The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

Who gets poached

Every active FBS head coach, with the chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator job: a move he chooses. Being pushed out is the hot seat’s number, shown beside it.

After week 10 of the 2026 season · updated nightly

The hottest names on the market right now: Jason Eck (New Mexico) 46%, Spencer Danielson (Boise State) 44% and Lance Taylor (Western Michigan) 41%. The coordinator most likely to move up: Kevin Decker (Memphis OC) 42%.

Pushed or pulled

Right now no head coach is at 10% or more on both numbers: the coaches other schools want are not the ones in trouble at home.

Wanted elsewhereWanted, and on the hot seatSettledOn the hot seatJason EckSpencer DanielsonLance TaylorTim PolasekJamey ChadwellBryant VincentJoe MoorheadScotty WaldenSafe at homePushed out →StayingHired away →Jason Eck, New MexicoPoach watch 46% · Hot seat <1%Spencer Danielson, Boise StatePoach watch 44% · Hot seat <1%Lance Taylor, Western MichiganPoach watch 41% · Hot seat 2%Tim Polasek, North Dakota StatePoach watch 38% · Hot seat <1%Jamey Chadwell, LibertyPoach watch 36% · Hot seat <1%Bryant Vincent, UL MonroePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 53%Joe Moorhead, AkronPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 52%Scotty Walden, UTEPPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 52%Alex Golesh, AuburnPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 1%Alex Mortensen, UABPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 3%Alonzo Carter, Sacramento StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 5%Barry Odom, PurduePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 12%Billy Napier, James MadisonPoach watch 12% · Hot seat <1%Bill Belichick, North CarolinaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 17%Bill O'Brien, Boston CollegePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 12%Blake Anderson, Southern MissPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 12%Blake Harrell, East CarolinaPoach watch 12% · Hot seat 5%Bob Chesney, UCLAPoach watch 6% · Hot seat <1%Brent Brennan, ArizonaPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 1%Brent Key, Georgia TechPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 38%Brent Venables, OklahomaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 9.5%Bret Bielema, IllinoisPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Brian Hartline, South FloridaPoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Brian Newberry, NavyPoach watch 9.5% · Hot seat 9.7%Bronco Mendenhall, Utah StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 3%Butch Jones, Arkansas StatePoach watch 4% · Hot seat 10%Casey Woods, Missouri StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Charles Huff, MemphisPoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Charles Kelly, Jacksonville StatePoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Chris Creighton, Eastern MichiganPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 39%Chuck Martin, Miami (OH)Poach watch 4% · Hot seat 25%Clark Lea, VanderbiltPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 20%Clay Helton, Georgia SouthernPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 4%Collin Klein, Kansas StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Curt Cignetti, IndianaPoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Dabo Swinney, ClemsonPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 5%Dan Lanning, OregonPoach watch 6% · Hot seat 1%Dan Mullen, UNLVPoach watch 12% · Hot seat 1%David Braun, NorthwesternPoach watch 9% · Hot seat 2%Deion Sanders, ColoradoPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 8%Dell McGee, Georgia StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 29%Derek Mason, Middle TennesseePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 16%Dowell Loggains, App StatePoach watch 4% · Hot seat 8%Eddie George, Bowling GreenPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 24%Eli Drinkwitz, MissouriPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 4%Eric Morris, Oklahoma StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 1%Fran Brown, SyracusePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 6%Gerad Parker, TroyPoach watch 6% · Hot seat 20%G.J. Kinne, Texas StatePoach watch 15% · Hot seat 1%Greg Schiano, RutgersPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 27%Jake Dickert, Wake ForestPoach watch 15% · Hot seat <1%JaMarcus Shephard, Oregon StatePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%James Franklin, Virginia TechPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Jason Candle, UConnPoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%Jay Sawvel, WyomingPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 6%Jedd Fisch, WashingtonPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 2%Jeff Brohm, LouisvillePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Jeff Choate, NevadaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 27%Jeff Lebby, Mississippi StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 23%Jeff Monken, ArmyPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 5%Jeff Traylor, UTSAPoach watch 6% · Hot seat <1%Jerry Mack, Kennesaw StatePoach watch 7% · Hot seat 10%Jimmy Rogers, Iowa StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Jim Mora, Colorado StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 1%Joey McGuire, Texas TechPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 1%Joe Harasymiak, MassachusettsPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 8%John Hauser, OhioPoach watch 11% · Hot seat <1%Jon Sumrall, FloridaPoach watch 2% · Hot seat <1%Josh Heupel, TennesseePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Kalani Sitake, BYUPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 2%Kalen DeBoer, AlabamaPoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%K.C. Keeler, TemplePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 13%Kenny Dillingham, Arizona StatePoach watch 4% · Hot seat 4%Ken Niumatalolo, San José StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 12%Kirby Moore, Washington StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 5%Kirby Smart, GeorgiaPoach watch 3% · Hot seat <1%Kirk Ferentz, IowaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 7%Kyle Whittingham, MichiganPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 