CFB Zeitgeist Score
50
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 86th percentile.
Nicco Marchiol
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
720 PASS YDS · 2 PASS TD · 57 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Northwestern
2025West Virginia
2026Northwestern
QB · WEST VIRGINIA · BIG 12
Nicco Marchiol
- 3
- #8
- 6-2 | 235 lb
- Chandler, AZ
Heisman Heat
#1116
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2022–2025+1080%
Up 1080% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
West Virginia
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4-star | 0.9025 | No. 289 recruit | HighSchool | West Virginia |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | West Virginia -> Northwestern | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to West Virginia
Composite
0.9025
#289 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Nicco Marchiol
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Nicco Marchiol
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Third-down snap share
65%
rate
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 1
National rank #42 of 93
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 1 55th
Why it matters
#42 of 93 P4 + Notre Dame QBs in 3rd-down snap share — on the field for 65% of third-down plays.
Vs cohort
This player 65% (55th)
MODERATE cohort 93
- Also strong
- ESPN QBR (season average)#83 / 92
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 4g
720Pass yards
2Pass TDs
2INT
Per game
180Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
2,340Pass yards
6Pass TDs
6INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 720): needs 253.3/game over remaining 9.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 720): needs 364.4/game over remaining 9.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 2.6/game over remaining 9.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 3.1/game over remaining 9.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 3.7/game over remaining 9.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Nicco Marchiol's story is about how role and output meet each other. For West Virginia, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Efficient against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
66 58th
ATT
98 60th
CMP%
67.3% 77th
Y/A
7.3 62nd
Passing Production
YDS
720 59th
TD
2 52nd
INT
2 52nd
Rushing
CAR
40 62nd
YDS
57 56th
YPC
1.4 31st
TD
1 63rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 4 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 45-3vs Robert Morris | 17/20 | 224 | 1 | 0 | 11.2 | 62.1 | Season-high 224 yds |
| Wk 2 | L 10-17@ Ohio | 15/26 | 178 | 0 | 1 | 6.8 | 27.4 | |
| Wk 3 | W 31-24vs Pittsburgh | 19/25 | 192 | 1 | 0 | 7.7 | 57.4 | |
| Wk 4 | L 10-41@ Kansas | 15/27 | 126 | 0 | 1 | 4.7 | 23.2 | |
| Total | 66/98 | 720 | 2 | 2 | 7.6 | 42.5 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022West Virginia5-7HC: Neal Brown · Balanced
2023West Virginia9-4HC: Neal Brown · Run-heavy
2025West Virginia4-8HC: Rich Rodriguez · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | West Virginia | 66 | 98 | 67.3% | 720 | 7.3 | 2 | 2 | 131.7 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | West Virginia | 30 | 53 | 56.6% | 247 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 96.9 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | West Virginia | 4 | 13 | 30.8% | 61 | 4.7 | 1 | 0 | 95.6 | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 100 | 164 | 61.0% | 1,028 | 6.3 | 5 | 5 | 117.6 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | West Virginia | 40 | 57 | 1.4 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | West Virginia | 38 | 133 | 3.5 | 1 | -- |
| 2022 | West Virginia | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 84 | 222 | 2.6 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 720 | #158/382 | 59th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 2 | #198/407 | 52nd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 66 | #160/383 | 58th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 67.3% | #90/383 | 77th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 7.3 | #145/382 | 62nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 57 | #180/408 | 56th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.20 | #146/200 | 28th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 85 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 46.3% | #109/428 | 75th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 98 | #164/407 | 60th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 2 | #195/407 | 52nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 40 | #154/408 | 62nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 12 | #261/391 | 34th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 1.4 | #283/407 | 31st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #151/408 | 63rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 83.7% | #102/428 | 76th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 73.8% | #20/428 | 96th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 64.9% | #69/428 | 84th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 53.6% | #55/428 | 87th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 35.0% | #139/428 | 68th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 32.8% | #150/428 | 65th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 18.3% | #76/428 | 82nd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/258 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 4 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 208 | 1.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | 152 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 1.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 208 | 1.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 |
| Losses2g | 152 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 180 | 0.5 | 7.6 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
50Mid-pack
Elite: interceptions (92nd). Strength: fumbles lost (91st). Concern: pass tds (3rd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds51%of completions
31 comp5.5 yds avg
Middle
10–19 yds33%of completions
20 comp12.9 yds avg
Deep
20+ yds16%of completions
10 comp28.5 yds avg1 TD
Overall 65.6% completion on 93 attempts · 10 deep completions averaging 28.5 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.2Below (<p25) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Nicco MarchiolWest VirginiaCade KlubnikClemson· 63% simNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 60% simDrake LindseyMinnesota· 60% sim
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Completion %
Yards / att
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Pass yards
Pass TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Game Manager
Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Billy Edwards’s 2024 season.
Billy Edwards
62%match
#2
Hank Bachmeier
62%
#3
Mark Gronowski
60%
#4
Katin Houser
60%
#5
Jackson Arnold
59%
Matches Billy on
Height
Differs from Billy on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Rush usage (higher)
Total pass EPA (college ability) (lower)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Taylor Powell’s path through Eastern Michigan.
Taylor Powell
98%match
#2
Maverick McIvor
93%
#3
Tommy DeVito
88%
#4
Jarret Doege
85%
#5
Desmond Trotter
85%
Matches Taylor on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Hank Bachmeier's senior season at Louisiana Tech (2023).
Hank Bachmeier
53%match
#2
John Mateer
50%
#3
Tanner Mordecai
All-AAC
49%
#4
Maverick McIvor
46%
#5
Tayven Jackson
44%
Differs from Hank on
Class year (lower)
Rush usage (higher)
Weight (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Rich Rodriguez
Pass share
38.7%
327 pass / 517 run
Plays / game
70.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
10.7%
272 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Neal Brown
West Virginia
2023
Neal Brown
West Virginia
2025era →
Rich Rodriguez
West Virginia
Coaching transition mid-career: Neal Brown → Rich Rodriguez. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownChandler, AZ
Height6'2"
Weight235 lb
Class3
PositionQB
Jersey8
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamWest Virginia
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | West Virginia | QB3 | #1116 | #1175 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2023 | West Virginia | QB3 | #730 | #662 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2022 | West Virginia | QB3 | #1097 | #1117 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big 12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | West Virginia | Big 12 | QB | 3 | No. 8 | 6-2 | 235 lb | Chandler, AZ |
| 2024 | West Virginia | Big 12 | QB | 3 | No. 8 | 6-2 | 235 lb | Chandler, AZ |
| 2023 | West Virginia | Big 12 | QB | 3 | No. 8 | 6-2 | 235 lb | Chandler, AZ |
| 2022 | West Virginia | Big 12 | QB | 3 | No. 8 | 6-2 | 235 lb | Chandler, AZ |