Next game: vs Rutgers
Wisconsin’s best edge on Rutgers is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Wisconsin offense against Rutgers defense
Rutgers offense against Wisconsin defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.24 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 104 / 187 | 55.6 | 1346 | 7.2 | 11 #57 FBS | 5 | 130.1 | 40 | 48.3 | 6.6 | 4.6 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — 187 pass attempts and 91 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Joseph extends plays on the move until something opens up. Washington is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage32.7% 87th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %56.5% bottom 10th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Colton Joseph's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| 10 | 3 | 8 / 13 | 61.5 | 93 | 7.2 | 0 | 1 | 106.2 | — | 88.5 | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.24 EPA/play | 3 | 6 | 57 | 318 | 5.6 | 1 | 72 | 16.4 | 10.9 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 57 carries and 4 catches in 6 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Abu Sama III's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.01 EPA/play | 6 | 7 | 54 | 237 | 4.4 | 2 | 28 | 11.3 | 13.2 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 54 carries and 8 catches in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Dupree just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Williams is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Weight218 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.4 bottom 22th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Darrion Dupree's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.06 EPA/play | 21 | 5 | 34 | 123 | 3.6 | 1 | 14 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.30 EPA/play | — | 8 | 30 | 397 | 13.2 | 1 | 57 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 30 catches and 4 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Tyrell Henry's full player page | ||||||||
| Move TE · +0.64 EPA/play | 89 | 8 | 17 | 264 | 15.5 | 3 | 72 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 17 catches in 8 games. Fewer catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Harris creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Fleming is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception24.6 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate17.6% 81th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jacob Harris's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.78 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 15 | 252 | 16.8 | 3 | 75 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Boom-or-bustStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine This week's matchup — WR Jr. beats you over the top. Jr. is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception21.9 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chris Brooks Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.36 EPA/play | 13 | 8 | 14 | 143 | 10.2 | 1 | 20 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Eugene Hilton Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| +1.17 EPA/play | 4 | 3 | 5 | 122 | 24.4 | 2 | 46 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.68 EPA/play | 9 | 3 | 9 | 118 | 13.1 | 0 | 41 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.11 EPA/play | 85 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 | 8 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.9% 60th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Hammond Russell IV's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 92 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nolan Vils's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 30 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight333 lb 96th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Charles Perkins's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 76 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dillan Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 97 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight331 lb 95th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Junior Poyser's full player page | |||||||
| 95 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 44 | 8 | 76 | 36 | 40 | 2.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 76 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume76 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate3.3% bottom 20th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cooper Catalano's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 8 | 8 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Impact starter — 65 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 89th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume65 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mason Posa's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 15 | 8 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 6 #17 FBS | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. The rare part: he lives in the backfield — and he ranges sideline to sideline, too 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.6% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Solo tackle rate0.7 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint View Sebastian Cheeks's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 7 | 8 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.7% 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate11.8% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tyreese Fearbry's full player page | |||||||||
| — | 7 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 51 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 59 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 28 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 29 | 8 | 56 | 6 #43 FBS | 1 | 2 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Impact starter — 56 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.7% 65th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Matthew Jung's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 5 | 8 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 28 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.7% bottom 39th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bryce West's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 2 | 7 | 21 | 7 #20 FBS | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate33.3% 97th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Javan Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 6 | 8 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Jai'Mier Scott's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Cairo Skanes's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 4 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% bottom 38th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Marvin Burks Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 97 | 7 | 10/12 | 83.3 | 21/22 | 51 | 51 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 91 | 7 | 31 | 1356 | 43.7 | 70 | 14 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.19 EPA/play | 15 | 4 | 6 | 169 | 28.2 | 0 | 42 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.30 EPA/play | — | 8 | 4 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 18 |
