CFB Rankings 2026 — CFB Zeitgeist

Through week 3, our model and the major sportsbooks already diverge on 3 teams. The biggest gap: UTSA — we have them #14, Vegas has them #94.

How this is computed →

Divergence watch 3 biggest model vs. Vegas gaps

We believe · Vegas is not yet

UTSA American Athletic

#14 Our model

#94 Vegas

#1#25

We have them #14. Vegas has them #94 (+162500 to win it all) — 80 spots behind us.

We believe · Vegas is not yet

UAB American Athletic

#58 Our model

#133 Vegas

#1#25

We have them #58. Vegas has them #133 (+562500 to win it all) — 75 spots behind us.

We believe · Vegas is not yet

Marshall Sun Belt

#33 Our model

#107 Vegas

#1#25

We have them #33. Vegas has them #107 (+212500 to win it all) — 74 spots behind us.

Polls & our model Live

Bettors Live

Résumé After wk 1

Belief Live

Level: FBS Show: All Top 25 Gaps only

Team

Our model

Human polls

Bettors

Gap track (rank 1 → 25)

Team	CFB Zeitgeist▲	AP	Coaches	Committee	Win total	us vegas
1 Ohio State Big Ten	115.2	6▼5	6	Oct 28	9.5 W +550	#1#25
2 Notre Dame FBS Independents	215.0	3	3	Oct 28	11.5 W +650	#1#25
3 Georgia SEC	314.9	2	2	Oct 28	9.5 W +700	#1#25
4 Texas SEC	413.7	1▲3	1	Oct 28	9.5 W +650	#1#25
5 Oregon Big Ten	513.2	21▼15	18	Oct 28	9.5 W +1800	#1#25
6 Texas A&M SEC	612.2	9▲1	8	Oct 28	8.5 W +2500	#1#25
7 Miami ACC	711.2	5▲2	5	Oct 28	— +800	#1#25
8 Texas Tech Big 12	810.7	13	12	Oct 28	10.5 W +2500	#1#25
9 Indiana Big Ten	910.1	4▲1	4	Oct 28	10.5 W +850	#1#25
10 BYU Big 12	1010.0	11▲4	13	Oct 28	8.5 W +8000	#1#25
11 Northwestern Big Ten	118.4	NR	NR	Oct 28	5.5 W +90000	#1#25
12 SMU ACC	128.2	16▲1	16	Oct 28	9.0 W +10000	#1#25
― On the bubble
13 Ole Miss SEC	138.1	8▲1	9	Oct 28	8.5 W +2500	#1#25
14 UTSA American Athletic	147.9	NR	NR	Oct 28	— +162500	#1#25
15 South Carolina SEC	157.8	NR	NR	Oct 28	6.5 W +12000	#1#25
16 Oklahoma SEC	167.8	24▼13	21	Oct 28	7.5 W +4000	#1#25
17 Iowa Big Ten	177.6	18▲3	20	Oct 28	7.5 W +14000	#1#25
18 Michigan Big Ten	187.5	19	19	Oct 28	7.5 W +8000	#1#25
19 Clemson ACC	197.3	NR	NR	Oct 28	7.5 W +50000	#1#25
20 Alabama SEC	207.3	10▲2	10	Oct 28	8.5 W +2500	#1#25
21 Florida SEC	217.0	NR	NR	Oct 28	7.5 W +5500	#1#25
22 LSU SEC	226.5	7▲1	7	Oct 28	9.5 W +1100	#1#25
23 Western Michigan Mid-American	236.4	NR	NR	Oct 28	— +112500	#1#25
24 Houston Big 12	246.4	22	23	Oct 28	8.0 W +25000	#1#25
25 USC Big Ten	256.3	12▲2	11	Oct 28	8.5 W +3000	#1#25

CFB Zeitgeist — composite model: power rating + schedule strength + cross-division context. AP / Coaches — official human polls; week 3 live. Committee — CFP selection committee rankings begin Oct 28 (week 10). Bettors — consensus win total + CFP futures across major sportsbooks.

