The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Rich Rodriguez

Rich Rodriguez held Jacksonville State at Regional Program III for 2 seasons.

Peak, then fade
140–100
2001–2024 · 4 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

The first half we played pretty well. The second half, we stunk
The penalties, we gave up long drives, lost contain, the offense wasn’t moving the ball, so we’ve got a lot to work on. I’m proud of the guys, and the way they came out, but the second half was embarrassing. We’ll get that fixed.
Heartland College Sportsthe day of the 31–24 opener
The first half, we played and executed like we’re capable of. We’ll learn from this and get better.
Heartland College Sportsthe day of the 31–24 opener
I don’t think it changes your recruiting model
Heartland College Sports
I stood by Pat’s side the whole time so he wouldn’t write a check for them
Heartland College Sports

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 4th career season — faster than 37% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #215 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

West Virginia, 9 seasons (active)
+9.3
National Program I → National Program II.
Michigan, 3 seasons
−12.0
Power Program I → Power Program II.
Arizona, 6 seasons
−0.6
National Program II → National Program II.
Jacksonville State, 2 seasons
+0.0
Regional Program III → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

20%30%40%50%West Virginia2001–2026▼ 19.6ptArizona2012–2017▼ 17.0ptJacksonville State2023–2024▼ 2.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Arizona17.0pt#28 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

11–14 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Jim Mora.

Rivalry record
11–14
44.0% · 6 rivals
One-score games
44–37
54.3% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
2–9
18.2%
Buyout owed
$7,645,833 (est.)
bigger than 48% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Pittsburgh5–362%
Notre Dame2–167%
Ohio State0–30%
Marshall2–0100%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Jim Mora0–5
5 meetings, 2012–2016
’12 L’13 L’14 L · blew a 7-pt lead’15 L · blew a 7-pt lead’16 L · blew a 7-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
2–9 18.2%
Power Program
20–37 35.1%
National Program
33–33 50.0%
Regional Program
66–17 79.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.55
#16 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.32
#297 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2023–2024
Jacksonville Statecaretaker🏆 coach of the year
Regional Program III
Rich Rodriguez held Jacksonville State at Regional Program III for 2 seasons.

2nd-best Jacksonville State tenure of 2 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+25.1 pts
#21 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+38.8 pts
#2 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Charles Kelly (2025–2026).

Season20232024Trend
Record & result
Record9–49–5
PostseasonW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#134#128
Style — pass rate
Pass rate35.132.7
Coordinators
OCRod SmithRod Smith
DCZac AlleyLuke Olson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense1994
Defense9449
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%22.125.3
Red-zone pass%26.516.3
4th-down go%opp. territory36.436.4
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
21
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
14
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+7
#118 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′0″, 200 lbs
across 10 of 21 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-4.9 lbs
#254 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#21 of 255 · more than most
Top states: GA (4), FL (2), SC (1), TX (1), AL (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
47.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
41.3
position-weighted
Net
+5.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Griffin Brewster (QB) from Kent State
Biggest loss: Earl Woods III (QB) to Kennesaw State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Zac Alley → Luke Olson · 2024
94th pct49th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
205 lbs
6′2″ avg · #606 of 767 · less than most
Running back
189 lbs
5′10″ avg · #782 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
185 lbs
6′0″ avg · #706 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
241 lbs
6′4″ avg · #523 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Linebacker
223 lbs
6′2″ avg · #640 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
187 lbs
6′1″ avg · #531 of 771 · a typical amount
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tackle via the portal
67%
#21 of 223 stints
Buys Wide receiver via the portal
62%
#45 of 243 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Grows D-line from high school
100%
#214 of 239 stints
Postseason detail2023: Beat Louisiana 34–31 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2024: Lost to Ohio 27–30 StaffDNA Cure Bowl

Coach of the Year: Conference USA Coach of the Year (2024)

18–9
2012–2017
Arizonacaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Rich Rodriguez held Arizona at National Program II for 6 seasons.

7th-best Arizona tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+14.0 pts
#52 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-40.6 pts
#204 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Stoops (2004–2011) · succeeded by Kevin Sumlin (2018–2020).

Season201220132014201520162017Trend
Record & result
Record8–58–510–47–63–97–6
PostseasonCFP lossW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#31#43#48#45
Style — pass rate
Pass rate49.547.037.532.5
Coordinators
OCCalvin Magee / Rod SmithCalvin Magee / Rod SmithCalvin Magee / Rod SmithCalvin Magee / Rod Smith
DCJeff CasteelJeff CasteelMarcel YatesMarcel Yates
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense53763495
Defense56151411
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%42.342.131.525.6
Red-zone pass%45.940.823.020.2
4th-down go%opp. territory33.336.056.021.6
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Jeff Casteel → Marcel Yates · 2016the defense slipped
36th pct13th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Boise State 30–38 CFP2015: Beat New Mexico 45–37 Gildan New Mexico Bowl2017: Lost to Purdue 35–38 Foster Farms Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Nick Foles (2012), Juron Criner (2012), Trevin Wade (2012), Ka'Deem Carey (2014), Shaquille Richardson (2014), Marquis Flowers (2014), Will Parks (2016), Scooby Wright III (2016) + 1 more

43–35
2008–2010
Michiganinheritor
Blue Blood → Power Program I
Rich Rodriguez inherited a Blue Blood Michigan and won with it.

