The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 8 Kentucky 50%, Oklahoma 60%
Win out 19% · expect 2.7 of 4 more wins
Florida's chance to win each game left, from our model: Oklahoma 60%, Kentucky 50%, Vanderbilt 88%, Florida State 75%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 15% to 22%, peaking at 62% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 9th in the SEC · 3-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Aaron Philo 1,367 · Rushing Jadan Baugh 801 · Receiving Dallas Wilson 417 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Florida:athletics siteSECX@FloridaGatorsYouTubeInstagram@FloridaGators
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #22 | #108 | −26.5✓ +18.5 | Florida Atlantic | W 66-21 157 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Philo 275 · Rush Baugh 160 · Rec Brown III 117 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #23 | #225 | −51.5✗ −2.5 | Campbell | W 52-3 62 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Philo 242 · Rush Baugh 136 · Rec Wilson 104 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #21 | #62 | −2.5✓ +2.5 | @Auburn | W 44-39 142 | 3-0 | 1-0 | Pass Philo 204 · Rush Baugh 162 · Rec Brown III 86 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #17 | #14 | −4✓ +20 | Ole MissTop 10 win | W 52-28 137 | 4-0 | 2-0 | Pass Philo 196 · Rush Baugh 142 · Rec Singleton Jr. 38 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #11 | #39 | −5.5✗ −33.5 | @Missouri | L 17-45 130 | 4-1 | 2-1 | Pass Philo 197 · Rush Montgomery 17 · Rec Wilson 66 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #16 | #40 | −10.5✗ −29.5 | South Carolina | L 19-38 146 | 4-2 | 2-2 | Pass Philo 227 · Rush Baugh 59 · Rec Stockton 127 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #27 | #5 | +13.5✓ +16.5 | @TexasTop 10 win | W 27-24 131 Firestorm | 5-2 | 3-2 | Pass Jones Jr. 155 · Rush Baugh 91 · Rec Singleton Jr. 43 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #21 | #4 | +11.5✗ −7.5 | Georgia (N) | L 8-27 125 Loud | 5-3 | 3-3 | Pass Jones Jr. 172 · Rush Baugh 38 · Rec Stockton 76 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #22 | #35 | −6 | Oklahoma | 7:45 pm ET · SEC Network60% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #23 | #37 | @Kentucky | time TBA · ESPN50% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Vanderbilt | time TBA88% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | −4.5 | @Florida State | 3:30 pm ET · ABC | |||||
Win chances are our model for Florida, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Florida: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Georgia | L 8-27 | 252 | 4 | 27:50 | -0.048 | 33.9% | 1.36 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @Texas | W 27-24 | 313 | 0 | 38:11 | +0.092 | 33.7% | 1.16 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | South Carolina | L 19-38 | 387 | 3 | 29:23 | -0.001 | 45.5% | 0.93 | |
| Oct 3 | @Missouri | L 17-45 | 325 | 0 | 28:20 | +0.019 | 35.4% | 1.24 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | Ole Miss | W 52-28 | 498 | 0 | 36:59 | +0.363 | 59.7% | 1.02 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | @Auburn | W 44-39 | 495 | 1 | 39:16 | +0.308 | 39.0% | 1.57 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | Campbell | W 52-3 | 514 | 2 | 28:25 | +0.393 | 54.0% | 1.18 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | Florida Atlantic | W 66-21 | 624 | 1 | 31:36 | +0.621 | 54.4% | 1.55 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 426 | 1.4 | +0.218 | 44.4% | 1.25 | ||||
Florida's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
I do think that there was a big decision made when they did what they did to the rosters, and we debated with a lot of higher-up people to come to the roster limitations we came to
22% now · ▼ 14 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Florida has reached elite-tier consistency — a 4-8 losing record last season contradicts its top-14% power rating, raising questions about whether Sumrall’s first year can bridge the gap between sustained excellence and on-field results.
Statusfront page
Sumrall, who previously led Tulane, inherits a 4-8 roster and 55% returning production — Florida's weight of history demands more than just a first-year fix.
Statusdeveloping
Florida SEC championship odds lengthened, from 12.5% to 5.3% (down 7.2 points) between Oct 3 and Oct 4, 2026.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Florida · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 8%; 7 wins 30%; 8 wins 42%; 9 wins 19%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 687 of 26537 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (1477 posts): 17% positive · 41% neutral · 42% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
Jon Sumrall took over as Florida's head coach, replacing Billy Napier. It is replaces 4-year head coach Billy Napier (22-23). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The skeptical coverage is growing, and the evidence points both ways.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
This event was in 1050 of 26537 board posts (4%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (1477 posts): 17% positive · 41% neutral · 42% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Florida has held the crown twice and knows the weight of having set it down — and after the worst season since the 1940s, it is betting on an outsider to pick it back up.
The same analysts who buried the Sumrall hire as 'another Group-of-Five retread from Louisiana, Napier 2.0' will be the first to call it a steal if it works. Gainesville is keeping the receipts.
Florida · Game-day weather
Typical at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 97, noon Saturdays 77
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 113 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 114 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Florida is a program that has held the crown twice and knows the weight of it.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
33 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #19, Eric Hansen (The South Bend Tribune), to #25, Scott Hamilton (WNKT). 37 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
8Jon Sumrall inherits a 4-8 losing record and an off-field feud, raising questions about whether Florida's program can reclaim its legacy under his first-season leadership.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Florida · 2026