1%Lance Leipold, KansasPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 14%Lane Kiffin, LSUPoach watch 3% · Hot seat <1%Lincoln Riley, USCPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Luke Fickell, WisconsinPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 3%Major Applewhite, South AlabamaPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 14%Manny Diaz, DukePoach watch 9% · Hot seat 1%Marcus Freeman, Notre DamePoach watch 12% · Hot seat <1%Mario Cristobal, MiamiPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Mark Carney, Kent StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 25%Matt Campbell, Penn StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Matt Drinkall, Central MichiganPoach watch 6% · Hot seat 5%Matt Entz, Fresno StatePoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Matt Rhule, NebraskaPoach watch 13% · Hot seat 1%Michael Desormeaux, LouisianaPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 5%Mike Elko, Texas A&MPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 7%Mike Jacobs, ToledoPoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Mike Uremovich, Ball StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 24%Morgan Scalley, UtahPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Neal Brown, North TexasPoach watch 12% · Hot seat <1%Pat Fitzgerald, Michigan StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 5%Pat Narduzzi, PittsburghPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 5%Pete Golding, Ole MissPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Pete Lembo, BuffaloPoach watch 15% · Hot seat 2%P.J. Fleck, MinnesotaPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 8%Rhett Lashlee, SMUPoach watch 11% · Hot seat 3%Rich Rodriguez, West VirginiaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 18%Ricky Rahne, Old DominionPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 49%Ryan Beard, Coastal CarolinaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Ryan Carty, DelawarePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 2%Ryan Day, Ohio StatePoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Ryan Silverfield, ArkansasPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 3%Scott Abell, RicePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 22%Scott Frost, UCFPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 5%Scott Satterfield, CincinnatiPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 9%Sean Lewis, San Diego StatePoach watch 5% · Hot seat 20%Shane Beamer, South CarolinaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 4%Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana TechPoach watch 29% · Hot seat 6%Sonny Dykes, TCUPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 6%Steve Sarkisian, TexasPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Tavita Pritchard, StanfordPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 2%Timmy Chang, Hawai'iPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 34%Tim Albin, CharlottePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 48%Tony Elliott, VirginiaPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 14%Tony Gibson, MarshallPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 1%Tony Sanchez, New Mexico StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 19%Tosh Lupoi, CaliforniaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 2%Tre Lamb, TulsaPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 6%Troy Calhoun, Air ForcePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 17%Tyson Helton, Western KentuckyPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 24%Willie Fritz, HoustonPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 3%Willie Simmons, Florida InternationalPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 10%Will Hall, TulanePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 1%Will Stein, KentuckyPoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%Zach Kittley, Florida AtlanticPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 2%
Wanted elsewhereWanted, and on the hot seatSettledOn the hot seatEckDanielsonTaylorVincentMoorheadSafe at homePushed out →StayingHired away →Jason Eck, New MexicoPoach watch 46% · Hot seat <1%Spencer Danielson, Boise StatePoach watch 44% · Hot seat <1%Lance Taylor, Western MichiganPoach watch 41% · Hot seat 2%Bryant Vincent, UL MonroePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 53%Joe Moorhead, AkronPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 52%Alex Golesh, AuburnPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 1%Alex Mortensen, UABPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 3%Alonzo Carter, Sacramento StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 5%Barry Odom, PurduePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 12%Billy Napier, James MadisonPoach watch 12% · Hot seat <1%Bill Belichick, North CarolinaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 17%Bill O'Brien, Boston CollegePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 12%Blake Anderson, Southern MissPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 12%Blake Harrell, East CarolinaPoach watch 12% · Hot seat 5%Bob Chesney, UCLAPoach watch 6% · Hot seat <1%Brent Brennan, ArizonaPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 1%Brent Key, Georgia TechPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 38%Brent Venables, OklahomaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 9.5%Bret Bielema, IllinoisPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Brian Hartline, South FloridaPoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Brian Newberry, NavyPoach watch 9.5% · Hot seat 9.7%Bronco Mendenhall, Utah StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 3%Butch Jones, Arkansas StatePoach watch 4% · Hot seat 10%Casey Woods, Missouri StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Charles Huff, MemphisPoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Charles Kelly, Jacksonville StatePoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Chris Creighton, Eastern MichiganPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 39%Chuck Martin, Miami (OH)Poach watch 4% · Hot seat 25%Clark Lea, VanderbiltPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 20%Clay Helton, Georgia SouthernPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 4%Collin