Before kickoff, our ratings gave Fresno State a 36% chance, and the closing betting line (Fresno State was a 6-point underdog) put it at 31%.
Fresno State won by 16, after dipping to 30% in the first quarter.
Up to 70% in the first quarter, then Oregon State lost it.
FinalFresno State 38-22 Oregon StateFresno State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.06 in of rain
FinalOregon State 22-38 Fresno StateOregon State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.06 in of rain
The two plays that swung it
1Q1 1:47Mandal 15-yd TD run, Fresno State goes ahead 7-3Fresno State 37% → 58% (+21)
2Q2 11:10Donelson 63-yd TD run, Fresno State leads 14-6Fresno State 51% → 74% (+23)
The two plays that swung it
1Q1 1:47Mandal 15-yd TD run, Fresno State goes ahead 7-3Oregon State 63% → 42% (−21)
2Q2 11:10Donelson 63-yd TD run, Fresno State leads 14-6Oregon State 49% → 26% (−23)
Fresno State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Oregon State -6), at 42% for Fresno State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Fresno State or Oregon State flair (135 and 311); both sides share one scale, regulation only.The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.06 in of rain, heaviest in the third quarter. Measured at Fresno Air Terminal airport, 3.2 miles away. Full conditions below.
Every drive
Fresno State scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Oregon State on 5 of its 12.
Fresno State’s drives are teal, Oregon State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Oregon State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 15% to 9%.
Make the playoff
Oregon State · lost15% → ▼9%
Fresno State · won1% → 1%
Win the conference
Oregon State · lost34% → ▼29%
Fresno State · won4% → ▲6%
Before the game (October 31, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Oregon State plays vs Texas State on Sat Nov 7 with a 9% chance to make the playoff. Fresno State plays at Utah State on Sat Nov 7 with a 6% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Fresno State 38, Oregon State 22
Fresno State covered +6 by 22. The total, 60, went over 57.5.
Team totals
Oregon State
Fresno State
Total yards
450
392
Passing
33 of 59, 373 yds
11 of 17, 202 yds
Rushing
28 for 77 yds
39 for 190 yds
First downs
25
15
Third down
6 of 17
5 of 11
Fourth down
2 of 5
0 of 0
Turnovers
2
1
Penalties
6 for 30 yds
2 for 17 yds
Time of possession
30:49
29:11
Oregon State leaders
Passing Braden Atkinson 33 of 59, 373 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Cornell Hatcher Jr. 9 for 53 yds, 1 TD; AJ Newberry 7 for 34 yds
Receiving D.C. Temple 6 for 97 yds; Eric Olsen 7 for 71 yds, 1 TD
Fresno State leaders
Passing Jayden Mandal 11 of 17, 202 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Bryson Donelson 16 for 108 yds, 1 TD; Rayshon Luke 9 for 44 yds
Receiving Josiah Freeman 6 for 88 yds, 2 TD; Jahlil McClain 1 for 48 yds
Rain for part of the game
63° at kickoff · 0.06 in of rain · wind 3 mph from the south, gusts to 9
Oregon State 6, Fresno State 14 · Fresno State 74% to win
no rain · wind 2 mph from the south · 64°
Donelson 63-yd TD run, Fresno State leads 14-6
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Fresno Air Terminal airport, 3.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Oregon State · 5-2
Rated 69th in our preseason ratings, 26th now, up 43 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oregon State’s success rate against Fresno State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 89th percentile · Fresno State defense, 36th
Oregon State’s passing EPA against Fresno State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 90th percentile · Fresno State defense, 58th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Oregon StateFresno State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Fresno State leads the series 9-6
15 meetings since 1981 · Fresno State won the last meeting
2025Fresno State 36-27
2022Oregon State 35-32
2003Fresno State 16-14
2002Oregon State 59-19
2001Fresno State 44-24
Each line is Fresno State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Fresno State fans are in a better mood than Oregon State fans (27th percentile vs 12th among FBS fanbases), even with Oregon State favored.
Oregon State favored by 6 · Total 57.5
How games like this usually go
Oregon State by 6, on the usual path until Q2 11:10
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Fresno State.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +7 → +6 · Total: 56.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Fresno State is worth +4.8 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 61st percentile.
70% at home, 54% on the road against FBS opponents (30-13 home, 28-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 566 miles to get here.
Fresno State 38-22 Oregon State
Fresno State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.06 in of rain