Postseason implications · Week 10 · Model odds as of Wed, Nov 4

What's on the line this week

What every game does to each team's playoff, conference-title and bowl chances, with the odds if they win and if they lose.

All 60 games by kickoff Scores and schedule

The biggest game this week

If Ole Miss beats Georgia, its playoff chances go from 51% to 68%. If it loses, they drop to 39%.

No. 2 GeorgiaatNo. 12 Ole Miss

Sat, Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET · ABC · Georgia −3.5

The other races, each way it can go

If Georgia wins (57% likely)

National titleGeorgia18% → ▲20%Ole Miss5% → ▼4%
Conference titleGeorgia48% → ▲59%Ole Miss10% → ▼1%

If Ole Miss wins (43% likely)

National titleOle Miss5% → ▲6%Georgia18% → ▼17%
Conference titleOle Miss10% → ▲19%Georgia48% → ▼35%

Game preview ›

Next biggest games

Last week: Florida lost and went from 36% to 22% (we had said 28%). See last week's calls

Pick a row to see what a win or a loss does. Only those two teams move.

Who is in the playoff race

Each team's chance to make the 12-team field, highest first. The dot is today; the bars run to the odds with a loss and with a win.

▼ odds with a loss · ● today · ▲ odds with a winRanks are the AP poll. The odds count what is left to play, so a No. 5 team can sit at 35%.

The committee has Boise State at No. 25. Ranked by playoff chance, our model has Boise State at No. 7.

ESPN’s FPI has Wake Forest at 59% to make the playoff, higher than our 14%. ESPN has Texas at 61% to make the playoff, lower than our 80%.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
GeorgiaCommittee No. 2 · 7-1at Ole MissSat 7:30 PM ET · ABC89▼82 ▲95Try itPreview ›
MiamiCommittee No. 1 · 8-0at Notre DameSat 7:30 PM ET · NBC85▼82 ▲91Try itPreview ›
Ohio StateCommittee No. 12 · 6-2vs OregonSat 3:30 PM ET · CBS80▼67 ▲88Try itPreview ›
TexasCommittee No. 7 · 6-2at MissouriSat 12:00 PM ET · ESPN80▼69 ▲88Try itPreview ›
Notre DameCommittee No. 11 · 7-1vs MiamiSat 7:30 PM ET · NBC68▼51 ▲77Try itPreview ›
AlabamaCommittee No. 5 · 6-2at LSUSat 3:30 PM ET · ABC64▼51 ▲79Try itPreview ›
Boise StateCommittee No. 25 · 7-1at Colorado StateSat 6:00 PM ET · USA52▼37 ▲59Try itPreview ›
Ole MissCommittee No. 10 · 6-2vs GeorgiaSat 7:30 PM ET · ABC51▼39 ▲68Try itPreview ›
UtahCommittee No. 3 · 8-0vs BYUSat 12:00 PM ET · ABC49▼34 ▲57Try itPreview ›
LSUCommittee No. 14 · 6-2vs AlabamaSat 3:30 PM ET · ABC44▼30 ▲56Try itPreview ›
Texas TechCommittee No. 15 · 7-1vs West VirginiaSat 9:30 PM ET · ESPN43▼23 ▲46Try itPreview ›
IndianaCommittee No. 4 · 8-142Off this week
Above the line: the 12 most likely to make the field. The 12th team is at 42%Outside the top 12
KentuckyCommittee No. 6 · 7-1at TennesseeSat 6:15 PM ET · ESPN42▼34 ▲59Try itPreview ›
USCCommittee No. 20 · 7-234Off this week
UCLACommittee No. 8 · 8-0at MinnesotaSat 12:00 PM ET · FOX33▼21 ▲43Try itPreview ›
MissouriCommittee No. 18 · 6-2vs TexasSat 12:00 PM ET · ESPN27▼18 ▲39Try itPreview ›
TennesseeCommittee No. 13 · 6-2vs KentuckySat 6:15 PM ET · ESPN23▼11 ▲28Try itPreview ›
FloridaCommittee No. 24 · 5-3vs OklahomaSat 7:45 PM ET · SEC Network22▼11 ▲28Try itPreview ›
BYUCommittee No. 9 · 7-1at UtahSat 12:00 PM ET · ABC17▼9 ▲29Try itPreview ›
OregonCommittee No. 23 · 5-3at Ohio StateSat 3:30 PM ET · CBS16▼8 ▲30Try itPreview ›
UTSA7-1at Florida AtlanticThu 7:30 PM ET · ESPN16▼9 ▲20Try itPreview ›
Texas A&M4-4at South CarolinaSat 3:00 PM ET · ESPN15▼7 ▲21Try itPreview ›
Wake ForestCommittee No. 16 · 7-114Off this week
SMU6-2vs Virginia TechFri 7:00 PM ET · ESPN12▼4 ▲16Try itPreview ›

