Oregon at Ohio State
Ohio State (#11, 6‑2) hosts Oregon (5‑3). The market has Ohio State favored by 7.5. The model gives Ohio State a 65% shot. Oregon’s rushing offense is at the 16th percentile; Ohio State’s run defense is at the 91st.
How they got here
Last three games
Oregon · 5-3
Rated 3rd in our preseason ratings, 11th now.
2-1 in its last three, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Ohio State · 6-2
Rated 4th in our preseason ratings, 2nd now.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Oregon’s rushing EPA against Ohio State, 75 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oregon’s rushing EPA against Ohio State’s defense
Oregon offense, 16th percentile · Ohio State defense, 91st
Oregon’s EPA/play against Ohio State’s defense
Oregon offense, 49th percentile · Ohio State defense, 92nd
Ohio State’s explosive plays against Oregon’s defense
Ohio State offense, 66th percentile · Oregon defense, 27th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Ohio State projected #3 seed · Oregon projected #8 seed
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
Ohio State leads the series 10-2
12 meetings since 1957 · Ohio State won the last meeting
- 2024 · neutral siteOhio State 41-21
- 2024Oregon 32-31
- 2021Oregon 35-28
- 2014 · neutral siteOhio State 42-20
- 2009 · neutral siteOhio State 26-17
Each line is Ohio State’s chance to win through that meeting. Ohio State is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Oregon
The chip · vs the national mediaThe take that all the money and flash still haven't bought the one thing that matters — that Oregon is a great brand and a very good team, not a champion. The fanbase wants the ring that ends the distinction.
What this game touches
The 56-22 semifinal — the brand humbled by a basketball school. Oregon made the Playoff for the second straight year in 2025 (11-1, the #5 seed) and got routed 56-22 by eventual champion Indiana in the Peach Bowl semifinal — the flashiest program in the sport blown out by a school that had never mattered, the title drought extended again.
Ohio State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans here believe the take that the titles are hollow as long as Michigan owns The Game — a narrative the 2024 championship was supposed to silence and somehow didn't. In Columbus, the asterisk is the rivalry, not the trophy.
Best players
Oregon
- Koi Perich (DB) · 53 tackles
- Devon Jackson (LB) · 48 tackles
- Dakorien Moore (WR) · 545 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 39th (+14000)
Ohio State
- Jeremiah Smith (WR) · 1,067 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 1st (+280)
- Julian Sayin (QB) · 2,007 passing yards
- Earl Little II (S) · 43 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Ohio State: Julian Sayin (2,007 passing yards) and Bo Jackson (637 rushing yards).
The total has moved down 6.0 points since opening (52.5 → 46.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Oregon fans are in a better mood than Ohio State fans (49th percentile vs 19th among FBS fanbases), even with Ohio State favored.
- Model · 65%
- Line · 73%
- Ohio State fans · 19th
- Oregon fans · 49th
Ohio State favored by 7.5 · Total 46.5
Ohio State by 7.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Ohio State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Ohio Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 87 to 90
Oregon at Ohio State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · Ohio Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Ohio Stadium: noon Saturdays score 90, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 90.
- noon: 90, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Ohio State is worth +6.7 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.
95% at home, 84% on the road against FBS opponents (53-3 home, 32-6 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 2,054 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Ohio State
- Wk 4Wvs Illinois42-19
- Wk 5Wat Iowa31-14
- Wk 6Wvs Maryland45-16
- Wk 7Wat Indiana19-15
- Wk 9Lat USC18-30
Oregon
- Wk 4Wat USC41-27
- Wk 6Lvs UCLA15-17
- Wk 7Wvs Nebraska17-14
- Wk 8Lat Illinois10-21
- Wk 9Wvs Northwestern34-26
Power rating by week
Ohio State is rated 4.0 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Ohio State.
The total fell 6 points.
Spread: −6 → −7.5 · Total: 52.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Ohio State3rd4-1
- Oregon10th3-2
Last meeting in our History pages
- Ohio State 41, Oregon 21College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl · Jan 1, 2025
Our History pages cover 4 of their meetings since 2015.