Louisville at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech (2‑6) hosts Louisville (5‑3). The market has Louisville favored by 14.5. Louisville’s offense is at the 97th percentile on efficiency; Georgia Tech’s defense is at the 13th.
How they got here
Last three games
Louisville · 5-3
Rated 61st in our preseason ratings, 28th now, up 33 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
Georgia Tech · 2-6
Rated 74th in our preseason ratings, 125th now, down 51 spots.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Louisville’s rushing EPA against Georgia Tech, 85 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Louisville’s EPA/play against Georgia Tech’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · Georgia Tech defense, 13th
Louisville’s rushing EPA against Georgia Tech’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · Georgia Tech defense, 12th
Georgia Tech’s explosive plays against Louisville’s defense
Georgia Tech offense, 73rd percentile · Louisville defense, 21st
What’s at stake
Louisville
- Louisville needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 89% with a loss.
- Louisville is coming off a 28-point win.
Georgia Tech
- Georgia Tech is still shaking off a 23-point loss.
The series
The series is tied 2-2
4 meetings since 2018 · Louisville has won the last 2
- 2024Louisville 31-19
- 2023 · neutral siteLouisville 39-34
- 2020Georgia Tech 46-27
- 2018Georgia Tech 66-31
Each line is Georgia Tech’s chance to win through that meeting. Georgia Tech is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Louisville
The chip · vs the national mediaBrohm himself said it out loud — an unbeaten stretch and three straight strong years, and Louisville still couldn't crack the rankings. Fans hear the same message every fall: prove it against somebody big, because we're not penciling you in.
What this game touches
So close, never through. Jeff Brohm came home and went 9-4 in 2023, 9-4 in 2024 and 9-4 again in 2025 — three straight strong seasons, the second time in school history — yet Louisville keeps finishing 4-4 in the ACC, missing the title game and the national rankings while a Boca Raton Bowl win over Toledo papered over a year that flirted with more.
Georgia Tech
The chip · vs big brotherTech fans live two miles from a program with more recruits, more money and more rings, and 'To Hell With Georgia' isn't a chant so much as a worldview — the engineers against the football factory down Highway 78.
What this game touches
The fourth-and-goal fumble. Georgia Tech's modern history with Georgia is a catalog of near-misses — most famously the 2014 collapse and a string of games lost in the final minutes — that hardened the fear of being permanently the smaller school across town, even after the program's recent climb.
Best players
Louisville
- T.J. Capers (LB) · 57 tackles
- Stanquan Clark (LB) · 56 tackles
- Kaleb Beasley (DB) · 53 tackles
Georgia Tech
- Tae Harris (S) · 50 tackles
- Jordan Allen (WR) · 543 receiving yards
- Taje Mccoy (DE) · 45 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Louisville: Lincoln Kienholz (2,094 passing yards); Georgia Tech: Alberto Mendoza (1,795 passing yards).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (59.5 → 61.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Louisville fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (53rd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 42%
- Line · 12%
- Georgia Tech fans · 38th
- Louisville fans · 53rd
Louisville favored by 14.5 · Total 61.5
Louisville by 14.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Louisville’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 275 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Bobby Dodd Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 87
Louisville at Georgia Tech · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:30 pm ET · Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Bobby Dodd Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Georgia Tech has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.1 points (±4.1), home against road — 2nd percentile of FBS.
44% at home, 39% on the road against FBS opponents (20-25 home, 17-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.7 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±6.1 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 316 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Georgia Tech
- Wk 4Lat Stanford27-34
- Wk 6Wvs Duke28-25
- Wk 7Lat Virginia Tech24-34
- Wk 8Lvs Boston College27-49
- Wk 9Lat Pittsburgh11-34
Louisville
- Wk 4Lvs Wake Forest27-30
- Wk 5Lat NC State28-31
- Wk 6Wvs Florida State44-20
- Wk 7Wat Syracuse34-26
- Wk 9Wvs Stanford52-24
Power rating by week
Louisville is rated 11.1 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Louisville.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +13.5 → +14.5 · Total: 59.5 → 61.5
The books’ cut: 4.0%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Georgia Tech16th1-4
- Louisville4th4-2