The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 23 Northwestern 41%, Nebraska 60%
Win out 17% · expect 2.7 of 4 more wins
Iowa's chance to win each game left, from our model: Northwestern 41%, Purdue 88%, Illinois 80%, Nebraska 60%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 7% to 3%, peaking at 8% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the Big Ten · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Hank Brown 1,190 · Rushing Kamari Moulton 541 · Receiving Tony Diaz 461 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Iowa:athletics siteBig TenXYouTubeInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #13 | #101 | −31.5✓ +8.5 | Northern Illinois | W 40-0 133 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 129 · Rush Moulton 183 · Rec Diaz 84 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #13 | #159 | −14✗ −11 | Iowa State | W 16-13 112 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 191 · Rush Moulton 57 · Rec Diaz 95 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #17 | #169 | −37.5✓ +17.5 | Northern Iowa | W 55-0 122 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 153 · Rush Williams 151 · Rec Mcneil 37 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #19 | #21 | +4.5✓ +5.5 | @MichiganTop 25 win | W 20-19 127 Firestorm | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Brown 227 · Rush Moulton 44 · Rec Zee 66 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #16 | #2 | +14.5✗ −2.5 | Ohio State | L 14-31 127 Loud | 4-1 | 1-1 | Pass Brown 132 · Rush Moulton 27 · Rec Vonnahme 64 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | #15 | #32 | +3✓ +20 | @Washington | W 41-24 133 | 5-1 | 2-1 | Pass Hecklinski 202 · Rush Moulton 208 · Rec Zee 69 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #17 | #64 | −7.5✗ −10.5 | @Minnesota | L 10-13 129 | 5-2 | 2-2 | Pass Brown 136 · Rush Phillips Jr. 25 · Rec Zee 69 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #22 | #39 | −2.5✓ +27.5 | WisconsinTop 25 win | W 30-0 117 | 6-2 | 3-2 | Pass Brown 222 · Rush Williams 78 · Rec Diaz 75 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #17 | #10 | +2.5 | @Northwestern | 7:30 pm ET · FOX41% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #16 | #93 | Purdue | time TBA88% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Illinois | time TBA80% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | Nebraska | 12 pm ET · CBS | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Iowa, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Iowa: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Wisconsin | W 30-0 | 362 | 1 | 36:21 | +0.080 | 46.3% | 1.13 | Blowout win |
| Oct 24 | @Minnesota | L 10-13 | 288 | 4 | 31:07 | -0.312 | 34.3% | 1.12 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 9 | @Washington | W 41-24 | 465 | 0 | 28:19 | +0.449 | 60.3% | 1.14 | |
| Oct 3 | Ohio State | L 14-31 | 238 | 2 | 21:58 | -0.088 | 40.7% | 1.10 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | @Michigan | W 20-19 | 285 | 0 | 25:31 | +0.032 | 28.3% | 1.61 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | Northern Iowa | W 55-0 | 640 | 0 | 32:15 | +0.675 | 62.5% | 1.38 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Iowa State | W 16-13 | 284 | 0 | 29:42 | -0.037 | 38.3% | 0.90 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | Northern Illinois | W 40-0 | 507 | 1 | 33:51 | +0.061 | 41.8% | 1.25 | Blowout win |
| Season average (8 games) | 384 | 1.0 | +0.107 | 44.1% | 1.20 | ||||
Iowa's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last one.
The staff did a great job of giving our guys a good plan, but most importantly, it’s the players
3% now · ▲ 2 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Ferentz's 26-11 run has Iowa in dynasty territory for the first time since 2021, but the market's 7.5-win projection suggests skepticism about sustaining that grind.
Statusfront page
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Iowa · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 8%; 8 wins 31%; 9 wins 43%; 10 wins 17%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Iowa has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 13% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 23% a year ago. It is a 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons. The model registered a structural rise before the coverage did. Results on the field will test it.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Iowa wins the same way every autumn — a suffocating defense, a punter who flips the field, and a final score in the twenties — and the Hawkeyes have stopped pretending they're sorry about any of it.
Hawkeye fans are tired of the highlight shows treating their brand of football as a punchline; they'll tell you the punt is a weapon and a 13-10 win counts the same as a 49-42 one, and they relish…
Iowa · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Cold. Bring a heavy coat.
Iowa at Northwestern · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:30 pm ET · FOX · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
This game is at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. The kickoff times below are for Kinnick Stadium, Iowa's home stadium.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 113 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Iowa is the program where defense, punting, and 13-10 wins compound into 8-10 wins a year, decade after decade.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #14, Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News), to #25, Zach Klein (WSB).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
2Ferentz's 26-11 run has Iowa in dynasty territory for the first time since 2021, but the market's 7.5-win projection suggests skepticism about sustaining that grind.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Iowa · 2026