2026 season · Week 10 · Updated Nov 4, 2026
College football rankings
Our model, the human polls, and what Vegas thinks — on one board. Where they agree, that's consensus. Where they don't, that's a story.
CFB Zeitgeist Score — live
AP + Coaches — week 10
Committee — week 10
Vegas — title odds live; win totals as of Oct 19
Through week 10, our model and the major sportsbooks diverge on 3 teams. The biggest gap: Arkansas — we have them #106, Vegas has them #40.
How this is computed →
Vegas is in · we're skeptical
Arkansas
SEC
#106
Our model
#40
Vegas
#1#25+
Our model #106 and Vegas #40 are past #25, drawn as a hollow dot at the right end
Our model has them #106 — 66 spots lower.
Vegas is in · we're skeptical
Old Dominion
Sun Belt
#126
Our model
#62
Vegas
#1#25+
Our model #126 and Vegas #62 are past #25, drawn as a hollow dot at the right end
Our model has them #126 — 64 spots lower.
Vegas is in · we're skeptical
California
ACC
#117
Our model
#58
Vegas
#1#25+
Our model #117 and Vegas #58 are past #25, drawn as a hollow dot at the right end
Our model has them #117 — 59 spots lower.
Polls & our model
Live
Bettors
Live
Belief
Live
Team
Our model
Human polls
Bettors
Gap track (rank 1 → 25)
| Team | CFB Zeitgeist Score▲ | AP | Coaches | Committee | Win total | us vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
Notre Dame
FBS Independents
|
115.5 | 4▲1 |
6 |
11 |
—
+500
|
#1#25
|
|
2
Ohio State
Big Ten
|
215.1 | 11▼9 |
10 |
12 |
—
+1000
|
#1#25
|
|
3
Georgia
SEC
|
313.9 | 2▲1 |
2 |
2 |
—
+350
|
#1#25
|
|
4
Indiana
Big Ten
|
413.8 | 6▼2 |
3 |
4 |
10.5 W
+1000
|
#1#25
|
|
5
Miami
ACC
|
512.9 | 1 |
1 |
1 |
11.5 W
+600
|
#1#25
|
|
6
Texas
SEC
|
612.6 | 10▲1 |
11 |
7 |
9.5 W
+1100
|
#1#25
|
|
7
LSU
SEC
|
712.5 | 15 |
15 |
14 |
8.5 W
+800
|
#1#25
|
|
8
Alabama
SEC
|
811.9 | 9▲1 |
9 |
5 |
9.5 W
+1100
|
#1#25
|
|
9
Ole Miss
SEC
|
911.7 | 12 |
12 |
10 |
8.5 W
+1800
|
#1#25
|
|
10
Northwestern
Big Ten
|
1011.3 | NR |
23 |
NR |
7.5 W
+22112
|
#1Vegas #28#25+
|
|
11
Oregon
Big Ten
|
1111.1 | NR |
NR |
23 |
8.5 W
+30000
|
#1Vegas #31#25+
|
|
12
Texas Tech
Big 12
|
1210.8 | 13 |
13 |
15 |
10.5 W
+9000
|
#1#25
|
| ― On the bubble | ||||||
|
13
Boise State
Pac-12
|
1310.7 | 20 |
21 |
25 |
9.5 W
+25000
|
#1Vegas #29#25+
|
|
14
Utah
Big 12
|
1410.5 | 3▲3 |
4 |
3 |
10.5 W
+3000
|
#1#25
|
|
15
Arizona
Big 12
|
1510.0 | 24▼2 |
22 |
22 |
8.5 W
+30000
|
#1Vegas #32#25+
|
|
16
Iowa
Big Ten
|
169.6 | 21 |
20 |
19 |
8.5 W
+15000
|
#1#25
|
|
17
Wake Forest
ACC
|
179.4 | 14 |
14 |
16 |
9.5 W
+8000
|
#1#25
|
|
18
Baylor
Big 12
|
189.1 | NR |
NR |
NR |
7.0 W
+100000
|
#1Vegas #53#25+
|
|
19
UCLA
Big Ten
|
199.0 | 5▲2 |
5 |
8 |
10.5 W
+5000
|
#1#25
|
|
20
BYU
Big 12
|
209.0 | 7▲1 |
8 |
9 |
10.5 W
+7500
|
#1#25
|
|
21
Houston
Big 12
|
218.8 | 17▲1 |
18 |
17 |
9.5 W
+20000
|
#1#25
|
|
22
Tennessee
SEC
|
228.8 | 16 |
16 |
13 |
—
+6000
|
#1#25
|
|
23
Florida
SEC
|
238.8 | 25▼8 |
NR |
24 |
7.5 W
+8000
|
#1#25
|
|
24
South Carolina
SEC
|
248.5 | 23 |
NR |
21 |
5.5 W
+20000
|
#1Vegas #27#25+
|
|
25
Nebraska
Big Ten
|
258.4 | NR |
NR |
NR |
8.5 W
+60000
|
#1Vegas #37#25+
|
CFB Zeitgeist Score — composite model: power rating + schedule strength + cross-division context.