Biggest plays from Wisconsin’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Wisconsin’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 1:13 · Wisconsin down 3, takes the leadColton Joseph finds Jacob Harris for a 72-yard touchdownWisconsin at Penn State, week 4Q4, 1:13 · Wisconsin 24, Penn State 201:13Go-ahead touchdown for Wisconsin with 1:13 left1:13Go-ahead touchdown for Wisconsin with 1:13 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Wisconsin with 1:13 leftC.Joseph pass complete short middle to J.Harris caught at WIS47, for 72 yards to the PSU00 touchdown,, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football- Q2, 1:51 · Wisconsin down 4, takes the leadBryan Jackson runs 5 yards for a touchdownUSC at Wisconsin, week 8Q2, 1:51 · Wisconsin 10, USC 7Bryan Jackson scores against former team USCBryan Jackson scores against former team USCB.Jackson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q3, 9:21 · Wisconsin up 3Colton Joseph finds Chris Brooks Jr. for a 16-yard touchdownUSC at Wisconsin, week 8Q3, 9:21 · Wisconsin 17, USC 7▲14%Wisconsin’s chance to win, 71% to 85%▲14%Wisconsin’s chance to win, 71% to 85%C.Joseph pass complete short right to C.Brooks Jr. caught at USC18, for 16 yards to the USC00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q2, 12:50 · Penn State up 3Josiah Zayas takes an interception 51 yards for a pick-sixWisconsin at Penn State, week 4Q2, 12:50 · Penn State 10, Wisconsin 051Pick-six51Pick-sixPick-sixC.Joseph pass intercepted by J.Zayas at PSU49 J.Zayas return 51 yards to the WIS00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football- Q1, 3:54 · USC down 3Cairo Skanes intercepts Jayden Maiava and returns it 27 yardsUSC at Wisconsin, week 8Q1, 3:54 · USC 0, Wisconsin 3▼12%USC’s chance to win, 43% to 31%▼12%USC’s chance to win, 43% to 31%J.Maiava pass intercepted by C.Skanes at WIS38 C.Skanes return 27 yards to the USC35 (J.Maiava)▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q3, 8:17 · Wisconsin down 10Colton Joseph runs 3 yards for a touchdownWisconsin at UCLA, week 7Q3, 8:17 · Wisconsin 7, UCLA 10Wisconsin got on the board with 8:17 left in the third quarterWisconsin got on the board with 8:17 left in the third quarterC.Joseph rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCLA00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
How scary each game got
Wisconsin lost at Notre Dame after being 65% to win; the closest win was at Penn State, down to 3%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Wisconsin during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Wisconsin
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · WisconsinCooper Catalano leads Wisconsin with 76 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+16 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Wisconsin fields a limited explosive, big-play offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Wisconsin reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 2%) and EPA allowed (top 9%); the crux lives in success rate, where Wisconsin sits at the 17th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Wisconsin is worth +5.5 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 74th percentile of 133 programs
66% at home, 41% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (35-18 home, 16-23 away). Interval ±4.7.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Wisconsin has beaten the number by −1.4 more at home than away over 95 games. That is inside the ±7.3 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Camp Randall Stadium seats 80,321 and has averaged 91% full (73,324, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 308 miles to get here since 2018 — 38th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 20% of the 2026 roster (21 of 105 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogVinny Anthony produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Deep threatLance Mason is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Abu Sama III and Darrion Dupree split the carries (55/108 vs 53/108) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Abu Sama III produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Tyrell Henry (WR) and Jacob Harris (TE) split the targets (48/72 vs 24/72) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Wisconsin actually scores
22nd percentile quality, 84th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Wisconsin’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 77th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 78th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Wisconsin hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
25th percentile success on standard downs, 22nd on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Wisconsin by half
1st-half offense ranks 35th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 57th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Wisconsin’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.08; 37th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.21 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Wisconsin’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Wisconsin’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (61.9% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 176-play sample) — mid-pack, 7 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Wisconsin’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.2% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 204-play sample) — mid-pack, 66 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 25% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~48% league rate.
2 of 8 forced fumbles recovered; 4 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 15% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
7 interceptions of 46 disrupted passes (39 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 53 penalties committed vs. 34 drawn on opponents, a 176-yard deficit.
464 penalty yards committed vs. 288 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Wisconsin
Most similar programs · WisconsinReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Wisconsin’s slide has precedent — and 2 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 44°, between 31° and 55° in about 7 in 10 games (34 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 55°, and 8 in 10 ran between 31° and 70° (46 of 47 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.