The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Montana State 18%, Montana 32%, Idaho 58%
Win out 3% · expect 1.1 of 3 more wins
Idaho State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Montana State 18%, Montana 32%, Idaho 58%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Jordan Cooke 2,199 · Rushing Tytan Mason 477 · Receiving Julian Mason 583 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | VMI | W 38-10 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Cooke 325 · Rush Brooks 24 · Rec Aragon 97 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Utah State | W 29-17 151 Roaring | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Cooke 152 · Rush Sudbury 37 · Rec Mason 75 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | San Diego | W 59-17 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Cooke 331 · Rush Mason 60 · Rec Anahu-Ambrosio 195 |
| 3 | Bye week | |||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Southern Utah | W 28-24 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Cooke 203 · Rush Mason 94 · Rec James 134 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Northern Arizona | L 31-38 | 4-1 | 1-1 | Pass Cooke 385 · Rush Mason 67 · Rec James 97 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Cal Poly | L 24-25 | 4-2 | 1-2 | Pass Cooke 238 · Rush Mason 72 · Rec Poe 108 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Weber State | L 20-27 | 4-3 | 1-3 | Pass Harsin 145 · Rush Harsin 83 · Rec Mason 82 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Portland State | W 38-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | Pass Cooke 334 · Rush Mason 101 · Rec Poe 121 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Utah Tech | W 34-27 | 6-3 | 3-3 | Pass Cooke 178 · Rush Mason 35 · Rec Poe 96 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Montana State | 6 pm ET18% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Montana | 10:30 pm ET · ESPN232% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Idaho | 6 pm ET58% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Idaho State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Utah Tech | W 34-27 | — | — | — | −0.003 | 40.7% | 1.08 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | Portland State | W 38-8 | — | — | — | +0.198 | 45.9% | 1.40 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | @Weber State | L 20-27 | — | — | — | −0.282 | 39.0% | 1.06 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Cal Poly | L 24-25 | — | — | — | −0.025 | 33.3% | 1.42 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | Northern Arizona | L 31-38 | — | — | — | +0.261 | 57.0% | 1.23 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | @Southern Utah | W 28-24 | — | — | — | +0.037 | 40.6% | 1.57 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | San Diego | W 59-17 | — | — | — | +0.663 | 56.1% | 1.65 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Utah State | W 29-17 | 241 | 0 | 26:27 | +0.034 | 35.4% | 1.10 | |
| Aug 29 | VMI | W 38-10 | — | — | — | +0.208 | 46.2% | 1.25 | Blowout win |
| Season average (9 games) | 241 | 0.0 | +0.121 | 43.8% | 1.31 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Idaho State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 23%; 7 wins 48%; 8 wins 25%; 9 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-3
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Sky teams the same season
Idaho State is 6-3 and hosts Montana State next.
Idaho State is 6-3 and hosts Montana State next.
Range of outcomes · Idaho State · 2026