market_swing2026-09-10✓ factnew
Georgia Tech win total fell from 6.5 to 5 (-1.5 wins) between Sep 9 and Sep 10, 2026 (tier B).
the contextwin total down 1.5 — crosses below bowl eligibility territory
our readfront page
Georgia Tech
0-2Latest
ACC · Brent Key, year 5 (27-22) · Bobby Dodd Stadium · 55,000 · 52,113 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#86 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #66 (+1.7) · FPI #59
The marketno line yetvs Mercer · our model 78% Georgia Tech · a number, not a pick
LastL 24–45 vs Tennessee · Sat Sep 12 · Justice Haynes 81 rush yds, 1 TD, 36 rec yds
Nextvs Mercer · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Bobby Dodd Stadium · series 12-0, won the last 12 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Georgia Tech · 2026 schedule & results0-2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #74 | #163 | -6.5✗ | Colorado | L 13–14 130 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #78 | #33 | +12.5✗ | Tennessee | L 24–45 137 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #85 | #164 | Mercer | ||||
| 4 | Sep 27 | #87 | #103 | @Stanford | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Duke | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Virginia Tech | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Boston College | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Pittsburgh | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Louisville | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Clemson | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Wake Forest | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Georgia |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Tennessee | L 24–45 | 356 | 2 | 31:12 | +0.016 | 45.8% | 101.6% | |
| Sep 4 | Colorado | L 13–14 | 288 | 1 | 25:51 | +0.074 | 37.0% | 120.0% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 322 | 1.5 | +0.045 | 41.4% | 110.8% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Georgia Tech is the engineering school that out-thinks you on Saturday — a 1990 national champion that spent two decades in the wilderness and, under alum Brent Key and Haynes King, has clawed its way back to top-of-the-ACC relevance.
Title DroughtSince 2009 · 17 yrs
Tech fans live two miles from a program with more recruits, more money and more rings, and 'To Hell With Georgia' isn't a chant so much as a worldview — the engineers against the football factory down…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Georgia Tech fans
Georgia Tech fans
Colorado fans on Georgia Tech
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 9-4 · last season
Game feel57even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 17 in the ACC
Heart rate4-2white-knucklein one-score games (6 of 13)4th most one-score games of 17 in the ACC
Margin+7.2competitiveavg scoring margin7th best margin of 17 in the ACC
Tempo66average paceoffensive plays / game12th fastest of 17 in the ACC
Big plays1.17grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)16th most explosive of 17 in the ACC
Home crowd47,694avg attendance10th biggest crowds of 17 in the ACC
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Georgia Tech has lost five straight.
Hibernating. 4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last five.
Streak L5Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 4-6
We took six times the amount of bets on Michigan moneyline compared with Western Michigan
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Mercer · at home
Season line4.5 winsover -136
EliteMethodical, ball-controlPoor
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total1 booksO/U 4.5▼1.5 since Sep 2026
CFP championship#61 in field+40000
ACC title#10 in market+5000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Georgia Tech · the story right now
5 storylines developing
What Georgia Tech's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Georgia Tech leaped 31 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 9-4 record is the story Brent Key has to answer in the ACC this year.
what happenedGeorgia Tech enters 2026 rated No. 35 in 2025 SP+ (+9.3), up 31 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Eric Rivers is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Isiah Canion is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Jordan Allen is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedGeorgia Tech's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Outcome band · Georgia Tech · 2026
Outcome band · Georgia Tech · 2026Georgia Tech's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.
Floor 5-7Ceiling 10-3Base 8-5
0 wins13 wins
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Georgia Tech · Season outlook Confidence
One of the biggest jumps in the country. Georgia Tech has to prove the model right.
Georgia Tech enters 2026 rated No. 35 in 2025 SP+ (+9.3), up 31 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers9 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 17% volume
Developing2 new this week
5 days agoWin total: 6.5 → 5 (▼1.5)
last weekGeorgia Tech releases depth chart — Reported
2 weeks agoGeorgia Tech releases initial depth chart — Reported
4 weeks agoGeorgia Tech updates Week One depth chart — Reported
Jul 24Win total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 13d after "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for MSU's James BlackStrain"
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Georgia Tech leaped 31 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 9-4 record is the story Brent Key has to answer in the ACC this year.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a major jump in the model is the expectations tax: a season that would have read as a breakthrough last year now reads as meeting the floor. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Georgia Tech enters 2026 rated No. 35 in 2025 SP+ (+9.3), up 31 spots from 2024 — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Georgia Tech cornerback Jaylen Mbakwe (3) is taken off the field” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Georgia Tech cornerback Jaylen Mbakwe (3) is taken off the field on a stretcher during a college football game between Tennessee”
The Lufkin Daily News · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers9 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Vols LB Jeremiah Telander reacts to Tennessee's win at Georgia Tech Stream of NCAA Football”
CBS Sports · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Tennessee football celebrates its win at Georgia Tech Stream of General Videos”
CBS Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“WATCH: Tennessee celebrates win at Georgia Tech”
247Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards17% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›
This event was in 582 of 3336 board posts (17%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Georgia Tech exists to prove that hope is a vice, not a virtue. We get so excited and choke it away every time. We are and forever will be a 7-win program with an occasional 9-win"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Yes, I want to win every game. Yes, I have donated well into the six figures to GT football. BUT, we need to accept that GT football is a second tier program which occasionally ent"
StingTalk ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc
Rival pulse
Georgia
Bearish-29
Clean Old-Fashioned Hate
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Georgia Tech is the ACC engineering-school flagship — 1990 national championship under Bobby Ross, four split-T / triple-option / Paul Johnson eras, and Brent Key's 2024 7-6 rebuild that reset competitive cycles.
