Through week 20, our model and the major sportsbooks already diverge on 3 teams. The biggest gap: Indiana — we have them #120, Vegas has them #2.
We believe · Vegas is not yet
Indiana
Big Ten
#120
Our model
#2
Vegas
#1#25
We have them #120. Vegas has them #2 (+750) — 118 spots behind us.
Vegas is in · we're skeptical
Oregon State
Pac-12
#8
Our model
#122
Vegas
#1#25
4.0 projected wins. Our model has them #8 — 114 spots lower.
We believe · Vegas is not yet
Miami
ACC
#108
Our model
#4
Vegas
#1#25
We have them #108. Vegas has them #4 (+1200) — 104 spots behind us.
Polls & our model
Live
Bettors
Live
Résumé
After wk 1
Belief
Live
Team
Our model
Human polls
Bettors
Gap track (rank 1 → 25)
| Team | CFB Index▲ | AP | Coaches | Committee | Win total | us vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
Georgia
SEC
|
111.3 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
9.5 W
+850
|
#1#25
|
|
2
Alabama
SEC
|
28.3 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.5 W
+2200
|
#1#25
|
|
3
Tennessee
SEC
|
36.9 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+5000
|
#1#25
|
|
4
Penn State
Big Ten
|
46.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.5 W
+5000
|
#1#25
|
|
5
Michigan
Big Ten
|
56.5 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.5 W
+3500
|
#1#25
|
|
6
Ohio State
Big Ten
|
66.0 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
9.5 W
+600
|
#1#25
|
|
7
Fresno State
Mountain West
|
75.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+100000
|
#1#25
|
|
8
Oregon State
Pac-12
|
85.5 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
4.0 W
+150000
|
#1#25
|
|
9
LSU
SEC
|
95.2 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.5 W
+1600
|
#1#25
|
|
10
Florida State
ACC
|
105.0 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
6.5 W
+18000
|
#1#25
|
|
11
Utah
Pac-12
|
115.0 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.5 W
+10000
|
#1#25
|
|
12
Tulane
American Athletic
|
124.5 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+30000
|
#1#25
|
| ― On the bubble | ||||||
|
13
Air Force
Mountain West
|
134.3 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
6.5 W
+100000
|
#1#25
|
|
14
Clemson
ACC
|
144.1 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+8000
|
#1#25
|
|
15
Troy
Sun Belt
|
154.1 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
6.5 W
+150000
|
#1#25
|
|
16
Louisville
ACC
|
164.1 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+12500
|
#1#25
|
|
17
UTSA
Conference USA
|
174.1 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+150000
|
#1#25
|
|
18
Boise State
Mountain West
|
183.8 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
8.0 W
+30000
|
#1#25
|
|
19
Memphis
American Athletic
|
193.8 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+60000
|
#1#25
|
|
20
Notre Dame
FBS Independents
|
203.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
11.5 W
+650
|
#1#25
|
|
21
Washington
Pac-12
|
213.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+10000
|
#1#25
|
|
22
Texas
Big 12
|
223.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
9.5 W
+750
|
#1#25
|
|
23
Oregon
Pac-12
|
233.7 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
10.5 W
+800
|
#1#25
|
|
24
Duke
ACC
|
243.5 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
5.5 W
+40000
|
#1#25
|
|
25
Iowa
Big Ten
|
253.4 | Aug 11 |
Aug 11 |
Oct 28 |
7.5 W
+12000
|
#1#25
|
CFB Index — composite model: power rating + schedule strength + cross-division context.
AP / Coaches — official human polls; preseason editions release Aug 11.
Committee — CFP selection committee rankings begin Oct 28 (week 10).
Bettors — consensus win total + CFP futures across major sportsbooks.
Blue = our model rank
Gold = Vegas rank (by win total)
Orange shading = high human poll rank (1 – 5)
Biggest gap — Vegas above us
Indiana
+118 spots
Biggest gap — us above Vegas
Oregon State
+114 spots
Books sampled
3 – 5
Consensus median · de-vigged title %
Win totals — what Vegas expects
Consensus line across major sportsbooks.
The over/under on season wins before a snap is played.
Team
Projected wins
Line
Title %
Notre Dame
11.5
13.3%
Indiana
10.5
11.8%
Oregon
10.5
11.1%
Miami
10.5
7.7%
Texas Tech
10.5
4.8%
Ohio State
9.5
14.3%
Texas
9.5
11.8%
Georgia
9.5
10.5%
north-dakota-state
9.5
—
LSU
8.5
5.9%
Texas A&M
8.5
5.3%
Alabama
8.5
4.3%
Michigan
8.5
2.8%
USC
8.5
2.8%
Penn State
8.5
2.0%
BYU
8.5
1.1%
Utah
8.5
1.0%
SMU
8.5
0.8%
Kansas State
8.5
0.5%
south-florida
8.5
0.2%
James Madison
8.5
0.1%
Liberty
8.5
0.1%
Boise State
8.0
0.3%
Ole Miss
7.5
3.2%
Oklahoma
7.5
3.2%
Source: consensus median across major sportsbooks ·
de-vigged CFP championship futures
Model rank vs. Vegas rank
Gold dot = where Vegas ranks the team by win total. Blue dot = CFB Index rank.
