The rest of the season
One real test left: Minnesota 62%
Win out 27% · expect 2.9 of 4 more wins
Wisconsin's chance to win each game left, from our model: Rutgers 71%, Maryland 83%, Purdue 72%, Minnesota 62%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 62% to 97%, peaking at 99% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the Big Ten · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Colton Joseph 1,346 · Rushing Colton Joseph 371 · Receiving Tyrell Henry 397 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #86 | #1 | +21✗ −7 | Notre Dame (N) | L 13-41 122 Roaring | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Joseph 217 · Rush Sama III 49 · Rec Coleman 76 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #77 | #201 | −43.5✗ −16.5 | Western Illinois | W 36-9 115 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Joseph 173 · Rush Sama III 107 · Rec Henry 91 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #89 | #122 | −23.5✓ +20.5 | Eastern Michigan | W 54-10 123 Roaring | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Joseph 362 · Rush Joseph 46 · Rec Henry 160 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #81 | #31 | +9.5✓ +13.5 | @Penn StateTop 25 win | W 24-20 131 | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass Joseph 235 · Rush Dupree 52 · Rec Harris 105 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #66 | #125 | −8.5✓ +19.5 | Michigan State | W 31-3 141 | 4-1 | 2-0 | Pass Joseph 145 · Rush Joseph 141 · Rec Coleman 46 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #48 | #21 | +1.5✗ −8.5 | @UCLA | L 7-17 120 | 4-2 | 2-1 | Pass Joseph 66 · Rush Joseph 71 · Rec Domingeaux 26 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #49 | #23 | +1.5✓ +18.5 | USCTop 25 win | W 24-7 132 | 5-2 | 3-1 | Pass Joseph 58 · Rush Sama III 71 · Rec Hilton Jr. 18 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #39 | #22 | +2.5✗ −27.5 | @Iowa | L 0-30 117 | 5-3 | 3-2 | Pass Hopkins 93 · Rush Sama III 23 · Rec Domingeaux 86 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #45 | #106 | −16.5 | Rutgers | 4:15 pm ET · BTN71% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #46 | #117 | @Maryland | time TBA83% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Purdue | time TBA72% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | Minnesota | 7:30 pm ET · NBC | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Wisconsin, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Wisconsin: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Iowa | L 0-30 | 235 | 3 | 23:39 | -0.179 | 26.9% | 1.26 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | USC | W 24-7 | 200 | 0 | 32:36 | +0.032 | 42.1% | 0.96 | |
| Oct 17 | @UCLA | L 7-17 | 214 | 0 | 22:58 | -0.040 | 38.8% | 0.89 | |
| Oct 3 | Michigan State | W 31-3 | 373 | 0 | 28:50 | +0.264 | 31.2% | 1.87 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | @Penn State | W 24-20 | 355 | 3 | 29:34 | -0.034 | 36.4% | 1.48 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | Eastern Michigan | W 54-10 | 479 | 1 | 31:17 | +0.411 | 55.6% | 1.28 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Western Illinois | W 36-9 | 406 | 0 | 25:03 | +0.250 | 39.3% | 1.60 | |
| Sep 6 | Notre Dame | L 13-41 | 284 | 2 | 28:24 | -0.043 | 37.7% | 1.26 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 318 | 1.1 | +0.083 | 38.5% | 1.33 | ||||
Wisconsin's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
When you’re the head coach of a blue blood school, you have to be ready to weather the storms, the overly positive and overly negative
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Luke Fickell inherits a 4-8 losing record at Wisconsin, where the program's identity hinges on turning Big Ten clichés into results — a challenge that grows steeper with each passing season.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Wisconsin · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 6%; 7 wins 24%; 8 wins 43%; 9 wins 27%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Only 9 of 6901 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board health this week (670 posts): 12% positive · 39% neutral · 49% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Wisconsin spent twenty years building the same machine — a 250-pound running back behind a 320-pound line, three yards and a cloud of dust — and watched a new staff trade it for a passing game that went 4-8, leaving the fanbase to wonder whether the thing that made the Badgers the Badgers is recoverable.
Fans heard it for years — that the program was a throwback that couldn't keep up, too plodding for the modern game, a system that printed yards against everyone but the playoff teams. Wisconsin…
Wisconsin · Game-day weather
Typical at Camp Randall Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 84 to 88
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Wisconsin is the program that turned the Big Ten's clichés into actual football.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
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Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Wisconsin · 2026