The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Montana State 20%, Idaho State 68%
Win out 13% · expect 1.9 of 3 more wins
Montana's chance to win each game left, from our model: Portland State 97%, Idaho State 68%, Montana State 20%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Keali'i Ah Yat 2,606 · Rushing Eli Gillman 1,161 · Receiving Brooks Davis 1,139 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Southern Utah | W 28-21 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Yat 264 · Rush Gillman 76 · Rec Gillman 93 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Drake | W 45-10 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Yat 282 · Rush Gillman 105 · Rec Ransom-Goelz 101 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Utah Tech | W 35-14 | 3-0 | 2-0 | Pass Yat 246 · Rush Gillman 147 · Rec Davis 151 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Oregon State | L 17-52 140 | 3-1 | 2-0 | Pass Yat 215 · Rush Gillman 81 · Rec Davis 135 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @UC Davis | W 62-22 | 4-1 | 3-0 | Pass Yat 241 · Rush Gillman 275 · Rec Davis 121 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Northern Colorado | W 36-14 | 5-1 | 4-0 | Pass Yat 346 · Rush Gillman 99 · Rec Davis 205 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Northern Arizona | L 44-49 | 5-2 | 4-1 | Pass Yat 347 · Rush Gillman 94 · Rec Ransom-Goelz 128 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Idaho | L 35-42 | 5-3 | 4-2 | Pass Yat 338 · Rush Gillman 139 · Rec Davis 104 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Eastern Washington | W 42-33 | 6-3 | 5-2 | Pass Yat 327 · Rush Gillman 145 · Rec Davis 231 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Portland State | 3 pm ET97% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Idaho State | 10:30 pm ET · ESPN268% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Montana State | 2 pm ET20% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Montana, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Eastern Washington | W 42-33 | — | — | — | +0.196 | 52.4% | 1.25 | |
| Oct 17 | Idaho | L 35-42 | — | — | — | +0.478 | 58.3% | 1.31 | Best success rate |
| Oct 10 | @Northern Arizona | L 44-49 | — | — | — | +0.310 | 55.1% | 1.17 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | Northern Colorado | W 36-14 | — | — | — | +0.427 | 56.1% | 1.38 | |
| Sep 26 | @UC Davis | W 62-22 | — | — | — | +0.516 | 53.2% | 1.36 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Oregon State | L 17-52 | 338 | 2 | 30:53 | +0.056 | 40.3% | 1.06 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Utah Tech | W 35-14 | — | — | — | +0.220 | 40.6% | 1.44 | |
| Sep 5 | Drake | W 45-10 | — | — | — | +0.297 | 57.1% | 0.84 | Best defensive stand |
| Aug 29 | Southern Utah | W 28-21 | — | — | — | +0.224 | 40.4% | 1.52 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | 338 | 2.0 | +0.303 | 50.4% | 1.26 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Montana · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 27%; 8 wins 59%; 9 wins 13%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-3
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season
A storied dynasty program confronting an unexpected transition, uncertain whether elite winning cultures sustain without their architect.
Montana is 6-3 and hosts Portland State next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Montana · 2026