The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 24 SMU 10%, Virginia Tech 15%, California 47%
Win out 1% · expect 0.7 of 3 more wins
Stanford's chance to win each game left, from our model: Virginia Tech 15%, California 47%, SMU 10%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 12th in the ACC · 2-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Davis Warren 2,203 · Rushing Micah Ford 751 · Receiving Caden High 419 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Stanford:athletics siteACC
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #97 | #59 | −4.5✓ +5.5 | Hawai'i | W 37-27 145 Loud | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Warren 310 · Rush Ford 99 · Rec Hall 81 |
| 1 | Sep 4 | #97 | #10 | +24.5✗ −14.5 | Miami | L 6-45 132 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Warren 214 · Rush Irvin 41 · Rec High 92 |
| 2 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | #101 | #67 | +9.5✗ −18.5 | @Duke | L 7-35 129 Loud | 1-2 | 0-2 | Pass Warren 151 · Rush Ford 76 · Rec High 43 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #106 | #98 | +3✓ +10 | Georgia Tech | W 34-27 144 | 2-2 | 1-2 | Pass Warren 396 · Rush Ford 55 · Rec Brown 98 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #115 | #71 | +14.5✗ −39.5 | @Wake Forest | L 3-57 134 | 2-3 | 1-3 | Pass Warren 136 · Rush Ford 45 · Rec Brown 42 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #133 | #4 | +40.5✗ −10.5 | @Notre Dame | L 7-58 118 | 2-4 | 1-3 | Pass Warren 144 · Rush Ford 48 · Rec High 64 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #140 | #203 | −33.5✗ −6.5 | Elon | W 34-7 74 | 3-4 | 1-3 | Pass Warren 279 · Rush Ford 179 · Rec Hall 70 |
| 8 | Oct 23 | #133 | #63 | +7.5✓ +10.5 | NC State | W 31-28 134 | 4-4 | 2-3 | Pass Warren 303 · Rush Ford 150 · Rec High 103 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #130 | #31 | +22.5✗ −5.5 | @Louisville | L 24-52 131 | 4-5 | 2-4 | Pass Warren 270 · Rush Ford 72 · Rec Brown 109 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #144 | #55 | @Virginia Tech | time TBA15% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @California | time TBA47% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | SMU | time TBA10% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Stanford, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Stanford: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Louisville | L 24-52 | 351 | 2 | 30:42 | -0.170 | 26.4% | 1.89 | Most explosive |
| Oct 23 | NC State | W 31-28 | 477 | 0 | 30:01 | +0.341 | 45.1% | 1.47 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | Elon | W 34-7 | 515 | 1 | 32:49 | +0.403 | 50.0% | 1.21 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | @Notre Dame | L 7-58 | 202 | 3 | 22:50 | -0.259 | 25.0% | 1.20 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Wake Forest | L 3-57 | 197 | 1 | 31:14 | -0.152 | 32.9% | 0.97 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 26 | Georgia Tech | W 34-27 | 482 | 0 | 30:07 | +0.280 | 42.5% | 1.56 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @Duke | L 7-35 | 237 | 1 | 22:46 | -0.133 | 35.0% | 1.06 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 4 | Miami | L 6-45 | 299 | 0 | 23:26 | +0.020 | 33.3% | 1.06 | Blowout loss |
| Aug 29 | Hawai'i | W 37-27 | 483 | 0 | 30:54 | +0.326 | 45.2% | 1.21 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 360 | 0.9 | +0.073 | 37.3% | 1.29 | ||||
Stanford's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
It starts with me. The guys didn’t play well enough, which means I didn’t have them ready
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Tavita Pritchard inherits a 4-8 roster and a program that hasn't won a conference title since 2013 — the admissions office identity clashes with a rebuild demanding results, not just tradition.
Statusfront page
Tavita Pritchard inherits a 4-8 losing record at Stanford, where power football has struggled to take root in an admissions office.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Stanford · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 40%; 5 wins 48%; 6 wins 11%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 423 of 2190 board posts (19%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (56 posts): 14% positive · 77% neutral · 9% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
Tavita Pritchard took over as Stanford's head coach, replacing Frank Reich. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is divided, and believers and skeptics both cite evidence.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
This event was in 15 of 2190 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (56 posts): 14% positive · 77% neutral · 9% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Stanford ran power football out of an admissions office and reached two Rose Bowls doing it — now it's the program watching the NIL era treat its highest standards as a recruiting handicap, with Andrew Luck in a suit trying to reverse-engineer the climb back.
Fans hear the same verdict on a loop — that the academic standard is now an anchor, that paying players broke the only model Stanford had, that the smart school can't survive a sport that stopped…
Stanford · Game-day weather
Typical at Stanford Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 95 to 98
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 107 at noon, 102 at 3:30 pm, 102 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Stanford is the program that ran power football out of an admissions office.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2025
89th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
5Tavita Pritchard inherits a 4-8 roster and a program that hasn't won a conference title since 2013 — the admissions office identity clashes with a rebuild demanding results, not just tradition.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Stanford · 2026