The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Texas State 38%, Utah State 52%
Win out 17% · expect 1.7 of 3 more wins
Fresno State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Utah State 52%, Texas State 38%, Colorado State 84%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 8% to 8%, peaking at 22% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Pac-12 · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jayden Mandal 1,595 · Rushing Bryson Donelson 407 · Receiving Josiah Freeman 512 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Fresno State:athletics sitePac-12
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #53 | #28 | +21.5✗ −17.5 | @USC | L 0-39 112 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Mandal 77 · Rush Luke 21 · Rec Duvall 34 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #51 | #130 | −17.5✓ +28.5 | Sacramento State | W 49-3 128 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Mandal 316 · Rush Donelson 102 · Rec Avit 103 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #55 | #126 | −4✓ +12 | @San José State | W 26-10 138 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Mandal 186 · Rush Donelson 57 · Rec Freeman 95 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #53 | #147 | −12.5✓ +1.5 | Rice | W 38-24 131 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Mandal 210 · Rush Luke 167 · Rec Freeman 66 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #54 | #50 | +2.5✓ +22.5 | @Washington State | W 26-6 126 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Mandal 245 · Rush Luke 46 · Rec Freeman 61 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #49 | #13 | +8.5✓ +1.5 | Boise State | L 31-38 130 | 4-2 | 1-1 | Pass Mandal 218 · Rush Donelson 31 · Rec Avit 96 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #46 | #94 | −6.5✗ −9.5 | @San Diego State | L 23-26 127 | 4-3 | 1-2 | Pass Mandal 141 · Rush Donelson 62 · Rec Freeman 49 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #58 | #26 | +6✓ +22 | Oregon State | W 38-22 143 | 5-3 | 2-2 | Pass Mandal 202 · Rush Donelson 108 · Rec Freeman 88 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #49 | #57 | −2.5 | @Utah State | 9:30 pm ET · USA Network52% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #48 | #32 | @Texas State | 4 pm ET · The CW38% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Colorado State | 7:30 pm ET · The CW84% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Fresno State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Fresno State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Oregon State | W 38-22 | 392 | 1 | 29:11 | +0.174 | 36.8% | 1.68 | Most explosive |
| Oct 17 | @San Diego State | L 23-26 | 276 | 1 | 31:34 | -0.061 | 43.3% | 0.94 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | Boise State | L 31-38 | 346 | 0 | 21:04 | +0.355 | 49.0% | 1.44 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | @Washington State | W 26-6 | 375 | 1 | 35:59 | +0.079 | 41.2% | 1.00 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | Rice | W 38-24 | 459 | 0 | 32:38 | +0.239 | 42.9% | 1.51 | |
| Sep 19 | @San José State | W 26-10 | 354 | 0 | 33:52 | +0.036 | 30.4% | 1.47 | |
| Sep 12 | Sacramento State | W 49-3 | 542 | 0 | 31:13 | +0.390 | 47.7% | 1.45 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 4 | @USC | L 0-39 | 116 | 2 | 21:08 | -0.336 | 22.2% | 1.04 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 358 | 0.6 | +0.110 | 39.2% | 1.32 | ||||
Fresno State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.
He shows up every day. He’s great without the football, all the little things. I can’t say enough about Speedy and just his approach to the game and how valuable he is to the people in that locker room.
2% now · ▲ 1 point in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for Texas State over Oregon State
Sat 10:30 pm · Moves Fresno State’s conference title chance by 4 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · Fresno State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 5%; 6 wins 33%; 7 wins 46%; 8 wins 17%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Pac-12 teams the same season
Fresno State is the Valley program whose whole identity is a dare — Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere — and it just answered a down stretch with a nine-win bowl-winning season and a ticket to the Pac-12.
Bulldog fans built a whole ethos around it: Fresno would drive into anybody's stadium and dare the name-brand programs to schedule them back. They say the giants ducked the Valley for years, and the…
Fresno State · Game-day weather
Typical at Valley Children's Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 83
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Fresno State is the Mountain West program whose 1980s-2000s Pat Hill era + 'Anyone, Anytime, Anywhere' scheduling + Derek Carr / David Carr QB pipeline define what California-G5-football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
54th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Fresno State · 2026