AP / Coaches — official human polls; week 10 live.
Committee — live — week 10.
Bettors — consensus win total + CFP futures across major sportsbooks.
Blue = our model rank
Gold = Vegas rank (by win total)
Orange shading = high human poll rank (1 – 5)
AP Top 25 — others receiving votes: Washington 172; Florida 83; Boise State 57; Oklahoma State 36; Western Michigan 35; Tulsa 18; Mississippi State 17; South Carolina 15; Virginia Tech 11; UCLA 9; James Madison 6; Arizona 5; North Dakota State 3; Kansas State 1; Pittsburgh 1
Coaches Poll — others receiving votes: Louisville 153; Florida 147; TCU 63; Illinois 62; Arizona 50; South Carolina 50; Virginia 40; Vanderbilt 37; Auburn 29; Georgia Tech 26; Boise State 24; Oklahoma State 22; UNLV 17; Florida State 13; NC State 13; Nebraska 12; Virginia Tech 12; Memphis 9; Arizona State 8; Duke 6; James Madison 6; New Mexico 4; Pittsburgh 4; Navy 3; Western Michigan 3; San Diego State 2; California 1; Hawai'i 1; Jacksonville State 1; Kansas State 1
Biggest gap, Vegas above us
Arkansas
+66 spots
Biggest gap, us above Vegas
UTSA
+55 spots
Books sampled
3 – 5
consensus median · de-vigged title %
Win totals — what Vegas expects
Consensus line across major sportsbooks.
The over/under on season wins before a snap is played.
Team
Projected wins
Line
Title %
Miami
11.5
14.3%
LSU
8.5
11.1%
Indiana
10.5
9.1%
Texas
9.5
8.3%
Alabama
9.5
8.3%
Ole Miss
8.5
5.3%
Texas A&M
5.5
3.8%
Utah
10.5
3.2%
UCLA
10.5
2.0%
USC
8.5
1.6%
BYU
10.5
1.3%
Kentucky
7.5
1.3%
Wake Forest
9.5
1.2%
Florida
7.5
1.2%
Texas Tech
10.5
1.1%
Missouri
7.5
1.0%
Iowa
8.5
0.7%
Houston
9.5
0.5%
SMU
8.5
0.5%
South Carolina
5.5
0.5%
Northwestern
7.5
0.5%
Boise State
9.5
0.4%
Vanderbilt
4.5
0.4%
Oregon
8.5
0.3%
Arizona
8.5
0.3%
Source: consensus median across major sportsbooks ·
de-vigged CFP championship futures
Model rank vs. Vegas rank
Gold dot = where Vegas ranks the team by win total. Blue dot = CFB Zeitgeist Score rank. Vegas rank = championship odds first, then each team's season win total, which is a line set before the season; a team with no title price ranks below every priced team.
Vegas rank (win total)
CFB Zeitgeist Score rank
Notre Dame
V#2 · #1
Ohio State
V#6 · #2
Georgia
V#1 · #3
Indiana
V#5 · #4
Miami
V#3 · #5
Texas
V#7 · #6
LSU
V#4 · #7
Alabama
V#8 · #8
#1#6#11#16#21
Source: CFB Zeitgeist model · consensus median across major sportsbooks
Fan heat index — how each fanbase is running right now. Drawn from Reddit discussion volume,
sentiment, and tone across the past seven days. Thin readings: treat direction (▲▼) as more reliable than absolute rank.
