The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 12 Ole Miss 57%, No. 23 South Carolina 67%
Win out 27% · expect 2.9 of 4 more wins
Georgia's chance to win each game left, from our model: Ole Miss 57%, Missouri 72%, South Carolina 67%, Georgia Tech 98%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 73% to 89%, peaking at 95% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 1st in the SEC · 5-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Gunner Stockton 1,671 · Rushing Dwight Phillips Jr. 415 · Receiving Craig Dandridge 349 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Georgia:athletics siteSEC
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #2 | #217 | −49.5✓ +10.5 | Tennessee State | W 63-3 118 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Stockton 202 · Rush Frazier 72 · Rec Bell 54 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #3 | #47 | −40.5✓ +9.5 | Western Kentucky | W 70-20 134 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Stockton 234 · Rush Puglisi 79 · Rec White 70 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #3 | #141 | −24.5✓ +3.5 | @Arkansas | W 45-17 125 | 3-0 | 1-0 | Pass Stockton 147 · Rush Stockton 97 · Rec Dandridge 74 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #2 | #18 | −11.5✓ +16.5 | OklahomaTop 25 win | W 41-13 122 Roaring | 4-0 | 2-0 | Pass Stockton 171 · Rush Phillips Jr. 84 · Rec Taylor 110 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #1 | #46 | −25.5✗ −1.5 | Vanderbilt | W 38-14 117 | 5-0 | 3-0 | Pass Stockton 295 · Rush Walker 71 · Rec Phillips Jr. 75 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #1 | #8 | +2.5✓ +5.5 | @AlabamaTop 10 win | W 20-17 121 | 6-0 | 4-0 | Pass Stockton 249 · Rush Phillips Jr. 120 · Rec Reddell 53 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #1 | #59 | −19.5✗ −22.5 | Auburn | L 24-27 139 Firestorm | 6-1 | 4-1 | Pass Stockton 272 · Rush Phillips Jr. 68 · Rec Dandridge 88 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #4 | #21 | −11.5✓ +7.5 | Florida (N)Top 25 win | W 27-8 125 | 7-1 | 5-1 | Pass Stockton 101 · Rush Frazier 67 · Rec Dandridge 39 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #4 | #9 | −3.5 | @Ole Miss | 7:30 pm ET · ABC57% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #3 | #28 | Missouri | time TBA · ABC72% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @South Carolina | time TBA67% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Georgia Tech | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Georgia, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Georgia: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Florida | W 27-8 | 318 | 1 | 32:10 | -0.062 | 50.0% | 0.55 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Auburn | L 24-27 | 440 | 3 | 30:27 | +0.093 | 51.5% | 1.18 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 10 | @Alabama | W 20-17 | 455 | 1 | 33:28 | +0.227 | 40.3% | 1.38 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | Vanderbilt | W 38-14 | 471 | 0 | 32:48 | +0.472 | 58.0% | 1.15 | |
| Sep 26 | Oklahoma | W 41-13 | 306 | 2 | 24:33 | -0.023 | 37.7% | 1.03 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 19 | @Arkansas | W 45-17 | 464 | 0 | 35:40 | +0.382 | 53.0% | 1.17 | Blowout win |
| Sep 12 | Western Kentucky | W 70-20 | 493 | 2 | 28:54 | +0.556 | 50.0% | 1.60 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | Tennessee State | W 63-3 | 660 | 0 | 28:27 | +0.743 | 70.5% | 1.32 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 451 | 1.1 | +0.299 | 51.4% | 1.17 | ||||
Georgia's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
No. 1 Georgia
First-round bye
Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last one.
I do think that there was a big decision made when they did what they did to the rosters, and we debated with a lot of higher-up people to come to the roster limitations we came to
89% now · ▲ 6 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Sat 3:30 pm · Moves Georgia’s conference title chance by 4 points
Sat 12 pm · Moves Georgia’s conference title chance by 3 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · Georgia · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 4%; 9 wins 24%; 10 wins 45%; 11 wins 27%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Georgia chased a national title for forty years, won back-to-back, and now measures a 12-2 SEC champion as a disappointment.
The growing take that the regular-season machine can't close in January anymore — that the Smart dynasty peaked at two. The fanbase has heard it three straight winters, and it stings precisely…
Georgia · Game-day weather
Typical at Sanford Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, 3:30 pm Saturdays 87
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 111 at noon, 113 at 3:30 pm, 111 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Georgia is the program that chased the sentence for forty years, and now refuses to leave it.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #1, Ian Kress (WLNS-TV), to #7, Stephen Means (Cleveland.com).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
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Range of outcomes · Georgia · 2026