Offense: EliteTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Poor
Open questions
The story
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 14Fell to No. 23 in the AP Top 25The committee dropped them seven spots, to No. 23.Week 13 · Lost 28-42 at home to Pittsburgh
- 2025 · Wk 11Fell to No. 16 in the AP Top 25Week 10 · Lost 36-48 at NC State
- 2025 · Wk 9Climbed to No. 7 in the AP Top 25Week 8 · Won 27-18 at Duke
- 2025 · Wk 7Climbed to No. 13 in the AP Top 25
- 2025 · Wk 4Entered the AP Top 25Week 3 · Won 24-21 at home over Clemson
Roster
Roster Reload - Georgia Tech
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production13%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#34 nationally247 composite 751.6
Portal Additions19Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses20Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2)
Recruiting Reload#41Development class
DLin 3 - Tawfiq Thomasout 2 - Landen MarshallUpgrade
current room: 272 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Nose Anchorcontrols the point of attack and doesn't move
TEin 3 - Gavin Harrisout 1 - Luke HarpringNeed Filled
current room: 246 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Move TE2025 profilecreates mismatches lined up all over the formation
Full roster (110 players)
CBElgin Sessions, Jaedyn Terry, Jaylen Mbakwe, Jon Mitchell, Jonas Duclona, Kelvin Hill, L.J. Crumity, Trae Stevenson Jr.
DEA.J. Hoffler, Amontrae Bradford, Andre Fuller Jr., Brayden Manley, Chuma Okoye, Drew Cohen, Jordan Boyd, Jordan Woods, Lex Willis, Noah Carter, Taje McCoy
DTAmier Clarke, Christian Garrett, Christian Speakman, Derry Norris Jr., Landen Marshall, Shymeik Jones, Tawfiq Thomas, Tim Griffin, Vincent Carroll-Jackson
LBBraylon Outlaw, C.J. Gamble, Cayman Spaulding, E.J. Lightsey, Kyle Efford, Lawson Pritchett, Melvin Jordan IV, Myles Forristall
OLAndrew Rosinski, Blake Belin, Courtlin Heard, Courtney Heard, Eli Rickell, Ethan Mackenny, Favour Ebuka Edwin, Jacob Benjamin, Jameson Riggs, Jimmy Bryson, Jordan Floyd, Joseph Ionata, Josh Petty, Kevin Peay Jr., Krew Moledor, Malachi Carney, Markell Samuel, Will Reed, Xavier Canales
RBChad Alexander, J.P. Powell, Jayden Barr, Justice Haynes, Malachi Hosley, Shane Marshall, Trelain Maddox
SAlex Hunt, Chris Hewitt Jr., Fenix Felton, Isaac Obrokta, Kealan Jones, Kymani Morales, Savion Riley, Tae Harris, Will Kiker
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Georgia Tech
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for MSU's James BlackStrain
BlackStrain's waiver denial stings — Key's LB room already absorbed two draft exits and was counting on a veteran plug, not another developmental rep.
- News
Win total: 6.5 → 5 (▼1.5)
The 6.5 to 5 move confirmed what was already public — the market repriced after the news landed.
- News
Georgia Tech releases depth chart
SP+ jumped 31 spots but the depth chart just confirmed what the LB pressure talk was about — two draft exits and a #41 class aren't covering that room yet, and Tennessee's film room already knows it.
- News
Georgia Tech releases initial depth chart
Depth chart drops with LB still the loudest question mark — two draft exits and a #41 class means Key's linebackers are playing with a thinner margin than the SP+31 jump suggests.
- News
Georgia Tech updates Week One depth chart
Two NFL exits and a linebacker room under pressure — Key's Week One depth chart tells you whether the development class filled the gaps or just papered over them.
- News
Colorado announces Week 1 starters
Colorado blocked the field goal, rallied late, and handed Key's resurgent Yellow Jackets a gut-punch opener — a 31-spot SP+ climb means nothing if the LB depth and two draft exits show up in Week 1 crunch time.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-1.2 net portal points
(raw ledger: -0.4 — unweighted, no position adjustment)EDGE+11.8
need filled
LB-10.7
starter risk
S-6.7
starter risk
TE+6.7
need filled
WR-4.1
IOL-3.8
DL+3.7
P+3.5
low confidence
RB+1.1
LS-1.0
low confidence
CB-0.7
QB-0.3
OT+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Trae Stevenson Jr.
#225 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Jaedyn Terry
#427 national
★★★★☆
Cole Bergeron
#438 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
24
GA · 14FL · 5AL · 3LA · 1MD · 1
GA leads the 2026 class with 14 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
93 signees across 12 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
That is 5.3% of every high-school FBS signee GA produced over those cycles — second only to Georgia, 1 signee back. The full map →
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Georgia Tech player grew up 92 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
2nd-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%26–403 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi51%56 of 109 players
Farthest2,169 miWill Reed · Redmond, WA
Closest2 miAlex Bacchetta · Atlanta, GA
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Bobby Dodd Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 109 of 110 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Georgia Tech 25-21
[Game Thread] Pop-Tarts Bowl: BYU vs. Georgia Tech (3:30 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Belief history
↓
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2023
7th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market≈
7th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
4.5
Vegas O/U wins
(13th among FBS)
(13th among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 1 book
Penalties
Penalty battle
The flags have favored them: 20 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 14 committed, 107 yards to the good.
95 penalty yards committed vs. 202 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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