underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Vinny Anthony produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Wisconsin
1-1Latest
Big Ten · Luke Fickell, year 5 (18-22) · Camp Randall Stadium · 80,321 · 65,274 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#88 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #74 (-1.5) · FPI #56
The marketWisconsin by 23.5vs Eastern Michigan · our model 75% Wisconsin · a number, not a pick
LastW 36–9 vs Western Illinois · Sat Sep 12 · Abu Sama III 107 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Nextvs Eastern Michigan · Sat Sep 19 · 12:30 pm ET · Camp Randall Stadium · Wisconsin by 23.5 · series 4-0, won the last 4 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Wisconsin · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #86 | #1 | +21✗ | Notre Dame (N) | L 13–41 122 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #77 | #170 | -43.5✗ | Western Illinois | W 36–9 115 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #89 | #119 | -23.5 | Eastern Michigan | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #90 | #35 | @Penn State | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Michigan State | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @UCLA | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | USC | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Iowa | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Rutgers | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Maryland | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Purdue | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Minnesota |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Western Illinois | W 36–9 | 406 | 0 | 25:03 | +0.318 | 39.3% | 159.5% | |
| Sep 6 | Notre Dame | L 13–41 | 284 | 2 | 28:24 | -0.043 | 37.7% | 126.4% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 345 | 1.0 | +0.138 | 38.5% | 143.0% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Wisconsin spent twenty years building the same machine — a 250-pound running back behind a 320-pound line, three yards and a cloud of dust — and watched a new staff trade it for a passing game that went 4-8, leaving the fanbase to wonder whether the thing that made the Badgers the Badgers is recoverable.
Title DroughtSince 2012 · 14 yrs
Fans heard it for years — that the program was a throwback that couldn't keep up, too plodding for the modern game, a system that printed yards against everyone but the playoff teams. Wisconsin always…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Wisconsin fans
Wisconsin fans
r/CFB
▲ 9945 · 1w ago
Notre Dame fans on Wisconsin
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 4-8 · last season
Game feel34rock fightscombined pts / game18th highest-scoring of 18 in the Big Ten
Heart rate1-0rarely closein one-score games (1 of 12)18th most one-score games of 18 in the Big Ten
Margin-8.8outgunnedavg scoring margin16th best margin of 18 in the Big Ten
Tempo58methodicaloffensive plays / game18th fastest of 18 in the Big Ten
Big plays1.22some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)7th most explosive of 18 in the Big Ten
Home crowd70,824avg attendance5th biggest crowds of 18 in the Big Ten
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Wisconsin has won two of its last five.
Cooling. 3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 3-7
You know, it’s just a moment, and we were going to have his back. We just had to move on to the next play
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Eastern Michigan · at home
Season line6.5 winsover -125
PoorRun-heavy, ground-controlSoft
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total2 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#65 in field+50000
Big Ten title#10 in market+8000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Wisconsin · the story right now
4 storylines developing
What Wisconsin's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Lance Mason is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Trech Kekahuna: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Wisconsin dropped 25 spots in SP+ — Luke Fickell's third season opens with the worst analytics collapse in the Big Ten this cycle.
what happenedWisconsin enters 2025 rated No. 85 in SP+ (-4.4), down 25 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downWisconsin's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downWisconsin's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Wisconsin · 2026
Outcome band · Wisconsin · 2026Wisconsin's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.
Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6
0 wins13 wins
Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Wisconsin · Season outlook Confidence
Wisconsin's numbers fell sharply. The model sees a program under real pressure.
Wisconsin enters 2025 rated No. 85 in SP+ (-4.4), down 25 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
skeptical — but there's a bull case
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics10 doubt takes
Believers5 bull takes
💬 fans: 8% volume
The saga so far~2 months old
2 weeks agoNotre Dame releases depth chart for Wisconsin game — Reported
Aug 8Win total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 12d after "Wisconsin DL Torin Pettaway dismissed from team"
Aug 7Win total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 11d after "Wisconsin DL Torin Pettaway dismissed from team"
Aug 6Win total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 10d after "Wisconsin DL Torin Pettaway dismissed from team"
Aug 5Win total (line at 6.5) — no reprice yet on "Wisconsin DL Torin Pettaway dismissed from team"
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Wisconsin dropped 25 spots in SP+ — Luke Fickell's third season opens with the worst analytics collapse in the Big Ten this cycle.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a steep fall isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop. A 'they're down' narrative accelerates the attrition that drove the decline. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Wisconsin enters 2025 rated No. 85 in SP+ (-4.4), down 25 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“PFF Grades and Notes From Wisconsin Football's Week 2 Win Over Western Illinois”
Yahoo Sports Canada · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“What We Learned from Wisconsin’s win over Western Illinois”
Beat writer · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Wisconsin football report card from 36-9 win over Western Illinois”
Dillon Graff · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Former Wisconsin quarterback looked incredible in UNC's Week 2 w” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“Former Wisconsin quarterback looked incredible in UNC's Week 2 win”
Badgers Wire · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Badgers Behind the Scenes: Iceman Cale Klein”
Wisconsin Badgers · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
💬The boards8% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.›
This event was in 194 of 2399 board posts (8%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Some solace in winning comfortably against a bad team. Been awhile since they've done that. As inconsistent as the offense was, they did have 4 explosive plays, which might equal t"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Well Wisconsin had the win wrapped up the 1st quarter. Beyond that, not the most inspiring of performances."
r/CFB ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rival pulse
Iowa
Mixed+0
Heartland Trophy
Nebraska
Mixed+1
Freedom Trophy
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Wisconsin is the program that turned the Big Ten's clichés into actual football.
