The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jimbo Fisher

Followed Kevin Sumlin. Jimbo Fisher moved Texas A&M from Power Program III to Power Program II in 6 seasons.

Peak, then fade
128–48
2010–2023 · 2 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Blue Blood in his 1st career season — faster than 59% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #1 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Florida State, 8 seasons
+12.1
Blue Blood → Blue Blood.
Texas A&M, 6 seasons
+4.5
Power Program II → Power Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Florida State2010–2017▼ 10.7ptTexas A&M2018–2023▲ 3.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Florida State10.7pt#119 of 258 · a typical amount
Texas A&M7.0pt#194 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

15–2 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Nick Saban.

Rivalry record
15–2
88.2% · 3 rivals
One-score games
29–18
61.7% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–3
25.0%
Rivalry ledger
Miami7–0100%
Florida5–183%
LSU3–175%
The toughest matchup
vs. Nick Saban1–4
5 meetings, 2018–2022
’18 L’19 L · blew a 7-pt lead’20 L’21 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’22 L
20% win rate across a real, 5-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
1–3 25.0%
Blue Blood
9–8 52.9%
Power Program
31–14 68.9%
National Program
37–10 78.7%
Regional Program
21–0 100.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.03
#135 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.32
#33 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2018–2023
Texas A&Mcaretaker
Power Program III → Power Program II
Jimbo Fisher moved Texas A&M from Power Program III to Power Program II in 6 seasons.

4th-best Texas A&M tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-8.3 pts
#146 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+11.3 pts
#63 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Kevin Sumlin (2012–2017) · succeeded by Mike Elko (2024–2026).

Season201820192020202120222023Trend
Record & result
Record9–48–59–18–45–71–2
PostseasonW CFPW bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#17#4#6#7#1#15
Style — pass rate
Pass rate45.051.344.647.051.648.3
Coordinators
OCDarrell DickeyDarrell DickeyDarrell DickeyDarrell DickeyDarrell Dickey / James ColeyBobby Petrino / James Coley
DCMike ElkoMike ElkoMike ElkoMike ElkoD. J. Durkin / Tyler SantucciD. J. Durkin / Elijah Robinson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense904481434156
Defense617281977877
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%40.946.340.745.143.846.9
Red-zone pass%39.648.737.443.044.641.6
4th-down go%opp. territory14.012.932.010.720.625.5
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
16
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
64
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-48
#165 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 241 lbs
across 11 of 16 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+12.7 lbs
#2 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (2), GA (1), FL (1), NC (1), OH (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
65.5
position-weighted
Net
-12.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Max Johnson (QB) from LSU
Biggest loss: Eli Stowers (QB) to New Mexico State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Darrell Dickey → Darrell Dickey / co-James Coley · 2022
43rd pct41st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 45.1% → 43.8% (-1.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 48% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Mike Elko → D. J. Durkin / co-Tyler Santucci · 2022
97th pct78th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
217 lbs
6′3″ avg · #251 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
208 lbs
5′11″ avg · #366 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
195 lbs
6′1″ avg · #304 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
256 lbs
6′5″ avg · #62 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
320 lbs
6′5″ avg · #52 of 779 · more than most
D-line
291 lbs
6′4″ avg · #237 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
232 lbs
6′2″ avg · #218 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
197 lbs
6′1″ avg · #71 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Running back from high school
73%
#161 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2018: Beat NC State 52–13 CFP2019: Beat Oklahoma State 24–21 Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl2020: Beat North Carolina 41–27 Capital One Orange Bowl2023: Lost to Oklahoma State 23–31 TaxAct Texas Bowl

27 NFL Draft picks: Christian Kirk (2018), Armani Watts (2018), Damion Ratley (2018), Erik McCoy (2019), Jace Sternberger (2019), Kingsley Keke (2019), Daylon Mack (2019), Trayveon Williams (2019) + 19 more

4 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Kenyon Green (2020), Kenyon Green (2021), DeMarvin Leal (2021), Edgerrin Cooper (2023)

45–25
2010–2017
Florida Statetransformerborderline
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Jimbo Fisher took Florida State from Blue Blood to Blue Blood.

2nd-best Florida State tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+1.8 pts
#103 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+12.2 pts
#61 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Bobby Bowden (1976–2009) · succeeded by Willie Taggart (2018–2019).

Season20102011201220132014201520162017Trend
Record & result
Record10–49–412–214–013–110–310–32–0
PostseasonL bowlCFP lossW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#4#3#3#6
Style — pass rate
Pass rate53.449.644.842.7
Coordinators
OCRandy Sanders / Lawrence DawseyRandy Sanders / Lawrence DawseyRandy Sanders / Lawrence DawseyRandy Sanders / Lawrence Dawsey
DCCharles KellyCharles KellyCharles KellyCharles Kelly
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense88668664
Defense45699084
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%51.045.143.339.8
Red-zone pass%34.640.033.939.3
4th-down go%opp. territory10.517.59.417.1
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Oregon 20–59 Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual - Semifinal2015: Lost to Houston 24–38 CFP2016: Beat Michigan 33–32 Capital One Orange Bowl2017: Beat Southern Miss 42–13 Walk-On's Independence Bowl

51 NFL Draft picks: Patrick Robinson (2010), Myron Rolle (2010), Dekoda Watson (2010), Christian Ponder (2011), Rodney Hudson (2011), Markus White (2011), Nigel Bradham (2012), Zebrie Sanders (2012) + 43 more

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