Blue = our model rank Gold = Vegas rank (by win total) Orange shading = high human poll rank (1 – 5)

AP Top 25 — others receiving votes: Clemson 112; Florida 51; Boise State 43; Arizona 32; TCU 11; Navy 10; South Carolina 10; Illinois 9; Oklahoma State 8; Vanderbilt 8; Pittsburgh 7; Virginia Tech 6; Minnesota 5; Georgia Tech 4; New Mexico 4; UNLV 4; Auburn 3; James Madison 3; California 2; Memphis 2; Liberty 1; Tulane 1; Virginia 1; Western Michigan 1

Coaches Poll — others receiving votes: Louisville 153; Florida 147; TCU 63; Illinois 62; Arizona 50; South Carolina 50; Virginia 40; Vanderbilt 37; Auburn 29; Georgia Tech 26; Boise State 24; Oklahoma State 22; UNLV 17; Florida State 13; NC State 13; Nebraska 12; Virginia Tech 12; Memphis 9; Arizona State 8; Duke 6; James Madison 6; New Mexico 4; Pittsburgh 4; Navy 3; Western Michigan 3; San Diego State 2; California 1; Hawai'i 1; Jacksonville State 1; Kansas State 1

Biggest gap — Vegas above us

Colorado

+68 spots

Biggest gap — us above Vegas

UTSA

+80 spots

Books sampled

3 – 5

Consensus median · de-vigged title %

Win totals — what Vegas expects

Consensus line across major sportsbooks. The over/under on season wins before a snap is played.

Team

Projected wins

Line

Title %

Ohio State

9.5

15.4%

Notre Dame

11.5

13.3%

Texas

9.5

13.3%

Georgia

9.5

12.5%

Indiana

10.5

10.5%

LSU

9.5

8.3%

Oregon

9.5

5.3%

Texas Tech

10.5

3.8%

Alabama

8.5

3.8%

Ole Miss

8.5

3.8%

Texas A&M

8.5

3.8%

USC

8.5

3.2%

Oklahoma

7.5

2.4%

Tennessee

7.5

2.2%

Florida

7.5

1.8%

Penn State

9.5

1.5%

BYU

8.5

1.2%

Michigan

7.5

1.2%

Missouri

7.0

1.2%

SMU

9.0

1.0%

Utah

8.5

1.0%

Auburn

6.5

1.0%

Washington

7.5

0.8%

South Carolina

6.5

0.8%

Louisville

8.5

0.8%

Source: consensus median across major sportsbooks · de-vigged CFP championship futures

Model rank vs. Vegas rank

Gold dot = where Vegas ranks the team by win total. Blue dot = CFB Zeitgeist rank.

Vegas rank (win total)

CFB Zeitgeist rank

Ohio State

V#1 · #1

Notre Dame

V#2 · #2

Georgia

V#4 · #3

Texas

V#3 · #4

Oregon

V#8 · #5

Texas A&M

V#12 · #6

Miami

V#5 · #7

Texas Tech

V#9 · #8

#1#6#11#16#21

Source: CFB Zeitgeist model · consensus median across major sportsbooks

Résumé rankings

What each team has earned on the field — wins over ranked opponents, margin in key games, schedule strength. Starts populating after week 1 (Aug 29).

Available Aug 30

Fan heat index — how each fanbase is running right now. Drawn from Reddit discussion volume, sentiment, and tone across the past seven days. Offseason readings: treat direction (▲▼) as more reliable than absolute rank.

