recruitingthis cycle✓ factnew
Notre Dame signed a top-5 recruiting class.
the contextthe program's best recruiting class in at least five years
our readfront page
Notre Dame
2-0AP #3Latest
FBS Independents · Marcus Freeman, year 6 (45-12) · Notre Dame Stadium · 80,795 · 77,622 avg in 2026
The nationAP #3 · Coaches #3no change
The model#2 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #3 (+26.8) · FPI #3
The marketNotre Dame by 30vs Michigan State · our model 98% Notre Dame · a number, not a pick
LastW 52–0 vs Rice · Sat Sep 12 · CJ Carr 253 pass yds, 4 TD
Nextvs Michigan State · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 pm ET · Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame by 30 · series 44-28-1 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Notre Dame · 2026 schedule & results2-0
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #1 | #86 | -21✓ | Wisconsin (N) | W 41–13 122 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #1 | #180 | -44.5✓ | Rice | W 52–0 111 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #2 | #157 | -30 | Michigan State | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #2 | #120 | @Purdue | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @North Carolina | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Stanford | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @BYU | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Navy (N) | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 8 | Miami | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Boston College | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 22 | SMU | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Syracuse |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Rice | W 52–0 | 478 | 0 | 32:18 | +0.428 | 55.2% | 123.3% | |
| Sep 6 | Wisconsin | W 41–13 | 350 | 0 | 31:36 | +0.349 | 46.0% | 111.1% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 414 | 0.0 | +0.388 | 50.6% | 117.2% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Notre Dame is the national independent that won ten in a row to end 2025, watched the committee hand the last Playoff seat to the team that beat it in Week 1, and skipped a bowl rather than pretend that was good enough.
AP Poll#3 AP
The fanbase's read is simple and bitter: ten straight wins were worth less than a Week 1 result the committee chose to weight, and a program with no conference title to wave gets judged on a standard…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Notre Dame fans
r/CFB
▲ 1224 · 2d ago
Rice fans on Notre Dame
Notre Dame fans
r/CFB
▲ 2090 · 1w ago
Wisconsin fans on Notre Dame
r/WisconsinBadgers
▲ 393 · 1w ago
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 10-2 · last season
Game feel60even gamescombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 2 in the FBS Independents
Heart rate0-2some dramain one-score games (2 of 12)2nd most one-score games of 2 in the FBS Independents
Margin+24.4competitiveavg scoring margin1st best margin of 2 in the FBS Independents
Tempo62average paceoffensive plays / game2nd fastest of 2 in the FBS Independents
Big plays1.52some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)1st most explosive of 2 in the FBS Independents
Home crowd77,622avg attendance1st biggest crowds of 2 in the FBS Independents
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among FBS Independents teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Notre Dame has won five straight.
Hot. 10-0 over the last 10, and won the last ten.
Streak W10Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 10-0
We took six times the amount of bets on Michigan moneyline compared with Western Michigan
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Michigan State · at home
Season line11.5 winsover +165
EliteExplosive, big-playElite
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total1 booksO/U 11.5
CFP championship#2 in field+575
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Notre Dame · the story right now
8 storylines developing
What Notre Dame's recruiting class is really about
the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?
recruiting2025 cycle~read★new
Will Black (OT, #26 nationally) arrives as Marcus Freeman's fourth top-12 class in four years, but with just 6% QB production returning and USC outrecruiting them for the first time.
what happenedNotre Dame signed a top-12 recruiting class. ✓ fact
the contextthe No. 1 recruiting class in the FBS Independents
our readfront page
garbage time2025 cycle✓ factnew
Jadarian Price does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
our readdeveloping
garbage time2025 cycle✓ factnew
Jeremiyah Love does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
our readdeveloping
money down2025 cycle✓ factnew
Malachi Fields is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
closer2025 cycle~attributednew
Aneyas Williams: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Malachi Fields is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Notre Dame enters 2026 — the gap between its No. 5 SP+ ranking and 10-2 record is the story Marcus Freeman has to answer in the ACC this year.
what happenedNotre Dame enters 2026 rated No. 5 in 2025 SP+ (+24.4). ✓ fact
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedNotre Dame's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Died downNotre Dame's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Notre Dame · 2026
Outcome band · Notre Dame · 2026Notre Dame's most likely season is 10-3 — the CFP first round. The floor is 8-5; the ceiling is 16-0.
Floor 8-5Ceiling 16-0Base 10-3
0 wins16 wins
Floor8-5A bowl game.
Base10-3The CFP first round.
Ceiling16-0A national title.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Notre Dame · Recruiting Confidence
Notre Dame signed the top-5 class. Talent in the door isn't the same as talent on the field.