Rising this week
North Carolina A&T
▲69.5
100 pts
South Dakota State
▲63.2
100 pts
Dartmouth
▲49.5
65 pts
Falling this week
Clarion
▼59.8
5 pts
Georgetown
▼54.0
8 pts
Gardner-Webb
▼51.0
16 pts
| # | Team | Belief score | This week | Zone | vs. market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Dakota State | 100 | ▲63.2 | — | — |
| 2 | Charleston Southern | 100 | ▲37.5 | — | — |
| 3 | Yale | 100 | ▲34.0 | — | — |
| 4 | North Carolina A&T | 100 | ▲69.5 | — | — |
| 5 | Washington and Lee | 99 | ▲24.3 | — | — |
| 6 | Kent State | 80 | ▲24.8 | — | — |
| 7 | Butler | 80 | ▲5.0 | — | — |
| 8 | Linfield | 80 | ▲28.4 | — | — |
| 9 | East Carolina | 78 | ▲1.5 | — | — |
| 10 | UTEP | 78 | ▲13.4 | — | — |
| 11 | Missouri State | 78 | ▲17.8 | — | — |
| 12 | Eastern Michigan | 78 | ▲41.2 | — | — |
| 13 | Toledo | 77 | ▲30.8 | — | — |
| 14 | San José State | 76 | ▲9.3 | — | — |
| 15 | Louisiana | 75 | ▲3.6 | — | — |
| 16 | Jackson State | 75 | ▲10.5 | — | — |
| 17 | Stony Brook | 75 | ▲14.3 | — | — |
| 18 | North Dakota State | 73 | ▲20.9 | — | — |
| 19 | UL Monroe | 72 | ▲2.6 | — | — |
| 20 | Memphis | 71 | ▲4.3 | — | — |
| 21 | Troy | 70 | ▲5.9 | — | — |
| 22 | Stanford | 70 | ▲13.9 | — | — |
| 23 | Georgia State | 70 | ▲10.2 | — | — |
| 24 | App State | 70 | ▲2.2 | — | — |
| 25 | Thomas More | 69 | ▼11.2 | — | — |
| 26 | Utah State | 68 | ▲14.3 | — | — |
| 27 | Tulane | 68 | ▲21.2 | — | — |
| 28 | Bowling Green | 68 | ▲3.7 | — | — |
| 29 | Coastal Carolina | 66 | ▼6.2 | — | — |
| 30 | Wyoming | 66 | ▲10.0 | — | — |
| 31 | Northern Illinois | 66 | ▼2.7 | — | — |
| 32 | Marshall | 66 | ▲10.7 | — | — |
| 33 | Sacramento State | 66 | ▲21.2 | — | — |
| 34 | Western Kentucky | 65 | ▲1.4 | — | — |
| 35 | Dartmouth | 65 | ▲49.5 | — | — |
| 36 | Campbell | 65 | ▲33.9 | — | — |
| 37 | Willamette | 65 | ▼33.8 | — | — |
| 38 | Florida Atlantic | 64 | ▲3.0 | — | — |
| 39 | Louisiana Tech | 64 | ▲2.0 | — | — |
| 40 | Georgia Southern | 64 | ▲4.8 | — | — |
| 41 | Arizona State | 64 | ▲11.3 | — | — |
| 42 | Tulsa | 63 | ▼3.0 | — | — |
| 43 | TCU | 63 | ▲13.6 | — | — |
| 44 | Arizona | 63 | ▲11.1 | — | — |
| 45 | New Mexico State | 63 | ▲4.9 | — | — |
| 46 | Mercer | 62 | ▲4.9 | — | — |
| 47 | Liberty | 62 | ▲3.5 | — | — |
| 48 | Harvard | 62 | ▲5.3 | — | — |
| 49 | New Mexico | 62 | ▲6.0 | — | — |
| 50 | Southern Miss | 62 | ▲5.6 | — | — |
| 51 | Western Michigan | 62 | ▲8.9 | — | — |
| 52 | Purdue | 62 | ▲7.0 | — | — |
| 53 | Oklahoma State | 61 | ▲14.1 | — | — |
| 54 | Syracuse | 61 | ▲6.6 | — | — |
| 55 | UConn | 61 | ▲14.6 | — | — |
| 56 | Middle Tennessee | 61 | ▲6.5 | — | — |
| 57 | Houston | 61 | ▼1.3 | — | — |
| 58 | Sam Houston | 61 | ▲3.8 | — | — |