Vegas rank (win total)
CFB Index rank
Georgia
V#8 · #1
Alabama
V#12 · #2
Tennessee
V#27 · #3
Penn State
V#15 · #4
Michigan
V#13 · #5
Ohio State
V#6 · #6
Fresno State
V#48 · #7
Oregon State
V#122 · #8
#1#6#11#16#21
Source: CFB Index model · consensus median across major sportsbooks
Résumé rankings
What each team has earned on the field — wins over ranked opponents,
margin in key games, schedule strength. Starts populating after week 1 (Aug 29).
Available Aug 30
Fan heat index — how each fanbase is running right now. Drawn from Reddit discussion volume,
sentiment, and tone across the past seven days. Offseason readings: treat direction (▲▼) as more reliable than absolute rank.
Rising this week
Bryant
▲78.2
100 pts · so_back
Lamar
▲66.5
100 pts · so_back
Sam Houston
▲64.4
70 pts · Cooking
Falling this week
Boise State
▼38.5
58 pts · Uneasy
Michigan State
▼29.3
46 pts · Uneasy
San José State
▼22.1
44 pts · Uneasy
| # | Team | Belief score | This week | Zone | vs. Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryant | 100 | ▲78.2 | so_back | — |
| 2 | Drake | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 3 | Elon | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 4 | Shorter | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 5 | Pennsylvania | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 6 | Chattanooga | 100 | ▲44.7 | so_back | — |
| 7 | Shepherd | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 8 | Pace | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 9 | Princeton | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 10 | Cornell | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 11 | Quincy | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 12 | Allen | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 13 | Eastern Illinois | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 14 | Austin Peay | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 15 | Lamar | 100 | ▲66.5 | so_back | — |
| 16 | Aurora | 100 | — | so_back | — |
| 17 | Assumption | 99 | — | so_back | — |
| 18 | North Greenville | 99 | — | so_back | — |
| 19 | ERSKINE | 99 | — | so_back | — |
| 20 | St John Fisher University | 96 | — | so_back | — |
| 21 | Indiana State | 95 | — | so_back | — |
| 22 | Brown | 94 | ▲18.0 | so_back | — |
| 23 | Williams | 92 | ▲47.1 | so_back | — |
| 24 | Taylor | 90 | ▲1.9 | so_back | — |
| 25 | Texas Lutheran | 89 | — | so_back | — |
| 26 | Wilson | 88 | — | so_back | — |
| 27 | Central Michigan | 88 | ▼9.3 | so_back | — |
| 28 | Reading | 88 | — | so_back | — |
| 29 | Chicago | 87 | — | so_back | — |
| 30 | Hampton | 85 | — | so_back | — |
| 31 | Catholic | 82 | — | so_back | — |
| 32 | Capital | 82 | — | so_back | — |
| 33 | Western Carolina | 81 | — | so_back | — |
| 34 | Navy | 80 | ▲7.6 | Cooking | — |
| 35 | Austin | 80 | ▲14.9 | Cooking | — |
| 36 | Stetson | 80 | — | Cooking | — |
| 37 | Northern Illinois | 76 | ▲8.4 | Cooking | — |
| 38 | Louisiana | 73 | ▲18.8 | Cooking | — |
| 39 | West Texas A&M | 72 | — | Cooking | — |
| 40 | Jackson State | 72 | ▼12.6 | Cooking | — |
| 41 | Stanford | 72 | ▲2.5 | Cooking | — |
| 42 | New Mexico State | 72 | — | Cooking | — |
| 43 | Tulsa | 71 | ▲6.2 | Cooking | — |
| 44 | Washington | 71 | ▲9.9 | Cooking | — |
| 45 | Sam Houston | 70 | ▲64.4 | Cooking | — |
| 46 | South Dakota State | 70 | — | Cooking | — |
| 47 | Miami (OH) | 69 | — | Cooking | — |
| 48 | Howard | 69 | ▼15.8 | Cooking | — |
| 49 | Campbell | 69 | ▲36.1 | Cooking | — |
| 50 | Louisville | 68 | ▲27.9 | Cooking | — |
| 51 | Florida Atlantic | 68 | ▲57.1 | Cooking | — |
| 52 | Troy | 67 | ▼1.6 | Cooking | — |
| 53 | Marshall | 67 | ▲19.0 | Cooking | — |
| 54 | Virginia Tech | 67 | ▼0.2 | Cooking | — |
| 55 | Arizona | 67 | ▲7.3 | Cooking | — |
| 56 | Houston | 66 | ▲8.1 | Cooking | — |
| 57 | Bowling Green | 66 | — | Cooking | — |
| 58 | Missouri | 66 | ▲26.7 | Cooking | — |
| 59 | Miami | 66 | ▲3.3 | Cooking | Fans +40 |
| 60 | Kentucky | 65 | ▲4.5 | Cooking | — |
| 61 | Mississippi State | 65 | ▲2.6 | Cooking | — |
| 62 | Auburn | 65 | ▲7.2 | Cooking | — |
| 63 | Phoenix | 65 | — | Cooking | — |
