The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 6 Indiana 6%
Win out <1% · expect 1.0 of 4 more wins
Purdue's chance to win each game left, from our model: Maryland 59%, Iowa 12%, Wisconsin 28%, Indiana 6%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 38% to 15%, peaking at 52% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 11th in the Big Ten · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Ryan Browne 1,964 · Rushing Fame Ijeboi 588 · Receiving Asaad Waseem 652 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #119 | #219 | −35.5✗ −10.5 | Indiana State | W 44-19 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Browne 317 · Rush Ijeboi 87 · Rec Waseem 107 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #117 | #79 | +2.5✓ +0.5 | Wake Forest | L 36-38 150 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Browne 329 · Rush Ijeboi 114 · Rec Magwood 77 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #118 | #50 | +13.5✗ −0.5 | @UCLA | L 38-52 139 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Browne 378 · Rush Ijeboi 47 · Rec Townsend 162 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #123 | #3 | +27.5✗ −11.5 | Notre Dame | L 10-49 126 | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Browne 111 · Rush Ijeboi 41 · Rec Harris 36 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #113 | #59 | +9.5✓ +16.5 | @Illinois | W 24-17 124 | 2-3 | 1-1 | Pass Browne 255 · Rush Ijeboi 65 · Rec Waseem 98 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #106 | #44 | +2.5✓ +30.5 | Minnesota | W 41-13 123 | 3-3 | 2-1 | Pass Browne 159 · Rush Ijeboi 195 · Rec Morrissette 51 |
| 7 | Oct 16 | #79 | #35 | −3✗ −15 | Washington | L 26-38 129 | 3-4 | 2-2 | Pass Browne 273 · Rush Harris 65 · Rec Waseem 116 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #87 | #48 | +10✗ −4 | @Penn State | L 17-31 120 | 3-5 | 2-3 | Pass Browne 142 · Rush Ijeboi 20 · Rec Waseem 64 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #93 | #113 | −6 | Maryland | 12:30 pm ET · BTN59% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #93 | #16 | @Iowa | time TBA12% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Wisconsin | time TBA28% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Indiana | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Purdue, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Purdue: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Penn State | L 17-31 | 175 | 2 | 16:33 | -0.212 | 24.4% | 1.70 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 16 | Washington | L 26-38 | 371 | 2 | 30:44 | -0.140 | 33.3% | 1.53 | |
| Oct 10 | Minnesota | W 41-13 | 464 | 0 | 37:07 | +0.261 | 47.3% | 1.23 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | @Illinois | W 24-17 | 345 | 0 | 31:33 | +0.300 | 45.2% | 1.27 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | Notre Dame | L 10-49 | 218 | 1 | 35:16 | -0.063 | 37.7% | 0.88 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 19 | @UCLA | L 38-52 | 488 | 3 | 23:50 | +0.387 | 47.5% | 1.69 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Wake Forest | L 36-38 | 455 | 0 | 32:12 | +0.293 | 50.0% | 1.09 | Best success rate |
| Sep 4 | Indiana State | W 44-19 | 523 | 0 | 37:22 | +0.372 | 50.0% | 1.18 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 380 | 1.0 | +0.150 | 41.9% | 1.32 | ||||
Purdue's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Range of outcomes · Purdue · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 25%; 4 wins 50%; 5 wins 23%; 6 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Purdue is the Cradle of Quarterbacks — the West Lafayette program that put Brees, Griese, and Dawson in the NFL — now digging out of back-to-back two-win seasons with Barry Odom hired to rebuild it from the studs.
Indiana spent a century as the easy in-state laughingstock — until the Hoosiers surged and Purdue cratered, and the Old Oaken Bucket started living on the wrong side of West Lafayette. The fanbase…
Purdue · Game-day weather
Typical at Ross-Ade Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 88
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Purdue is the Big Ten 'Cradle of Quarterbacks' — 14 NFL starting QBs developed, Drew Brees' 2000 8-1 + Rose Bowl run, and the 2022 9-4 + Big Ten title game under Jeff Brohm.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2023
85th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Purdue · 2026