| 59 | Mississippi State | 60 | ▲14.0 | — | — |
| 60 | Kennesaw State | 60 | ▲7.5 | — | — |
| 61 | North Texas | 60 | ▲1.7 | — | — |
| 62 | Ball State | 60 | ▲7.5 | — | — |
| 63 | Florida International | 59 | ▲3.0 | — | — |
| 64 | Rice | 59 | ▲0.4 | — | — |
| 65 | South Alabama | 59 | ▼1.4 | — | — |
| 66 | Boston College | 59 | ▲5.3 | — | — |
| 67 | Ole Miss | 58 | ▲9.4 | — | — |
| 68 | Virginia | 58 | ▲15.5 | — | — |
| 69 | Air Force | 58 | ▲3.0 | — | — |
| 70 | Jacksonville State | 58 | ▲8.7 | — | — |
| 71 | Army | 58 | ▲3.4 | — | — |
| 72 | Tennessee | 58 | ▲7.7 | — | — |
| 73 | Fresno State | 57 | ▲10.6 | — | — |
| 74 | Alabama | 57 | ▲5.1 | UNEASY | Fans +60 |
| 75 | Kentucky | 57 | ▲3.6 | UNEASY | — |
| 76 | Nevada | 57 | ▲4.4 | — | — |
| 77 | Vanderbilt | 57 | ▲0.3 | — | — |
| 78 | Baylor | 57 | ▲2.2 | — | — |
| 79 | James Madison | 56 | ▲11.3 | — | — |
| 80 | Temple | 56 | ▲4.5 | — | — |
| 81 | Virginia Tech | 56 | ▲1.0 | — | — |
| 82 | UNLV | 56 | ▲2.8 | — | — |
| 83 | Wake Forest | 56 | ▼1.8 | — | — |
| 84 | Hawai'i | 55 | ▲14.3 | — | — |
| 85 | Louisville | 55 | ▲9.3 | — | — |
| 86 | Oregon | 55 | ▲5.9 | UNEASY | Fans +60 |
| 87 | Trinity (CT) | 55 | ▲0.1 | — | — |
| 88 | Tarleton State | 55 | ▲5.5 | — | — |
| 89 | Minnesota State | 55 | ▲19.7 | — | — |
| 90 | NC State | 55 | ▼0.8 | — | — |
| 91 | Eastern Washington | 55 | ▼20.0 | — | — |
| 92 | Indiana State | 55 | ▼16.1 | — | — |
| 93 | Boise State | 55 | ▲5.5 | — | — |
| 94 | Newberry | 55 | ▲25.0 | — | — |
| 95 | Oberlin | 55 | ▲23.6 | — | — |
| 96 | South Carolina | 55 | ▲2.6 | UNEASY | — |
| 97 | Iowa State | 54 | ▼2.0 | — | — |
| 98 | Northwestern | 54 | ▲4.9 | — | — |
| 99 | Miami (OH) | 54 | ▲3.1 | — | — |
| 100 | William & Mary | 54 | ▲7.6 | — | — |
| 101 | Illinois | 54 | ▲1.9 | — | — |
| 102 | Cincinnati | 54 | ▲6.7 | — | — |
| 103 | West Virginia | 54 | ▲3.7 | — | — |
| 104 | Washington | 54 | ▲3.2 | UNEASY | — |
| 105 | UAB | 53 | ▲6.1 | — | — |
| 106 | Utah | 53 | ▲3.6 | — | — |
| 107 | Missouri | 53 | ▲3.0 | — | — |
| 108 | USC | 53 | ▲6.0 | — | — |
| 109 | Maryland | 53 | ▲3.5 | UNEASY | — |
| 110 | Wofford | 53 | ▼2.7 | — | — |
| 111 | Texas A&M | 53 | ▲4.3 | — | — |
| 112 | Georgia Tech | 52 | ▲10.7 | — | — |
| 113 | Rutgers | 52 | ▲5.4 | — | — |
| 114 | Charlotte | 52 | ▲2.6 | — | — |
| 115 | UTSA | 52 | ▲2.6 | — | — |
| 116 | Akron | 52 | ▼10.1 | — | — |
| 117 | Colorado State | 52 | ▲0.7 | — | — |
| 118 | Texas | 52 | ▲0.8 | UNEASY | Fans +10 |
| 119 | UCF | 51 | ▲1.3 | — | — |
| 120 | Texas State | 51 | ▲3.4 | — | — |
| 121 | LSU | 51 | ▲3.7 | UNEASY | Mkt +10 |
| 122 | Clemson | 51 | ▲3.2 | — | — |
| 123 | Holy Cross | 50 | ▼34.7 | — | — |
| 124 | Florida | 50 | ▼1.0 | UNEASY | — |