Rising this week

Portland State

▲50.0

80 pts · Cooked

Fresno State

▲45.0

99 pts · so_back

Utah

▲43.8

99 pts · so_back

Falling this week

Wake Forest

▼47.7

6 pts · Ice cold

Bowling Green

▼47.2

6 pts · Ice cold

Arizona State

▼47.1

6 pts · Ice cold

#	Team	Belief score	This week	Zone	vs. Market
1	Fresno State	99	▲45.0	so_back	—
2	Utah	99	▲43.8	so_back	—
3	Oregon State	95	▲43.5	so_back	—
4	Mississippi State	89	▲34.4	so_back	—
5	SMU	80	▲25.2	Uneasy	—
6	Rutgers	80	▲31.3	Uneasy	—
7	Louisville	80	▲29.0	Uneasy	—
8	Portland State	80	▲50.0	Cooked	—
9	Boise State	80	▲29.1	Uneasy	—
10	South Carolina	80	▲30.1	Uneasy	—
11	Cincinnati	77	▲24.0	Cooking	—
12	Clemson	75	▲29.3	Cooking	—
13	Ole Miss	75	▲26.3	Cooking	—
14	LSU	66	▲23.5	Cooking	Fans +20
15	Kansas	60	▲8.8	Uneasy	—
16	Iowa	57	▲4.2	Uneasy	—
17	Auburn	57	▲4.9	Uneasy	—
18	Florida	55	▲1.0	Uneasy	—
19	Kansas State	55	▲1.8	Uneasy	—
20	NC State	54	▲6.2	Uneasy	—
21	Oklahoma State	54	▲3.1	Uneasy	—
22	Alabama	53	▲6.2	Uneasy	Fans +60
23	Indiana	53	▼0.3	Uneasy	—
24	Georgia Tech	52	▲7.9	Uneasy	—
25	Purdue	52	▲1.6	Uneasy	—
26	California	52	▲4.5	Uneasy	—
27	USC	50	▼1.4	Uneasy	—
28	Texas	48	▼5.4	Uneasy	Mkt +20
29	Missouri	46	▲1.1	Uneasy	—
30	Ohio State	45	▼3.5	Uneasy	—
31	Texas A&M	45	▼5.1	Uneasy	Fans +40
32	Florida State	43	▲0.9	Uneasy	—
33	Michigan State	42	▼8.2	Uneasy	—
34	Wisconsin	42	▼4.8	Uneasy	—
35	Iowa State	41	▼10.5	Uneasy	—
36	Miami	40	▼12.2	Uneasy	Mkt +20
37	Washington State	40	▼9.6	Uneasy	—
38	Idaho	40	▲32.7	Ice cold	—
39	Georgia	38	▼14.6	Uneasy	Mkt +30
40	Penn State	37	▼10.5	Uneasy	—
41	Syracuse	36	▼10.8	Cooked	—
42	Oklahoma	35	▼13.1	Cooked	—
43	Notre Dame	33	▼21.5	Cooked	Mkt +60
44	Michigan	32	▼12.0	Cooked	Fans +10
45	UCF	31	▼17.1	Cooked	—
46	Maryland	30	▼20.2	Cooked	—
47	BYU	30	▼24.6	Cooked	—
48	Oregon	29	▼21.0	Cooked	Mkt +30
49	Arkansas	27	▼23.8	Cooked	—
50	North Texas	26	▼33.7	Cooked	—
51	Tennessee	24	▼27.6	Cooked	—
52	Western Michigan	16	▼26.6	Ice cold	—
53	North Carolina	14	▼39.4	Ice cold	—
54	Northern Illinois	10	▼42.2	Ice cold	—
55	Texas Tech	10	▼40.2	Ice cold	—
56	North Dakota	8	▼39.0	Ice cold	—
57	Nebraska	7	▼46.5	Ice cold	—
58	Nevada	7	▼35.5	Ice cold	—
59	Illinois	6	▼43.1	Ice cold	—
60	Wake Forest	6	▼47.7	Ice cold	—
61	Arizona State	6	▼47.1	Ice cold	—
62	Washington	6	▼39.8	Ice cold	—
63	Bowling Green	6	▼47.2	Ice cold	—
64	Minnesota	6	▼46.9	Ice cold	—
65	UConn	6	▼41.5	Ice cold	—
66	Georgetown	5	▼38.0	Ice cold	—

~ = low-signal (66 of 66 programs — offseason readings are directional, not definitive). vs. Market shows fan belief percentile minus Vegas percentile where available.

College football rankings