| 64 | Harvard | 65 | — | Cooking | — |
| 65 | North Dakota State | 65 | ▲4.9 | Cooking | — |
| 66 | Louisiana Tech | 65 | ▲1.8 | Cooking | — |
| 67 | UAB | 64 | ▲5.0 | Cooking | — |
| 68 | Franklin | 64 | ▲28.2 | Cooking | — |
| 69 | East Carolina | 64 | — | Cooking | — |
| 70 | Alabama | 63 | ▲0.5 | Cooking | Fans +50 |
| 71 | Virginia | 63 | ▲0.9 | Cooking | — |
| 72 | UConn | 63 | ▲10.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 73 | Purdue | 63 | ▼7.3 | Cooking | — |
| 74 | Western Kentucky | 63 | — | Cooking | — |
| 75 | Tennessee | 62 | ▼15.7 | Cooking | — |
| 76 | Idaho | 62 | — | Cooking | — |
| 77 | Tulane | 62 | ▲17.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 78 | Oklahoma | 62 | ▲17.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 79 | Ohio | 62 | ▲24.1 | Cooked | — |
| 80 | Texas A&M | 62 | ▲8.5 | Uneasy | Fans +50 |
| 81 | Temple | 62 | ▼0.3 | Cooking | — |
| 82 | Duke | 62 | ▼0.7 | Cooking | — |
| 83 | Air Force | 62 | ▼6.4 | Cooking | — |
| 84 | Illinois | 62 | ▼4.2 | Cooking | — |
| 85 | Utah State | 62 | ▲2.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 86 | South Carolina | 62 | ▼4.0 | Cooking | — |
| 87 | Southern Miss | 62 | ▲25.9 | Cooked | — |
| 88 | Montana State | 62 | — | Cooking | — |
| 89 | South Florida | 62 | ▲9.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 90 | Oregon State | 62 | ▲55.8 | Ice cold | — |
| 91 | Rutgers | 61 | ▲2.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 92 | Liberty | 61 | ▼3.7 | Cooking | — |
| 93 | Massachusetts | 61 | ▲6.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 94 | Georgia | 61 | ▲2.5 | Uneasy | Fans +20 |
| 95 | Akron | 61 | ▲1.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 96 | Hawai'i | 61 | ▼0.1 | Cooking | — |
| 97 | Rice | 61 | ▼0.6 | Cooking | — |
| 98 | Washington State | 61 | ▼0.4 | Cooking | — |
| 99 | North Texas | 61 | ▼4.4 | Cooking | — |
| 100 | Oregon | 61 | — | Cooking | Mkt +20 |
| 101 | Wisconsin | 60 | ▼7.4 | Cooking | — |
| 102 | Texas State | 60 | ▲52.8 | Ice cold | — |
| 103 | Arkansas | 60 | ▼2.9 | Cooking | — |
| 104 | Baylor | 60 | ▼4.4 | Cooking | — |
| 105 | Eastern Michigan | 60 | — | Cooking | — |
| 106 | Utah Tech | 60 | — | Cooking | — |
| 107 | Luther | 60 | — | Cooking | — |
| 108 | TCU | 60 | ▼4.5 | Cooking | — |
| 109 | Colorado State | 60 | ▼5.1 | Cooking | — |
| 110 | Kent State | 60 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 111 | James Madison | 60 | ▲14.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 112 | UTSA | 60 | ▼0.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 113 | Florida | 59 | ▲0.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 114 | Iowa | 59 | ▲0.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 115 | Nevada | 59 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 116 | Penn State | 59 | ▼1.9 | Cooking | — |
| 117 | Army | 59 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 118 | Florida International | 59 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 119 | Maryland | 59 | ▼3.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 120 | Kansas | 59 | ▼7.5 | Cooking | — |
| 121 | LSU | 59 | ▼1.4 | Cooking | Fans +20 |
| 122 | Indiana | 58 | ▼1.5 | Cooking | — |
| 123 | South Alabama | 58 | ▲13.4 | Uneasy | — |
| 124 | UCLA | 58 | ▲0.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 125 | SMU | 58 | ▲38.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 126 | Utah | 58 | ▼6.7 | Cooking | — |
| 127 | Boise State | 58 | ▼38.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 128 | Georgia Tech | 58 | ▼2.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 129 | Fresno State | 58 | ▲29.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 130 | Wake Forest | 58 | ▼5.6 | Cooking | — |
| 131 | Wyoming | 58 | ▼7.5 | Cooking | — |
| 132 | Toledo | 57 | ▼20.4 | Cooking | — |