Notre Dame signed a top-5 recruiting class. It is the program's best recruiting class in at least five years. Top 5 means the talent case is made. Whether the staff develops it is the open question. National coverage is split on what the ranking actually signals for this program.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers19 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 3% volume
Developing4 new this week
4 days agoFSU loses to FCS opponent — Reported
4 days agoWeekend Preview: Notre Dame Commits In Action Under the Friday Night Lights (Sept. 10-12) — 247sports.com
4 days agoThe risks and rewards of Notre Dame’s QB reclassification trend — On3
5 days agoNotre Dame recruiting weekend preview: Four-star linemen, elite 2029 prospects headline visitor list — On3
2 weeks agoNotre Dame depth chart released — Reported
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Champ Monds Recruit
“Notre Dame football commits Julius Jones, Champ Monds excelling early” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-01
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
A top class raises the ceiling, not the floor — the split reaction is really a bet on whether this staff develops what it signed.
Next · what to watch
The obvious read is 'more talent.' The non-obvious one: a big class intensifies the depth-chart squeeze, which is itself a portal pressure the signing-day headline never mentions. Watch attrition and portal balance once camp opens — early enrollees and portal departures will tell you which of these names actually stick.
Source of record: Notre Dame signed a top-5 recruiting class — the program's best recruiting class in at least five years.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Notre Dame Recruiting Commitments Draw Attention After Pregame H” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Notre Dame Recruiting Commitments Draw Attention After Pregame Handshake Drama”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-01 · read ↗
📣Believers19 bullish/recruiting items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.
“The risks and rewards of Notre Dame’s QB reclassification trend”
On3 · 2026-09-11 · read ↗
“Notre Dame recruiting weekend preview: Four-star linemen, elite 2029 prospects headline visitor list”
On3 · 2026-09-10 · read ↗
“Notre Dame-Wisconsin is up there with classics in terms of NBC ratings”
Fighting Irish Wire · 2026-09-10 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Notre Dame commits, top Wisconsin recruits to see Irish face Bad” — the real counter.›
The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.
“Notre Dame commits, top Wisconsin recruits to see Irish face Badgers”
on3.com · 2026-09-05 · read ↗
💬The boards3% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.›
This event was in 278 of 9304 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · Notre Dame · Recruiting Confidence
Notre Dame signed the top-12 class. Talent in the door isn't the same as talent on the field.
Notre Dame signed a top-12 recruiting class. It is the No. 1 recruiting class in the FBS Independents. A class ranked in the teens won the trail competition. The depth-chart work starts now. National coverage is split on what the ranking actually signals for this program.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers19 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 3% volume
Developing4 new this week
4 days agoFSU loses to FCS opponent — Reported
4 days agoWeekend Preview: Notre Dame Commits In Action Under the Friday Night Lights (Sept. 10-12) — 247sports.com
4 days agoThe risks and rewards of Notre Dame’s QB reclassification trend — On3
5 days agoNotre Dame recruiting weekend preview: Four-star linemen, elite 2029 prospects headline visitor list — On3
2 weeks agoNotre Dame depth chart released — Reported
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Champ Monds Recruit
“Notre Dame football commits Julius Jones, Champ Monds excelling early” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-01
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Will Black (OT, #26 nationally) arrives as Marcus Freeman's fourth top-12 class in four years, but with just 6% QB production returning and USC outrecruiting them for the first time.
Next · what to watch
The obvious read is 'more talent.' The non-obvious one: a big class intensifies the depth-chart squeeze, which is itself a portal pressure the signing-day headline never mentions. Watch attrition and portal balance once camp opens — early enrollees and portal departures will tell you which of these names actually stick.
Source of record: Notre Dame signed a top-12 recruiting class — the No. 1 recruiting class in the FBS Independents.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Notre Dame Recruiting Commitments Draw Attention After Pregame H” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Notre Dame Recruiting Commitments Draw Attention After Pregame Handshake Drama”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-01 · read ↗
📣Believers19 bullish/recruiting items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.
“The risks and rewards of Notre Dame’s QB reclassification trend”
On3 · 2026-09-11 · read ↗
“Notre Dame recruiting weekend preview: Four-star linemen, elite 2029 prospects headline visitor list”
On3 · 2026-09-10 · read ↗
“Notre Dame-Wisconsin is up there with classics in terms of NBC ratings”
Fighting Irish Wire · 2026-09-10 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Notre Dame commits, top Wisconsin recruits to see Irish face Bad” — the real counter.›
The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.
“Notre Dame commits, top Wisconsin recruits to see Irish face Badgers”
on3.com · 2026-09-05 · read ↗
💬The boards3% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.›
This event was in 278 of 9304 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc
Rival pulse
Stanford
Mixed-2
Legends Trophy
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Notre Dame is a program that knows what it is, and still asks the question.