| 125 | Oregon State | 50 | ▲5.1 | — | — |
| 126 | Penn State | 50 | ▲5.5 | — | — |
| 127 | Minnesota | 49 | ▼3.5 | UNEASY | — |
| 128 | Massachusetts | 49 | ▼12.4 | — | — |
| 129 | South Florida | 49 | ▼3.2 | — | — |
| 130 | Colorado | 49 | ▼0.8 | — | — |
| 131 | Buffalo | 49 | ▼13.9 | — | — |
| 132 | California | 49 | ▲4.2 | — | — |
| 133 | BYU | 48 | ▲4.6 | UNEASY | — |
| 134 | SMU | 48 | ▼2.1 | — | — |
| 135 | Pittsburgh | 48 | ▲1.7 | — | — |
| 136 | Notre Dame | 48 | ▲1.3 | UNEASY | Mkt +30 |
| 137 | Navy | 48 | ▲3.6 | — | — |
| 138 | Lafayette | 48 | ▲4.9 | — | — |
| 139 | Kansas | 48 | ▲4.4 | UNEASY | — |
| 140 | Florida State | 48 | ▲9.7 | UNEASY | — |
| 141 | Indiana | 48 | ▼4.4 | — | — |
| 142 | Brown | 47 | ▲14.0 | — | — |
| 143 | Arkansas State | 47 | ▼1.8 | — | — |
| 144 | Ohio State | 46 | ▼5.5 | UNEASY | Mkt +10 |
| 145 | North Carolina | 46 | ▼3.2 | UNEASY | — |
| 146 | Washington State | 46 | ▲3.3 | — | — |
| 147 | Michigan | 46 | ▲2.2 | UNEASY | Fans +10 |
| 148 | Arkansas | 46 | ▼4.3 | UNEASY | — |
| 149 | Ohio | 46 | ▼2.3 | — | — |
| 150 | UC Davis | 46 | ▲8.0 | — | — |
| 151 | Carnegie Mellon | 45 | ▼17.4 | — | — |
| 152 | Delaware | 45 | ▲1.7 | — | — |
| 153 | Michigan State | 45 | ▲1.2 | UNEASY | — |
| 154 | Georgia | 45 | ▼3.4 | UNEASY | Mkt +80 |
| 155 | UCLA | 45 | ▼5.4 | UNEASY | — |
| 156 | Miami | 44 | ▼4.9 | UNEASY | Mkt +80 |
| 157 | Wisconsin | 44 | ▲2.4 | UNEASY | — |
| 158 | Auburn | 44 | ▲1.8 | UNEASY | — |
| 159 | Iowa | 43 | ▼3.4 | UNEASY | — |
| 160 | Oklahoma | 42 | ▼1.4 | UNEASY | — |
| 161 | Kansas State | 41 | ▼7.0 | — | — |
| 162 | Sewanee | 41 | ▲4.3 | — | — |
| 163 | Duke | 40 | ▼5.2 | — | — |
| 164 | Brockport | 40 | ▼40.0 | — | — |
| 165 | Cornell | 40 | ▼1.5 | — | — |
| 166 | Old Dominion | 40 | ▼1.2 | — | — |
| 167 | Texas Tech | 40 | ▼8.5 | UNEASY | — |
| 168 | San Diego State | 40 | ▼11.0 | — | — |
| 169 | Illinois State | 40 | ▼23.8 | — | — |
| 170 | Clark Atlanta | 38 | ▼11.0 | — | — |
| 171 | Youngstown State | 38 | ▼16.9 | — | — |
| 172 | Nebraska | 38 | ▼11.8 | UNEASY | — |
| 173 | Western Oregon | 36 | ▲20.2 | — | — |
| 174 | Princeton | 35 | ▼4.1 | — | — |
| 175 | Duquesne | 30 | ▼12.9 | — | — |
| 176 | Idaho | 30 | ▼27.7 | — | — |
| 177 | Austin | 24 | ▼2.4 | — | — |
| 178 | Gardner-Webb | 16 | ▼51.0 | — | — |
| 179 | Columbia | 15 | ▼21.9 | — | — |
| 180 | Centre | 8 | ▼39.1 | — | — |
| 181 | Georgetown | 8 | ▼54.0 | — | — |
| 182 | Northern Iowa | 6 | ▼28.7 | — | — |
| 183 | East Texas A&M | 6 | ▼49.4 | — | — |
| 184 | Clarion | 5 | ▼59.8 | — | — |
~ = low-signal (156 of 184 programs — thin readings are directional, not definitive). vs. Market shows fan belief percentile minus Vegas percentile where available.