| 133 | Georgia Southern | 57 | ▼0.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 134 | UL Monroe | 57 | ▲1.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 135 | Memphis | 57 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 136 | Colorado | 57 | ▲27.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 137 | USC | 56 | ▲1.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 138 | Ole Miss | 56 | ▲6.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 139 | Kansas State | 56 | ▲2.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 140 | Vanderbilt | 56 | ▼18.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 141 | Minnesota | 56 | ▲13.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 142 | Oklahoma State | 56 | ▲24.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 143 | Nebraska | 56 | ▼5.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 144 | Syracuse | 56 | ▲10.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 145 | Missouri State | 56 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 146 | Buffalo | 55 | ▼10.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 147 | Ohio State | 55 | ▼1.0 | Uneasy | Mkt +50 |
| 148 | New Hampshire | 55 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 149 | Emory & Henry College | 55 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 150 | Northwestern | 55 | ▼4.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 151 | Coastal Carolina | 55 | ▼15.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 152 | Texas | 54 | ▲8.5 | Uneasy | Mkt +40 |
| 153 | Middle Tennessee | 54 | ▲0.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 154 | North Carolina | 54 | ▼16.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 155 | Western Michigan | 54 | ▼18.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 156 | UTEP | 53 | ▼7.8 | Uneasy | — |
| 157 | NC State | 52 | ▼1.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 158 | California | 52 | ▲0.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 159 | Michigan | 52 | ▲5.4 | Uneasy | Fans +10 |
| 160 | New Mexico | 52 | ▼13.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 161 | Clemson | 52 | ▼9.0 | Uneasy | — |
| 162 | Notre Dame | 52 | ▼8.3 | Uneasy | Mkt +90 |
| 163 | Ball State | 52 | ▼5.0 | Uneasy | — |
| 164 | UNLV | 52 | ▼1.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 165 | San Diego State | 51 | ▼13.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 166 | Boston College | 51 | ▲6.0 | Uneasy | — |
| 167 | BYU | 51 | ▲6.5 | Uneasy | — |
| 168 | Georgia State | 50 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 169 | Jacksonville State | 50 | ▼20.0 | Uneasy | — |
| 170 | Florida State | 50 | ▲2.9 | Uneasy | — |
| 171 | Pittsburgh | 50 | ▲4.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 172 | Arizona State | 49 | ▲1.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 173 | Sacramento State | 49 | ▼17.6 | Uneasy | — |
| 174 | Iowa State | 49 | ▼2.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 175 | Delaware | 48 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 176 | App State | 48 | ▼0.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 177 | Kennesaw State | 48 | ▲1.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 178 | Michigan State | 46 | ▼29.3 | Uneasy | — |
| 179 | Charlotte | 46 | ▲0.7 | Uneasy | — |
| 180 | West Virginia | 46 | ▼15.4 | Uneasy | — |
| 181 | San José State | 44 | ▼22.1 | Uneasy | — |
| 182 | UCF | 40 | ▼18.2 | Uneasy | — |
| 183 | Illinois State | 40 | — | Uneasy | — |
| 184 | Abilene Christian | 39 | — | Cooked | — |
| 185 | Texas Tech | 39 | ▲13.4 | Cooked | — |
| 186 | North Dakota | 38 | — | Cooked | — |
| 187 | West Georgia | 36 | — | Cooked | — |
| 188 | Cincinnati | 35 | ▼19.6 | Cooked | — |
| 189 | Oberlin | 34 | — | Cooked | — |
| 190 | Old Dominion | 33 | — | Cooked | — |
| 191 | Clarion | 31 | — | Cooked | — |
| 192 | Alma | 30 | ▼9.5 | Cooked | — |
| 193 | Angelo State | 25 | — | Cooked | — |
| 194 | Arkansas State | 21 | — | Cooked | — |
| 195 | Northern Iowa | 19 | — | Ice cold | — |
| 196 | Fordham | 11 | — | Ice cold | — |
| 197 | Prairie View A&M | 11 | — | Ice cold | — |
| 198 | William & Mary | 6 | — | Ice cold | — |
| 199 | Little Rock | 6 | — | Ice cold | — |
~ = low-signal (181 of 199 programs — offseason readings are directional, not definitive). vs. Market shows fan belief percentile minus Vegas percentile where available.