The conference title races

Every conference on the same 0 to 100 scale, the conferences with the most at stake this week first.

Sun Belt

James Madison leads at 30%. Saturday takes James Madison to 45% with a win or 12% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
James Madison7-2at Southern MissThu 8:00 PM ET · ESPN230▼12 ▲45Try itPreview ›
Louisiana Tech6-2at TroySat 4:00 PM ET30▼24 ▲37Try itPreview ›
Louisiana5-3vs South AlabamaSat 5:00 PM ET12▼2 ▲15Try itPreview ›
Georgia Southern4-4vs MarshallSat 3:30 PM ET10▼4 ▲14Try itPreview ›
Marshall5-3at Georgia SouthernSat 3:30 PM ET5▼1 ▲10Try itPreview ›

Big Ten

Ohio State leads at 46%. Saturday takes Ohio State to 56% with a win or 28% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
Ohio StateNo. 11 · 6-2vs OregonSat 3:30 PM ET · CBS46▼28 ▲56Try itPreview ›
IndianaNo. 6 · 8-119Off this week
UCLANo. 5 · 8-0at MinnesotaSat 12:00 PM ET · FOX16▼10 ▲20Try itPreview ›
USCNo. 18 · 7-28Off this week
Oregon5-3at Ohio StateSat 3:30 PM ET · CBS6▼0 ▲16Try itPreview ›

SEC

Georgia leads at 48%. Saturday takes Georgia to 59% with a win or 35% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
GeorgiaNo. 2 · 7-1at Ole MissSat 7:30 PM ET · ABC48▼35 ▲59Try itPreview ›
AlabamaNo. 9 · 6-2at LSUSat 3:30 PM ET · ABC14▼3 ▲24Try itPreview ›
TexasNo. 10 · 6-2at MissouriSat 12:00 PM ET · ESPN11▼3 ▲15Try itPreview ›
Ole MissNo. 12 · 6-2vs GeorgiaSat 7:30 PM ET · ABC10▼1 ▲19Try itPreview ›
LSUNo. 15 · 6-2vs AlabamaSat 3:30 PM ET · ABC7▼1 ▲11Try itPreview ›
KentuckyNo. 8 · 7-1at TennesseeSat 6:15 PM ET · ESPN5▼3 ▲10Try itPreview ›

Pac-12

Boise State leads at 55%. Saturday takes Boise State to 57% with a win or 51% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
Boise StateNo. 20 · 7-1at Colorado StateSat 6:00 PM ET · USA55▼51 ▲57Try itPreview ›
Oregon State5-3vs Texas StateSat 10:30 PM ET · The CW21▼10 ▲30Try itPreview ›
Texas State4-4at Oregon StateSat 10:30 PM ET · The CW10▼1 ▲19Try itPreview ›
Fresno State5-3at Utah StateSat 9:30 PM ET · USA8▼3 ▲13Try itPreview ›

Big 12

Utah leads at 37%. Saturday takes Utah to 43% with a win or 28% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
UtahNo. 3 · 8-0vs BYUSat 12:00 PM ET · ABC37▼28 ▲43Try itPreview ›
Texas TechNo. 13 · 7-1vs West VirginiaSat 9:30 PM ET · ESPN37▼21 ▲40Try itPreview ›
BYUNo. 7 · 7-1at UtahSat 12:00 PM ET · ABC14▼8 ▲24Try itPreview ›
HoustonNo. 17 · 6-2vs CincinnatiSat 3:30 PM ET · FOX6▼1 ▲7Try itPreview ›

Mid-American

Western Michigan leads at 36%.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
Western Michigan6-336Off this week
Ohio7-233Off this week
Toledo6-2at Sacramento StateWed 7:00 PM ET · CBSSN22▼12 ▲28Try itPreview ›

