The rest of the season
One real test left: No. 1 Miami 67%
Win out 55% · expect 3.5 of 4 more wins
Notre Dame's chance to win each game left, from our model: Miami 67%, Boston College 99%, SMU 87%, Syracuse 96%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 39% to 68%, peaking at 83% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
LeadersPassing C.J. Carr 1,849 · Rushing Nolan James Jr. 519 · Receiving Jordan Faison 497 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Notre Dame:athletics siteFBS IndependentsX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #1 | #86 | −21✓ +7 | Wisconsin (N) | W 41-13 122 Roaring | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Carr 239 · Rush Williams 90 · Rec Faison 81 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #1 | #178 | −44.5✓ +7.5 | Rice | W 52-0 111 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Carr 253 · Rush Walton 48 · Rec Bettis Jr. 61 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #2 | #154 | −28.5✗ −11.5 | Michigan State | W 27-10 112 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Carr 234 · Rush James Jr. 121 · Rec Gilbert 170 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #3 | #123 | −27.5✓ +11.5 | @Purdue | W 49-10 126 | 4-0 | 0-0 | Pass Carr 237 · Rush Williams 80 · Rec Gilbert 83 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #3 | #104 | −21✗ −10 | @North Carolina | W 37-26 125 | 5-0 | 0-0 | Pass Carr 234 · Rush Walton 120 · Rec Faison 132 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #4 | #133 | −40.5✓ +10.5 | Stanford | W 58-7 118 | 6-0 | 0-0 | Pass Carr 181 · Rush Walton 181 · Rec Williams 70 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #3 | #10 | −10.5✗ −14.5 | @BYU | L 24-28 146 Roaring | 6-1 | 0-0 | Pass Carr 261 · Rush James Jr. 77 · Rec Greathouse 125 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #2 | #76 | −30.5✗ −8.5 | Navy (N) | W 35-13 116 | 7-1 | 0-0 | Pass Carr 210 · Rush James Jr. 107 · Rec Bettis Jr. 78 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #1 | #5 | −5.5 | Miami | 7:30 pm ET · NBC67% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #1 | #111 | Boston College | 3:30 pm ET · NBC99% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | −17.5 | SMU | 7:30 pm ET · NBC87% to win | |||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Syracuse | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Notre Dame, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Notre Dame: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Navy | W 35-13 | 426 | 0 | 27:20 | +0.425 | 55.0% | 1.26 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 17 | @BYU | L 24-28 | 376 | 1 | 30:58 | +0.243 | 39.2% | 1.33 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | Stanford | W 58-7 | 598 | 0 | 37:10 | +0.566 | 56.4% | 1.39 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @North Carolina | W 37-26 | 475 | 0 | 37:04 | +0.271 | 55.1% | 1.01 | |
| Sep 26 | @Purdue | W 49-10 | 444 | 1 | 24:44 | +0.387 | 56.7% | 1.10 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | Michigan State | W 27-10 | 395 | 0 | 37:02 | +0.179 | 48.5% | 1.01 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Rice | W 52-0 | 478 | 0 | 32:18 | +0.425 | 55.2% | 1.23 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 6 | Wisconsin | W 41-13 | 350 | 0 | 31:36 | +0.349 | 46.0% | 1.11 | Blowout win |
| Season average (8 games) | 443 | 0.2 | +0.356 | 51.5% | 1.18 | ||||
Notre Dame's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
No. 2 Notre Dame
First-round bye
Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
9-1 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Yeah, I think the history of it, the why, you know, it goes way back with the war and the agreement between presidents
68% now · ▼ 2 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · Notre Dame · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
9 wins 6%; 10 wins 39%; 11 wins 55%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among FBS Independents teams the same season
Notre Dame is the national independent that won ten in a row to end 2025, watched the committee hand the last Playoff seat to the team that beat it in Week 1, and skipped a bowl rather than pretend that was good enough.
The fanbase's read is simple and bitter: ten straight wins were worth less than a Week 1 result the committee chose to weight, and a program with no conference title to wave gets judged on a…
Notre Dame · Game-day weather
Typical at Notre Dame Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 88
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Notre Dame is a program that knows what it is, and still asks the question.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #2, Henry Greenstein (Lawrence Journal-World), to #10, Ian Kress (WLNS-TV).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
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No financial relationship with any outlet listed. If we have a reporter wrong or missing, please let us know.
Range of outcomes · Notre Dame · 2026