Offense: PoorRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlDefense: Soft
Roster
Roster Reload - Wisconsin
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production31%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#30 nationally247 composite 767.7
Portal Additions33Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses25Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#78Depth class
WRin 5 - Shamar Rigbyout 4 - Trech KekahunaUpgrade
current room: 195 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down
Transferred in
DLin 4 - Junior Poyserout 2 - Jamel HowardNeed Filled
current room: 306 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Base2025 profilewins his gap play after play
our read Two-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile
EDGEin 3 - Justus Booneout 3 - Ernest Willor Jr.Upgrade
Two-Gap Base2025 profilewins his gap play after play
Transferred in
RBin 3 - Abu Sama IIIout 2 - Dilin JonesEven
current room: 214 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Back2025 profiledoes a little of everything without one standout trait
Homegrown
Full roster (118 players)
CBBryce West, Cai Bates, Carsen Eloms, Dashaun Moss, Donovan Dunmore, Eric Fletcher, Jahmare Washington, Jai'Mier Scott, Javan Robinson
DLArthur Scott III, Charles Perkins, DeNigel Cooper, Dillan Johnson, Djidjou Bah, Hammond Russell IV, Hayden Metzger, Junior Poyser, Nolan Vils, Torin Pettaway, Xavier Ukponu
LBAaron Witt, Ashton Fickell, Ben Wenzel, Cooper Catalano, Drew Braam, Evan Van Dyn Hoven, Jayden Loftin, Jaylen Williams, Jon Jon Kamara, Justus Boone, Landon Gauthier, Liam Danitz, Mason Posa, Michael Garner, Nicolas Clayton, Sam Lateju, Sebastian Cheeks, Taylor Schaefer, Thomas Heiberger, Tyreese Fearbry, Will McDonald, Yahya Gaad
OLAiden Dirksen, Austin Kawecki, Barrett Nelson, Blake Cherry, Brady Bekkenhuis, Cam Clark, Colin Cubberly, Emerson Mandell, Evan Brown, Hardy Watts, Kevin Heywood, Logan Powell, Lucas Simmons, Michael Roeske, Nolan Davenport, PJ Wilkins, Peyton Lange, Ryan Cory, Stylz Blackmon
RBAbu Sama III, Bryan Jackson, Darrion Dupree, Gideon Ituka, Harrison Bortolotti, Juju Pope, Mason Lane, Nate Palmer
SCairo Skanes, Grant Dean, Kah'Ni Watts, Luke Emmerich, Marvin Burks Jr., Matthew Jung, Matthew Traynor, Raphael Dunn, Will Mikonowicz
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Wisconsin
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Wisconsin DL Torin Pettaway dismissed from team
Fickell's been loud about culture-building all spring — a dismissal at DL right before fall camp is the uncomfortable proof that the standard has teeth, even at a position Wisconsin can't spare depth at.
- News
Notre Dame releases depth chart for Wisconsin game
Notre Dame showing their hand before kickoff — with Fickell's LB room still thin and the O-line banged up, that depth chart tells Wisconsin exactly where the pressure is coming.
- News
Wisconsin player seeks extra eligibility
Matthew Jung hunting extra eligibility matters more than it looks — Fickell's LB room is already under a microscope at #27 nationally, and keeping a known quantity beats restarting the depth-chart math entirely.
- News
Wisconsin guard seeks fifth year eligibility
Carrington's injunction play is part of a broader eligibility fight reshaping roster math — Fickell's development class is already under pressure at LB, and a fifth year of guard depth is exactly the kind of quiet roster management that holds a #27 class together.
- News
Backup QB battle update
Fickell's backup QB competition heating up in fall camp matters more than usual — a #78 class and a coordinator overhaul at the skill level mean whoever wins that job inherits a system still finding its identity.
- News
Wisconsin updates key injuries in fall camp
Fall camp injury clarity matters more than usual when your LB depth is already thin and the class ranked #78 couldn't paper over every hole — Fickell needs bodies available, not question marks.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
+1.8 net portal points
(raw ledger: +37.9 — unweighted, no position adjustment)DL+10.0
need filled
CB+7.2
need filled
LB-4.7
starter risk
WR+3.8
RB+3.8
OT+3.6
QB+3.6
TE+3.4
IOL+2.9
EDGE+2.8
P+1.3
S+0.1
LS+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Brady Bekkenhuis
#415 national
★★★☆☆
Keeyshawn Tabuteau
#527 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Djidjou Bah
#608 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
16
CA · 3TN · 3WI · 2AZ · 1FL · 1IN · 1MA · 1MS · 1+3 more
CA leads the 2026 class with 3 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
80 signees across 28 states, 2023-2026. WI leads the pull.
That is 13.5% of every high-school FBS signee WI produced over those cycles — the biggest share any program takes — Northern Illinois is next. The full map →
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Wisconsin player grew up 374 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
50th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%118–802 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi20%21 of 104 players
Farthest1,667 miDorsett Stecker · Newport Beach, CA
Closest1 miAshton Fickell · Madison, WI
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Camp Randall Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 104 of 118 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
How it turned out
Belief history
↓
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2023
9th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
9th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(45th among FBS)
(45th among FBS)
Market 36pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 2 books
Penalties
Penalty battle
The penalty battle is a wash: 10 penalties committed vs. 10 drawn on opponents.
83 penalty yards committed vs. 91 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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