10-3
Punt0 of 1, 0 yds3
FG3 of 4, 59 yds4
Punt1 of 1, 7 yds
Half0 of 1, 0 yds
Third quarterbegan up 13-10
TD4 of 5, 51 yds
TD2 of 2, 36 yds
Fourth quarterbegan up 27-13
TD4 of 6, 46 yds
FinalW 41-13
a drive that ended in a touchdown or a field goala drive he didn’t playa completion, by its yardshis runincompleteinterceptedsacked, by the yards lost
Sacked for a 8-yard loss on 3rd and 7. First quarter, tied 0-0.
2
6-yard completion to Jaden Greathouse on 3rd and 10. First quarter, down 3-0.
3
Incomplete to Mylan Graham on 3rd and 6. Second quarter, up 10-3. Broken up by Wisconsin’s M. Jung.
4
30-yard completion to Jordan Faison. Second quarter, tied 10-10.
102030405030
leftmiddlerightno spot
a completionincompleteinterceptedsacked, below the line
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
Highs and lows
Only games with 20 or more plays count for best and lowest.
Sorted by passing yards. Gray: under 10 attempts a game, so not ranked on yards an attempt.
Passing yards1,8492nd in the FBS Independents this season.
Touchdown passes18tied for 35th among current FBS players over the whole career (42).
Conference ranks count every player in the conference with a row in that stat, any position. Career ranks count current FBS players, from the games in our log.
Opponents faced, by strength
Ratings of the games shown run from -14 to +17 points against an average team (SP+ rating of each opponent).
Pass targets
Faison and Gilbert saw 92 of the 223 charted throws.
Play by play: 223 passes, 148 caught, 1,849 yards; the box score counts 222 attempts. Throw depth: average air yards per target. After catch: average yards after the catch per catch. Bar: targets; the blue part was caught.
Passing profile
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
148/222 (66.7%) · 18 TD · 1 INT
All 222 box-score attempts covered (play-by-play lists 223 passing plays)
221 of 223 attempts charted for true throw depth
Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 223 passing plays (148 completions) against the box score's 222 attempts (148 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.
Adjusted ANY/A
9.6212 of 185 QBs
Sack rate
0.9%6 of 185 QBs
Rarely sacked (6 of 185 QBs) and still 12 of 185 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
After 187 dropbacks
72Zeitgeist Passer Rating14th of 119 FBS QBs
NCAA passer rating162.521st of 119 FBS QBs
Positive-play rate weight 24%
53.7%92nd pct of FBS QBs
share of dropbacks that gained expected points · -1.4% schedule adj.
Yards per attempt weight 56%
8.2573rd pct of FBS QBs
sacks excluded · +0.3 schedule adj.
Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
1.8%96th pct of FBS QBs
the input passer rating cannot see · +0.7% schedule adj.
Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (38 of 225 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.
Splits
Home and road splits, scheme and staff
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 8 games
Home/Road · Season halves
Home vs Road
YDS/g
TD/g
YPA
INT/g
Home3g
223
2.3
10.5
0.0
Road3g
244
2.3
8.1
0.3
First half vs Second half
YDS/g
TD/g
YPA
INT/g
Weeks 1-77g
234
2.3
9.1
0.1
Weeks 8+1g
210
2.0
7.2
0.0
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
2026 season
Head Coach
Marcus Freeman
Pass share
46.7%
247 pass / 282 run
Plays / game
66.1
8 games
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Notre Dame’s quarterbacks
CJ Carr
Threw in all 8 games · 148 of 222, 1,849 yds, 18 TD, 1 INT · 8.3 yards an attempt on 222 attempts · ran for 86 yds, 3 TD
In 2026 CJ Carr threw 222 of Notre Dame's 247 passes, in all eight games.
Passing seasons on file
Year
School
Passes
Yards
TD
INT
2025
Notre Dame
293
2,741
24
6
2026
Notre Dame
222
1,849
18
1
Of 39 four-star quarterbacks at Power Four schools who threw 100 or more passes in their second season, 27 threw 100 or more passes in their fourth season
Four-star quarterbacks at Power Four schools whose first season on an FBS roster was 2015 to 2021. Carr is in the same spot now: four-star, 100 or more passes in a second season. Here is where each of the 39 stood in their fourth season. Press a row to see the names.
27Threw 100 or more passesAt a different school: nine of 27
Deondre Francois, Florida State, first season 2015. Passes in the fourth season: 396.
Jake Browning, Washington, first season 2015. Passes in the fourth season: 386.
Drew Lock, Missouri, first season 2015. Passes in the fourth season: 437.
Kyle Shurmur, Vanderbilt, first season 2015. Passes in the fourth season: 406.
Shane Buechele, Texas, first season 2016. Passes in the fourth season: 490. At a different school.
Brandon Peters, Michigan, first season 2016. Passes in the fourth season: 274. At a different school.
K.J. Costello, Stanford, first season 2016. Passes in the fourth season: 166.
Sam Ehlinger, Texas, first season 2017. Passes in the fourth season: 306.
Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee, first season 2017. Passes in the fourth season: 166.
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M, first season 2017. Passes in the fourth season: 270.
Ohio State, first season 2020. Drafted No. 2 overall in 2023.
The low edge
Of the 39, one had no roster listing in the fourth season. Our rosters cannot say why a listing stops.
How to read this
The group is every one of the four-star quarterbacks at Power Four schools with 100 or more passes in a second season on an FBS roster, first seasons 2015 to 2021. A quarterback counts under “Threw 100 or more passes” when the passes in the fourth season, at any FBS school, add to 100 or more. “No roster listing” means no FBS roster listed the quarterback as a QB that season. A missing listing does not say why a listing stops, and rosters below FBS are still being filled in. “Drafted” means picked in a draft held before the fourth season. Quarterbacks whose name matches a second QB id are left out. Furthest up is the highest draft pick in the group, or with no draft pick, the most passes in the fourth season. The low edge is a count of quarterbacks with no roster listing in the fourth season. Counts are from box scores and rosters on our list. Seasons before 2022 predate today's transfer rules.
Carr plays the position like a chess clock — pre-snap he's already three moves ahead, and the ball is gone the instant his back foot lands. The surprise is where it's going: he's not a checkdown surgeon, he's a downfield one. His average throw traveled nearly fifteen yards in the air — 94th-percentile depth — and he still finished 92nd percentile in success rate and 96th in explosive passes. He takes shots, and he connects. What he doesn't do is run; thirty-three yards all season says he'd rather solve the problem than flee it. The edge is the flip side of the gift: when the first read's gone and the pocket caves, the anticipation that makes him lethal on schedule has less to lean on — exactly the off-platform footwork he chased all offseason. In a 2026 where Notre Dame needs him to carry a title run, the question was never the deep ball; it's the third-and-8 when the script's gone.
