THE LEAD· NOTRE DAME · BEEF

Something set off the Notre Dame faithful — and the receipts are in the comments.

OPENING ODDS: Notre Dame is a massive home favorite against Michigan State

Fan belief ↓22 this weekReddit r/CFB2d ago
FAN BELIEF INDEX
33-22
From 13 posts measured in the latest pulse.
OUR POWER RANK
No. 2
Where our 2026 power ratings have them.
MARKET WIN TOTAL
11.5
Opened 11.5. The line hasn't budged.
WHAT DECIDES IT
SCHEDULETwo of the next four are on the road. None of them is currently ranked. The window closes Oct 10.scheduled
THE ROOMThe room is with them — fan sentiment sits 69th percentile among FBS fanbases this week, across 1,798 mentions.our readHigh confidence · n=1798
OUR CALLThe market is higher on them than the room is. Polymarket priced Notre Dame at 13.5% to win the title on Sep 14. That is the 1st-widest market-over-fans gap in our 10-team contender cohort.our readLow confidence
Read the source →The full Notre Dame storyline →The whole wire →
WHAT THE ROOM IS SAYING ABOUT NOTRE DAME

“Only theory is home field advantage is worth 3ish points in a lot of these metrics so Texas "only" wining by 1 may have hurt them slightly”

Reddit r/CFB

“I once passed a kidney stone at Notre Dame Stadium and accidentally started in one and filled the whole thing with blood. People probably thought I was dying. Then we lost on top of that.…”

r/CFB · 415 upvotes · 2026-09-03
Welcome back

Also moving this morning

Illinois · NewsCollin Dixon: 11 rec · 166 yds · 3 TD vs Duke-43Top 1% catches game since 2021. vs Duke (FBS) L 27-31.Wire · 3d agoTexas · Saturday Down SouthMatthew McConaughey narrates Texas hype video ahead of Ohio State gameNews · 4d agoOhio State · BeefSomething set off the Ohio State faithful70pt gapand the receipts are in the comments.Reddit r/CFB · 2d ago

The wirelast 2 days

MarketCentral Michigan: MAC title odds: +1000 → +1600 (▼3.2pp implied)YesterdayMarketDelaware: C-USA title odds: +595 → +425 (▲4.7pp implied)YesterdayMarketLiberty: C-USA title odds: +240 → +337 (▼6.5pp implied)YesterdayMarketNavy: AAC title odds: +412 → +825 (▼8.7pp implied)YesterdayMarketNorth Dakota State: Mountain West title odds: +237 → +200 (▲3.7pp implied)YesterdayMarketNorth Texas: AAC title odds: +2600 → +1200 (▲4.0pp implied)YesterdayMarketTulsa: AAC title odds: +1625 → +900 (▲4.2pp implied)YesterdayMarketUNLV: Mountain West title odds: +260 → +337 (▼4.9pp implied)Yesterday
All wire items →

The playoff forecast High confidence

13%
Texas A&M
champion — our model

Texas A&M leads our model — but the market isn't as sold yet

Field shape

Where the championship mass sits

13% favorite · 36% chasers · 33% rest of field · 18% everyone else

Favorite: 13%Chasers (ranked 2-4): 36%Rest of the field (5-12): 33%Everyone else: 18%
Source Our model, 20,000 season simulations
missed fieldfirst roundquarterfinalsemifinalfinalchampion
Texas A&MSECmissed field: 20%first round: 9%quarterfinal: 28%semifinal: 18%final: 11%champion: 13%13%mkt 3+10 ⚠
GeorgiaSECmissed field: 26%first round: 9%quarterfinal: 26%semifinal: 17%final: 10%champion: 13%13%mkt 9+4 ⚠
Notre DameFBS Independentsmissed field: 33%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 22%semifinal: 14%final: 8%champion: 12%12%mkt 10
Ohio StateBig Tenmissed field: 33%first round: 9%quarterfinal: 24%semifinal: 15%final: 9%champion: 11%11%mkt 11
AlabamaSECmissed field: 28%first round: 10%quarterfinal: 26%semifinal: 16%final: 9%champion: 11%11%mkt 3+8 ⚠
TexasSECmissed field: 31%first round: 12%quarterfinal: 28%semifinal: 15%final: 7%champion: 6%6%mkt 10−4 ⚠
Show all 12 teams+159 more
USCBig Tenmissed field: 55%first round: 10%quarterfinal: 18%semifinal: 9%final: 4%champion: 4%4%mkt 2
TennesseeSECmissed field: 58%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 16%semifinal: 8%final: 4%champion: 3%3%mkt 2
LSUSECmissed field: 61%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 15%semifinal: 8%final: 3%champion: 3%3%mkt 6−3 ⚠
Ole MissSECmissed field: 62%first round: 10%quarterfinal: 15%semifinal: 7%final: 3%champion: 3%3%mkt 3
FloridaSECmissed field: 62%first round: 11%quarterfinal: 15%semifinal: 7%final: 3%champion: 2%2%mkt 1
MissouriSECmissed field: 60%first round: 12%quarterfinal: 16%semifinal: 7%final: 3%champion: 2%2%mkt 1
Full bubble watch →
How we forecast

Our model runs 20,000 season simulations using team strength ratings and schedule difficulty. The percentage shown is our championship probability.

The mkt figure is aggregated from major sportsbooks with the house margin removed — what bettors collectively believe. Large gaps are worth watching.

Bars desaturate early in the season and sharpen as games are played. Full methodology →

Conference odds
ModelMkt
Texas A&M13%3%
Georgia13%9%
Notre Dame12%10%
Ohio State11%11%
Alabama11%3%
Texas6%10%
Full bubble watch →