CFB Zeitgeist Score
63
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 94th percentile.
Colton Joseph
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
2,619 PASS YDS · 21 PASS TD · 1,011 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Wisconsin
2025Old Dominion
2026Wisconsin
QB · OLD DOMINION · SUN BELT
Colton Joseph
- 2
- #1
- 6-2 | 200 lb
- Newport Beach, CA
Heisman Heat
#2053
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Old Dominion
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8306 | No. 1857 recruit | HighSchool | Old Dominion |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Old Dominion -> Wisconsin | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 2619 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (1011).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Old Dominion
Composite
0.8306
#1857 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Colton Joseph
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
53
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=18
- Rivals · n=6
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Colton Joseph
Obsession score 4
Rival mentions 6
Weeks on radar 3
Peak moment Week 0 · 3 mentions
Grudging respect 0% Neutral 67% Mockery 33%
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 12g
2,619Pass yards
21Pass TDs
10INT
Per game
218.2Pass yards
2Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,837Pass yards
23Pass TDs
11INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 2,619): needs 381/game over remaining 1.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 2,619): needs 1,381/game over remaining 1.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 21): needs 4/game over remaining 1.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 21): needs 9/game over remaining 1.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 21): needs 14/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Colton Joseph's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Old Dominion, he has 2,619 passing yards and 21 touchdown passes, but he also adds 1,011 rushing yards and 13 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-volume passer | Vertical threat | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
173 76th
ATT
288 79th
CMP%
60.1% 46th
Y/A
9.1 87th
Passing Production
YDS
2,619 86th
TD
21 91st
INT
10 8th
Rushing
CAR
157 96th
YDS
1,011 99th
YPC
6.4 89th
TD
13 98th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 14-27@ Indiana | 11/22 | 96 | 0 | 3 | 4.4 | 62.0 | 3 INTs — rough day |
| Wk 2 | W 54-6vs North Carolina Central | 19/24 | 257 | 3 | 0 | 10.7 | 63.5 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | W 45-26@ Virginia Tech | 16/22 | 276 | 2 | 0 | 12.5 | 96.1 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 5 | W 21-7vs Liberty | 18/26 | 271 | 3 | 1 | 10.4 | 66.2 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 6 | W 47-7vs Coastal Carolina | 17/30 | 315 | 4 | 0 | 10.5 | 94.8 | Season-high 315 yds |
| Wk 7 | L 24-48@ Marshall | 15/28 | 266 | 1 | 2 | 9.5 | 38.8 | |
| Wk 8 | L 27-63@ James Madison | 13/21 | 209 | 3 | 2 | 10.0 | 87.7 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 9 | W 24-21vs App State | 21/33 | 305 | 3 | 1 | 9.2 | 58.6 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 10 | W 31-6@ UL Monroe | 12/22 | 231 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 | 62.0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 33-0vs Troy | 10/20 | 147 | 1 | 0 | 7.4 | 79.6 | |
| Wk 13 | W 45-10@ Georgia Southern | 12/18 | 140 | 1 | 0 | 7.8 | 87.1 | |
| Wk 14 | W 27-10vs Georgia State | 9/22 | 106 | 0 | 1 | 4.8 | -- | |
| Total | 173/288 | 2619 | 21 | 10 | 9.0 | 72.4 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Old Dominion10-3HC: Ricky Rahne · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Old Dominion | 173 | 288 | 60.1% | 2,619 | 9.1 | 21 | 10 | 153.6 | -- | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 173 | 288 | 60.1% | 2,619 | 9.1 | 21 | 10 | 153.6 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Old Dominion | 157 | 1,011 | 6.4 | 13 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 157 | 1,011 | 6.4 | 13 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 2,619 | #56/382 | 86th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 21 | #39/407 | 91st pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 173 | #94/383 | 76th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 60.1% | #207/383 | 46th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 9.1 | #49/382 | 87th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 1,011 | #4/408 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.45 | #12/200 | 94th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 290 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 52.0% | #61/428 | 86th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 288 | #88/407 | 79th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 10 | #377/407 | 8th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 157 | #16/408 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 78 | #3/391 | 99th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 13 | #10/408 | 98th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 6.4 | #47/407 | 89th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 93.3% | #40/428 | 91st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 62.8% | #86/428 | 80th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 62.7% | #94/428 | 78th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 52.6% | #61/428 | 86th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 48.1% | #46/428 | 89th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 46.8% | #52/428 | 88th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 26.2% | #29/428 | 93rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.30 | #40/140 | 72nd pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 130 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 4 | #237/258 | 9th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 234 | 2.3 | 8.8 | 0.5 |
| Road6g | 203 | 1.2 | 9.1 | 1.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 228 | 1.9 | 9.3 | 0.3 |
| Losses3g | 190 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 2.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 247 | 2.2 | 9.7 | 1.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 190 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
63Solid starter
Elite: rush yards (98th). Strength: rush tds (94th). Concern: fumbles lost (8th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds43%of completions
44 comp4.8 yds avg3 TD
Middle
10–19 yds35%of completions
36 comp14.0 yds avg4 TD
Deep
20+ yds22%of completions
22 comp36.1 yds avg5 TD
Overall 61.4% completion on 166 attempts · 22 deep completions averaging 36.1 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Elite: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.45Elite (≥p90) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.3Mid (p50–p75) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Colton JosephOld DominionJake RetzlaffTulane· 85% simAlonza BarnettJames Madison· 83% simMarcel ReedTexas A&M· 83% sim
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Yards / att
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Completion %
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Dual Threat
Dangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Dequan Finn’s 2023 season.
Dequan Finn
65%match
All-MAC
#2
Blake Horvath
All-AAC
60%
#3
Marcel Reed
59%
#4
Max Duggan
NFL Rd 7
59%
#5
Payton Thorne
56%
Matches Dequan on
Yards / attempt
INT rate
Differs from Dequan on
Class year (lower)
Completion % (lower)
Rush yards / carry (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Dequan Finn’s path through Miami (OH).
Dequan Finn
90%match
All-MAC
#2
Carlos Davis
89%
#3
Walker Eget
85%
#4
Michael Collins
84%
#5
Timmy McClain
82%
Matches Dequan on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Malik Willis's sophomore season at Liberty (2021).
Malik Willis
59%match
#2
Jake Retzlaff
57%
#3
Max Duggan
Davey O'BrienUnitas Golden ArmAll-Big 12NFL Rd 7
56%
#4
Malik Cunningham
54%
#5
Zeon Chriss
55%
Matches Malik on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Height
Differs from Malik on
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Weight (lower)
Rush yards / carry (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ricky Rahne
Pass share
38.0%
330 pass / 539 run
Plays / game
66.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.4%
267 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Ricky Rahne
Old Dominion
Played his entire career under Ricky Rahne.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownNewport Beach, CA
Height6'2"
Weight200 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamOld Dominion
ConferenceSun Belt
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Sun Belt
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Sun Belt | all_conference | Old Dominion | Sun Belt | QB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Old Dominion | QB2 | #2053 | #2405 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2023 | Old Dominion | QB2 | #2350 | #2416 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Sun Belt |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Old Dominion | Sun Belt | QB | 2 | No. 1 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Newport Beach, CA |
| 2024 | Old Dominion | Sun Belt | QB | 2 | No. 1 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Newport Beach, CA |
| 2023 | Old Dominion | Sun Belt | QB | 2 | No. 1 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Newport Beach, CA |