10th-best Michigan tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Lloyd Carr (1995–2007) · succeeded by Brady Hoke (2011–2014).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Safety from high school
100%
#201 of 218 stints

13 NFL Draft picks: Jake Long (2008), Chad Henne (2008), Shawn Crable (2008), Mario Manningham (2008), Mike Hart (2008), Adrian Arrington (2008), Terrance Taylor (2009), Morgan Trent (2009) + 5 more

15–22
2001–now
West Virginiacaretaker
National Program I → Power Program I
Rich Rodriguez moved West Virginia from National Program I to Power Program I in 9 seasons.

1st-best West Virginia tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-5.4 pts
#133 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-4.2 pts
#123 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Don Nehlen (1980–2000).

Season20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record3–89–48–58–411–111–210–29–49–49–410–37–64–87–68–510–37–68–45–76–46–75–79–40–14–80–0
PostseasonL bowlW bowlL bowlL bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#39#35#39#57#35#48#37#40#35#48#46#43#25
Style — pass rate
Pass rate48.740.841.651.151.157.652.849.748.937.041.738.518.8
Coordinators
OCShannon DawsonJake SpavitalJake SpavitalChad Scott / Matt MooreChad Scott / Gerad ParkerChad Scott / Gerad ParkerGraham HarrellChad ScottChad Scott
DCTony GibsonTony GibsonTony GibsonTony GibsonTony GibsonVic KoenningJordan Lesley / Jahmile Addae / Jeff KoonzJordan Lesley / ShaDon BrownJordan Lesley / ShaDon BrownJordan Lesley / ShaDon BrownShaDon Brown / Jordan Lesley (5th season; first 8 games) / Jeff Koonz (interim; after week 9)Zac AlleyZac Alley
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense50596158821032375283581016
Defense7785704229528062473534713
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%44.635.535.950.049.656.056.149.152.038.736.028.011.6
Red-zone pass%38.832.035.350.041.649.457.649.645.431.735.320.55.3
4th-down go%opp. territory23.724.428.635.135.930.836.140.846.254.161.257.6
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
125
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
196
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-71
#37 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 230 lbs
across 106 of 125 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.1 lbs
#117 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#86 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: GA (13), TX (12), WV (8), FL (8), PA (6)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
59.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
62.3
position-weighted
Net
-3.3
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: JT Daniels (QB) from Georgia
Biggest loss: JT Daniels (QB) to Rice
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Chad Scott / Matt Moore → co-Chad Scott / Gerad Parker · 2020
10th pct32nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 56.0% → 56.1% (+0.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 88% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Chad Scott / Gerad Parker → Graham Harrell · 2022
37th pct52nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 49.1% → 52.0% (+2.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 19% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Graham Harrell → Chad Scott · 2023
52nd pct83rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 52.0% → 38.7% (-13.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 35% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Vic Koenning → Jordan Lesley / co-Jahmile Addae / co-Jeff Koonz · 2020
52nd pct80th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Jordan Lesley / co-Jahmile Addae / co-Jeff Koonz → Jordan Lesley / co-ShaDon Brown · 2021
80th pct62nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
214 lbs
6′1″ avg · #359 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
212 lbs
5′11″ avg · #215 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
195 lbs
6′0″ avg · #296 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
248 lbs
6′5″ avg · #264 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
308 lbs
6′5″ avg · #446 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
284 lbs
6′3″ avg · #384 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
226 lbs
6′1″ avg · #478 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
187 lbs
6′0″ avg · #544 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
199 lbs
6′0″ avg · #130 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Safety from high school
77%
#174 of 218 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
83%
#180 of 223 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Texas A&M 37–45 Autozone Liberty Bowl2015: Beat Arizona State 43–42 Motel 6 Cactus Bowl2016: Lost to Miami 14–31 Russell Athletic Bowl2017: Lost to Utah 14–30 Zaxby's Heart Of Dallas Bowl2018: Lost to Syracuse 18–34 Camping World Bowl2020: Beat Army 24–21 AutoZone Liberty Bowl2021: Lost to Minnesota 6–18 Guaranteed Rate Bowl2023: Beat North Carolina 30–10 Duke's Mayo Bowl2024: Lost to Memphis 37–42 Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl

49 NFL Draft picks: Lance Nimmo (2003), James Davis (2003), Quincy Wilson (2004), Adam Jones (2005), Chris Henry (2005), Rasheed Marshall (2005), Alton McCann (2006), Steve Slaton (2008) + 41 more

3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Darius Stills (2020), Wyatt Milum (2024), Cam Cook (2026)

64–34
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.