The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 11 Ohio State 28%, No. 21 Iowa 40%, Illinois 60%
Win out 6% · expect 2.2 of 4 more wins
Nebraska's chance to win each game left, from our model: Illinois 60%, Rutgers 89%, Ohio State 28%, Iowa 40%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 62% to 94%, peaking at 100% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 11th in the Big Ten · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Anthony Colandrea 1,824 · Rushing Jamal Rule 463 · Receiving Kwazi Gilmer 545 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #40 | #50 | −23.5✓ +4.5 | Ohio | W 49-21 139 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Colandrea 275 · Rush Rule 122 · Rec Nelson 65 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #37 | #121 | −30.5✓ +18.5 | Bowling Green | W 56-7 114 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Colandrea 222 · Rush Rule 88 · Rec Barney Jr. 115 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #37 | #124 | −27.5✗ −0.5 | North Dakota | W 34-7 126 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Colandrea 195 · Rush Rule 119 · Rec Gilmer 42 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #33 | #132 | −6✓ +12 | @Michigan State | W 31-13 128 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Colandrea 212 · Rush Colandrea 66 · Rec Gilmer 101 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #28 | #76 | −15.5✓ +9.5 | Maryland | W 48-23 144 | 5-0 | 2-0 | Pass Colandrea 238 · Rush Colandrea 108 · Rec Gilmer 147 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #19 | #6 | +9.5✓ +6.5 | Indiana | L 17-20 127 Loud | 5-1 | 2-1 | Pass Colandrea 263 · Rush Rule 53 · Rec Barney Jr. 108 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #17 | #8 | +6.5✓ +3.5 | @Oregon | L 14-17 143 | 5-2 | 2-2 | Pass Colandrea 164 · Rush Colandrea 38 · Rec Gilmer 74 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #18 | #37 | −7.5✗ −14.5 | Washington | L 10-17 136 Loud | 5-3 | 2-3 | Pass Colandrea 255 · Rush Rule 72 · Rec Barney Jr. 65 |
| 10 | Nov 6 | #24 | #71 | −4.5 | @Illinois | 8 pm ET · FOX60% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #25 | #106 | @Rutgers | time TBA89% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Ohio State | time TBA28% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @Iowa | 12 pm ET · CBS | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Nebraska, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Nebraska: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Washington | L 10-17 | 387 | 3 | 30:42 | -0.088 | 41.3% | 1.06 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @Oregon | L 14-17 | 242 | 1 | 29:37 | -0.130 | 26.5% | 1.65 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Indiana | L 17-20 | 391 | 1 | 39:33 | +0.035 | 39.8% | 1.34 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | Maryland | W 48-23 | 447 | 1 | 34:24 | +0.202 | 48.1% | 1.16 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | @Michigan State | W 31-13 | 369 | 0 | 30:19 | +0.239 | 44.9% | 1.33 | |
| Sep 19 | North Dakota | W 34-7 | 493 | 0 | 35:45 | +0.379 | 43.1% | 1.51 | |
| Sep 12 | Bowling Green | W 56-7 | 546 | 1 | 31:41 | +0.587 | 60.6% | 1.37 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Ohio | W 49-21 | 523 | 0 | 30:39 | +0.493 | 51.4% | 1.54 | Blowout win |
| Season average (8 games) | 425 | 0.9 | +0.215 | 44.4% | 1.37 | ||||
Nebraska's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Each gold dot is a story from that week. Tap one to read it.
1% now · ▼ 4 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Rob Aurich replaced John Butler as Nebraska's defensive coordinator.
Statusbackground
Range of outcomes · Nebraska · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 2%; 6 wins 20%; 7 wins 43%; 8 wins 29%; 9 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 163 of 27959 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (343 posts): 8% positive · 36% neutral · 56% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Nebraska is the most loyal sad fanbase in America — still selling out for a program that hasn't mattered in October since the '90s — and just watched the quarterback it built its future around leave for Oregon.
The take that Nebraska is a museum — a great history and a hollow present, coasting on a sellout streak and 1990s highlights. The fanbase answers with the streak itself: still there, still full…
Nebraska · Game-day weather
Typical at Memorial Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 83 to 86
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 113 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Nebraska is the program with three national titles, a 25-year drought, and the most patient fanbase in college football.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Nebraska · 2026