Mountain West

New Mexico leads at 49%. Saturday takes New Mexico to 53% with a win or 43% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
New MexicoNo. 22 · 7-1at NevadaFri 9:00 PM ET · CBSSN49▼43 ▲53Try itPreview ›
North Dakota State7-225Off this week
UNLV5-3vs WyomingSat 10:30 PM ET · CBSSN21▼8 ▲25Try itPreview ›

American Athletic

UTSA leads at 40%. Saturday takes UTSA to 46% with a win or 32% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
UTSA7-1at Florida AtlanticThu 7:30 PM ET · ESPN40▼32 ▲46Try itPreview ›
North Texas6-2vs RiceSat 4:00 PM ET · ESPNU24▼13 ▲27Try itPreview ›
Memphis7-223Off this week
South Florida6-2at East CarolinaFri 7:30 PM ET · ESPN26▼1 ▲10Try itPreview ›

ACC

Miami leads at 70%.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
MiamiNo. 1 · 8-070Off this week
Wake ForestNo. 14 · 7-112Off this week
SMU6-2vs Virginia TechFri 7:00 PM ET · ESPN11▼4 ▲15Try itPreview ›

Conference USA

Liberty leads at 58%. Saturday takes Liberty to 59% with a win or 54% with a loss.

050100%now▼ if loss · ▲ if win
Liberty7-1at New Mexico StateSat 8:00 PM ET · ESPNU58▼54 ▲59Try itPreview ›
Jacksonville State6-2vs Sam HoustonSat 7:00 PM ET · CBSSN34▼28 ▲37Try itPreview ›

The bowl chase: games for the sixth win

Small squares are this season's games: green won, red lost, outlined is still to play, ink is this week. The six larger slots fill with wins toward a bowl. Under each team: its chance of a sixth win now, after a loss and after a win.

Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan Wed, Nov 4 · 7:30 PM ET

Central Michigan3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left31% now · 14% with a loss · 52% with a win
Eastern Michigan4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 3 left49% now · 18% with a loss · 75% with a win

If Central Michigan loses, it is left at 14%. If Eastern Michigan loses, it is left at 18%.

Texas State at Oregon State Sat, Nov 7 · 10:30 PM ET

Texas State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 3 left63% now · 41% with a loss · 86% with a win
Oregon State5 of 6 wins · needs 1 of 3 left88% now · 76% with a loss · 100% with a win

If Texas State loses, it is left at 41%. If Oregon State loses, it is left at 76%.

Arkansas at Auburn Sat, Nov 7 · 12:45 PM ET

Arkansas3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left4% now · 1% with a loss · 10% with a win
Auburn4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left86% now · 56% with a loss · 99% with a win

If Arkansas loses, it is left at 1%. If Auburn loses, it is left at 56%.

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee Sat, Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET

Western Kentucky3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left33% now · 11% with a loss · 49% with a win
Middle Tennessee4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left59% now · 41% with a loss · 84% with a win

If Western Kentucky loses, it is left at 11%. If Middle Tennessee loses, it is left at 41%.

Florida State at Boston College Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

Florida State3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left29% now · 9% with a loss · 41% with a win
Boston College4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left21% now · 5% with a loss · 48% with a win

If Florida State loses, it is left at 9%. If Boston College loses, it is left at 5%.

Georgia State at App State Sat, Nov 7 · 2:30 PM ET

Georgia State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left56% now · 38% with a loss · 80% with a win
App State5 of 6 wins · needs 1 of 4 left95% now · 89% with a loss · 100% with a win

If Georgia State loses, it is left at 38%. If App State loses, it is left at 89%.

Iowa State at Baylor Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

Iowa State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left51% now · 42% with a loss · 83% with a win
Baylor5 of 6 wins · needs 1 of 4 left94% now · 76% with a loss · 100% with a win

If Iowa State loses, it is left at 42%. If Baylor loses, it is left at 76%.

Colorado at Arizona State Sat, Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET

Colorado3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left19% now · 8% with a loss · 39% with a win
Arizona State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left72% now · 46% with a loss · 87% with a win

If Colorado loses, it is left at 8%. If Arizona State loses, it is left at 46%.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State Sat, Nov 7 · 4:15 PM ET

Vanderbilt3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left9% now · 2% with a loss · 18% with a win
Mississippi State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left82% now · 59% with a loss · 99% with a win

If Vanderbilt loses, it is left at 2%. If Mississippi State loses, it is left at 59%.

