Oklahoma at Florida
Florida (#25, 5‑3) hosts Oklahoma (4‑4). The market has Florida favored by 6. The model gives Florida a 60% shot. Oklahoma’s offense is at the 7th percentile on explosive plays; Florida’s defense is at the 84th.
How they got here
Last three games
Oklahoma · 4-4
Rated 17th in our preseason ratings, 35th now, down 18 spots.
1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
W 51-0 vs UTEP No. 196 of 668 teams
won by 51 as a 40.5-point favorite
Last three games
Florida · 5-3
Rated 22nd in our preseason ratings, 22nd now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Texas as a 13.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Florida, 77 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Florida’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 7th percentile · Florida defense, 84th
Oklahoma’s rushing EPA against Florida’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 3rd percentile · Florida defense, 76th
Oklahoma’s EPA/play against Florida’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 11th percentile · Florida defense, 59th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
The series is tied 1-1
2 meetings since 2008 · Oklahoma won the last meeting
- 2020 · neutral siteOklahoma 55-20
- 2008 · neutral siteFlorida 24-14
Each line is Florida’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Oklahoma
The chip · vs the national mediaEver since the leagues changed, the take has been that the Sooners showed up late and out of their depth; the fanbase points to a Playoff berth in year three and says the doubters got the answer, then chose not to hear it because the last half went the wrong way.
What this game touches
The 34-24 collapse. The Sooners reached the 12-team Playoff in 2025 and led Alabama 17-0 early — then surrendered 27 straight points and lost 34-24 at home, dropping Brent Venables to 0-5 in the postseason and turning a vindicating year into one half the fanbase can't unsee.
Florida
The chip · vs the national mediaThe same analysts who buried the Sumrall hire as 'another Group-of-Five retread from Louisiana, Napier 2.0' will be the first to call it a steal if it works. Gainesville is keeping the receipts.
What this game touches
The long fall from the Spurrier–Meyer summit. Three titles and three Heismans by 2008, then fifteen years of coaching misfires (Muschamp, McElwain, the Mullen collapse, Napier) — bottoming out at 4-8 in 2025 with Napier fired mid-October.
Best players
Oklahoma
- Owen Heinecke (LB) · 65 tackles
- Isaiah Sategna (WR) · 591 receiving yards
- John Mateer (QB) · 1,835 passing yards — Heisman odds: 11th (+2800)
Florida
- Myles Graham (LB) · 56 tackles
- Jadan Baugh (RB) · 801 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 47th (+20000)
- Aaron Chiles (LB) · 43 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Oklahoma: John Mateer (1,835 passing yards); Florida: Aaron Philo (1,367 passing yards) and Jadan Baugh (801 rushing yards).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward Florida since opening (−4 → −6).
The total has moved down 4.0 points since opening (48.5 → 44.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Florida fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (30th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 60%
- Line · 69%
- Florida fans · 30th
- Oklahoma fans · 6th
Florida favored by 6 · Total 44.5
Florida by 6: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Florida’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 97, noon Saturdays 77
Oklahoma at Florida · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:45 pm ET · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium: noon Saturdays score 77, 3:30 pm 80, 7:30 pm 97.
- noon: 77, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 80, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 97, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Florida is worth +5.7 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 78th percentile.
70% at home, 45% on the road against FBS opponents (31-13 home, 17-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.3 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 959 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Florida
- Wk 4Wvs Ole Miss52-28
- Wk 5Lat Missouri17-45
- Wk 6Lvs South Carolina19-38
- Wk 7Wat Texas27-24
- Wk 9Lat Georgia8-27
Oklahoma
- Wk 4Lat Georgia13-41
- Wk 6Wvs Texas27-24
- Wk 7Lvs Kentucky13-21
- Wk 8Wat Mississippi State23-15
- Wk 9Lvs South Carolina25-42
Power rating by week
Florida is rated 2.6 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Florida.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −4 → −6 · Total: 48.5 → 44.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Oklahoma 55, Florida 20Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · Dec 30, 2020