Offense: EliteTempo: Explosive, big-playDefense: Elite
Open questions
Active arcs
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 7Climbed to No. 16 in the AP Top 25Week 6 · Won 28-7 at home over Boise State
- 2025 · Wk 4Fell to No. 24 in the AP Top 25Week 3 · Lost 40-41 at home to Texas A&M
Roster
Roster Reload - Notre Dame
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production51%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#6 nationally247 composite 953.0
Portal Additions7Primary repair: DL
Portal Losses16Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss6Heavy NFL Draft loss (6) — 2 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#5Top-10 recruiting class
CBin 2 - Jayden Sandersout 3 - Cree ThomasDowngrade
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickel2025 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
DLin 3 - Francis Brewuout 1 - Armel MukamNeed Filled
current room: 278 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Base2025 profilewins his gap play after play
Next man up
Full roster (113 players)
CBAyden Pouncey, Chaz Smith, Christian Gray, Dallas Golden, Dylahn McKinney, Jayden Sanders, Khary Adams, Leonard Moore, Mark Zackery IV, Nick Reddish
DLArmel Mukam, Boubacar Traore, Bryce Young, Christopher Burgess Jr., Cole Mullins, Davion Dixon, Dominik Hulak, Ebenezer Ewetade, Elijah Golden, Elijah Hughes, Francis Brewu, Gordy Sulfsted, Jason Onye, Joe Reiff, Keon Keeley, Loghan Thomas, Rodney Dunham, Sean Sevillano Jr., Tiki Hola, Tionne Gray
LBDrayk Bowen, Ja'Kobe Clapper, Jaiden Ausberry, Jaylen Sneed, Kahanu Kia, Koo Kia, Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, Madden Faraimo, Teddy Rezac, Thomas Davis Jr., Tommy Powlus
OLAnthonie Knapp, Ashton Craig, Ben Nichols, Cam Herron, Charles Jagusah, Charlie Thom, Chris Terek, Devan Houstan, Grayson McKeogh, Gregory Patrick, Guerby Lambert, Joe Otting, Matty Augustine, Max Anderson, Owen Strebig, Peter Jones, Robbie Wollan, Styles Prescod, Sullivan Absher, Sullivan Garvin, Tyler Merrill, Will Black
RBAneyas Williams, Javian Osborne, Jonaz Walton, Kedren Young, Kurt Smith, Matt Williams, Nolan James Jr.
SAdon Shuler, Brandon Logan, Chase Young, Ethan Long, Joey O'Brien, Luke Talich, Patrick Downes, Tae Johnson
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Notre Dame
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
FSU loses to FCS opponent
FSU dropping to an FCS opponent while Freeman's rebuilding around six drafted starters and a top-5 class — the ACC's playoff lane just got noticeably wider for Notre Dame.
- News
Notre Dame depth chart released
Depth chart out and the EDGE spots are the ones worth staring at — six starters drafted means Freeman's top-5 class gets thrown into the fire before October tests whether youth holds.
- Portal
Tuihalamaka transfers to LSU
Six starters drafted and now a DE walks to Baton Rouge — Freeman's depth rebuild just took a hit before it ever got started.
- Recruiting
4-star DL Brayden Parks commits to Notre Dame
Six starters gone to the draft and the D-line rebuild isn't waiting — Parks is Freeman's 2027 answer to a depth hole that opens every time a scout shows up in South Bend.
- Recruiting
Roman Igwebuike commits to Notre Dame
Safety room was already under pressure with 6 players gone to the draft — Igwebuike doesn't just fill a depth slot, he addresses the one position where Freeman couldn't afford to wait on development.
- Recruiting
QB Trey Tagliaferri decommits from Notre Dame
Freeman locked in long-term and the class sits at #12 nationally — losing a QB commit mid-build stings less about the player and more about whether the pocket depth behind Riley Leonard's eventual successor is actually settled.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-19.5 net portal points
(raw ledger: -30.1 — unweighted, no position adjustment)EDGE-11.7
starter risk
S-11.5
starter risk
DL+9.1
need filled
LB-7.1
starter risk
QB-4.2
low confidence
RB-3.5
low confidence
CB-2.5
WR+1.3
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★★
Rodney Dunham
#7 national
★★★★★
Ian Premer
#21 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical tight end — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Complete TE archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★★
Khary Adams
#24 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
29
FL · 4NC · 4TX · 4GA · 3MI · 3PA · 3OH · 2AZ · 1+5 more
FL leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
101 signees across 23 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Notre Dame player grew up 538 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
23rd-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%201–795 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi14%15 of 106 players
Farthest4,314 miKahanu Kia · Kaneohe, HI
Closest1 miAustin Ratigan · South Bend, IN
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Notre Dame Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 106 of 113 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Recruiting & portal buzz
2027 5* IOL Albert Simien commits to Notre Dame
2027 4* WR Julius Jones commits to Notre Dame
2028 QB Trey Tagliaferri decommits from Notre Dame
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
How it turned out
Belief history
↑
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2025
69th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
69th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
11.5
Vegas O/U wins
(100th among FBS)
(100th among FBS)
Market 31pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Pollster gap
Voter spread
68 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #1, Rece Davis (ESPN), to #7, Stephen Means (Cleveland.com).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
83% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~46% league baseline.
5 of 6 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
6 penalties committed, 10 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
61 penalty yards committed vs. 80 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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