Tulsa at Tulane Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

Tulsa4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left73% now · 60% with a loss · 93% with a win
Tulane4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left69% now · 46% with a loss · 86% with a win

If Tulsa loses, it is left at 60%. If Tulane loses, it is left at 46%.

North Carolina at UConn Sat, Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

North Carolina4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left62% now · 43% with a loss · 83% with a win
UConn4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left81% now · 67% with a loss · 95% with a win

If North Carolina loses, it is left at 43%. If UConn loses, it is left at 67%.

Oklahoma State at Kansas State Sat, Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET

Oklahoma State5 of 6 wins · needs 1 of 4 left76% now · 68% with a loss · 100% with a win
Kansas State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left76% now · 48% with a loss · 86% with a win

If Oklahoma State loses, it is left at 68%. If Kansas State loses, it is left at 48%.

Missouri State at Florida International Sat, Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET

Missouri State3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left19% now · 6% with a loss · 37% with a win
Florida International3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left38% now · 14% with a loss · 53% with a win

If Missouri State loses, it is left at 6%. If Florida International loses, it is left at 14%.

UCF at Kansas Sat, Nov 7 · 3:45 PM ET

UCF4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left66% now · 53% with a loss · 89% with a win
Kansas3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left34% now · 11% with a loss · 46% with a win

If UCF loses, it is left at 53%. If Kansas loses, it is left at 11%.

Delaware at Kennesaw State Sat, Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

Delaware4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left72% now · 56% with a loss · 90% with a win
Kennesaw State2 of 6 wins · needs 4 of 4 left5% now · 0% with a loss · 9% with a win

If Delaware loses, it is left at 56%. If Kennesaw State loses, it is left at 0%.

Nebraska at Illinois Fri, Nov 6 · 8:00 PM ET

Nebraska5 of 6 wins · needs 1 of 4 left94% now · 86% with a loss · 100% with a win
Illinois5 of 6 wins · needs 1 of 4 left79% now · 67% with a loss · 100% with a win

If Nebraska loses, it is left at 86%. If Illinois loses, it is left at 67%.

Ball State at Massachusetts Wed, Nov 4 · 7:00 PM ET

Ball State3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 4 left23% now · 7% with a loss · 39% with a win
Massachusetts4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left15% now · 3% with a loss · 25% with a win

If Ball State loses, it is left at 7%. If Massachusetts loses, it is left at 3%.

Penn State at Washington Sat, Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET

Penn State4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left73% now · 63% with a loss · 93% with a win
Washington5 of 6 wins · needs 1 of 4 left95% now · 87% with a loss · 100% with a win

If Penn State loses, it is left at 63%. If Washington loses, it is left at 87%.

Texas A&M at South Carolina Sat, Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

Texas A&M4 of 6 wins · needs 2 of 4 left81% now · 67% with a loss · 94% with a win
South Carolina5 of 6 wins · needs 1 of 4 left94% now · 90% with a loss · 100% with a win

If Texas A&M loses, it is left at 67%. If South Carolina loses, it is left at 90%.

Fresno State at Utah State Sat, Nov 7 · 9:30 PM ET

Fresno State5 of 6 wins · needs 1 of 3 left92% now · 85% with a loss · 100% with a win
Utah State3 of 6 wins · needs 3 of 3 left7% now · 0% with a loss · 13% with a win

If Fresno State loses, it is left at 85%. If Utah State loses, it is left at 0%.

Last week's calls: our playoff odds before the game, and where they landed

Florida lost to Georgia: 36% → 22%We had said 52% with a win and 28% with a loss.
Notre Dame won over Navy: 70% → 69%We had said 70% with a win and 46% with a loss.
Texas Tech won over Arizona: 30% → 43%We had said 38% with a win and 15% with a loss.
Ole Miss won over Auburn: 41% → 51%We had said 46% with a win and 23% with a loss.
Indiana won over Minnesota: 33% → 42%We had said 38% with a win and 16% with a loss.
Boise State won over Texas State: 42% → 53%We had said 48% with a win and 28% with a loss.

How these odds are made60 games to play · 2026 season, Week 10Full playoff forecast Scores and schedule Wildest games