Klein, Kansas StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Curt Cignetti, IndianaPoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Dabo Swinney, ClemsonPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 5%Dan Lanning, OregonPoach watch 6% · Hot seat 1%Dan Mullen, UNLVPoach watch 12% · Hot seat 1%David Braun, NorthwesternPoach watch 9% · Hot seat 2%Deion Sanders, ColoradoPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 8%Dell McGee, Georgia StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 29%Derek Mason, Middle TennesseePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 16%Dowell Loggains, App StatePoach watch 4% · Hot seat 8%Eddie George, Bowling GreenPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 24%Eli Drinkwitz, MissouriPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 4%Eric Morris, Oklahoma StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 1%Fran Brown, SyracusePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 6%Gerad Parker, TroyPoach watch 6% · Hot seat 20%G.J. Kinne, Texas StatePoach watch 15% · Hot seat 1%Greg Schiano, RutgersPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 27%Jake Dickert, Wake ForestPoach watch 15% · Hot seat <1%JaMarcus Shephard, Oregon StatePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%James Franklin, Virginia TechPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Jamey Chadwell, LibertyPoach watch 36% · Hot seat <1%Jason Candle, UConnPoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%Jay Sawvel, WyomingPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 6%Jedd Fisch, WashingtonPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 2%Jeff Brohm, LouisvillePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Jeff Choate, NevadaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 27%Jeff Lebby, Mississippi StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 23%Jeff Monken, ArmyPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 5%Jeff Traylor, UTSAPoach watch 6% · Hot seat <1%Jerry Mack, Kennesaw StatePoach watch 7% · Hot seat 10%Jimmy Rogers, Iowa StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Jim Mora, Colorado StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 1%Joey McGuire, Texas TechPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 1%Joe Harasymiak, MassachusettsPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 8%John Hauser, OhioPoach watch 11% · Hot seat <1%Jon Sumrall, FloridaPoach watch 2% · Hot seat <1%Josh Heupel, TennesseePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Kalani Sitake, BYUPoach watch 7% · Hot seat 2%Kalen DeBoer, AlabamaPoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%K.C. Keeler, TemplePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 13%Kenny Dillingham, Arizona StatePoach watch 4% · Hot seat 4%Ken Niumatalolo, San José StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 12%Kirby Moore, Washington StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 5%Kirby Smart, GeorgiaPoach watch 3% · Hot seat <1%Kirk Ferentz, IowaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 7%Kyle Whittingham, MichiganPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 1%Lance Leipold, KansasPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 14%Lane Kiffin, LSUPoach watch 3% · Hot seat <1%Lincoln Riley, USCPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Luke Fickell, WisconsinPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 3%Major Applewhite, South AlabamaPoach watch 8% · Hot seat 14%Manny Diaz, DukePoach watch 9% · Hot seat 1%Marcus Freeman, Notre DamePoach watch 12% · Hot seat <1%Mario Cristobal, MiamiPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Mark Carney, Kent StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 25%Matt Campbell, Penn StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 1%Matt Drinkall, Central MichiganPoach watch 6% · Hot seat 5%Matt Entz, Fresno StatePoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Matt Rhule, NebraskaPoach watch 13% · Hot seat 1%Michael Desormeaux, LouisianaPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 5%Mike Elko, Texas A&MPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 7%Mike Jacobs, ToledoPoach watch 9% · Hot seat <1%Mike Uremovich, Ball StatePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 24%Morgan Scalley, UtahPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Neal Brown, North TexasPoach watch 12% · Hot seat <1%Pat Fitzgerald, Michigan StatePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 5%Pat Narduzzi, PittsburghPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 5%Pete Golding, Ole MissPoach watch 1% · Hot seat <1%Pete Lembo, BuffaloPoach watch 15% · Hot seat 2%P.J. Fleck, MinnesotaPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 8%Rhett Lashlee, SMUPoach watch 11% · Hot seat 3%Rich Rodriguez, West VirginiaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 18%Ricky Rahne, Old DominionPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 49%Ryan Beard, Coastal CarolinaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 2%Ryan Carty, DelawarePoach watch 3% · Hot seat 2%Ryan Day, Ohio StatePoach watch 7% · Hot seat <1%Ryan Silverfield, ArkansasPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 3%Scotty Walden, UTEPPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 52%Scott Abell, RicePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 22%Scott Frost, UCFPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 5%Scott Satterfield, CincinnatiPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 9%Sean Lewis, San Diego StatePoach watch 5% · Hot seat 20%Shane Beamer, South CarolinaPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 4%Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana TechPoach watch 29% · Hot seat 6%Sonny Dykes, TCUPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 6%Steve Sarkisian, TexasPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 1%Tavita Pritchard, StanfordPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 2%Timmy Chang, Hawai'iPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 34%Tim Albin, CharlottePoach watch <1% · Hot seat 48%Tim Polasek, North Dakota StatePoach watch 38% · Hot seat <1%Tony Elliott, VirginiaPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 14%Tony Gibson, MarshallPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 1%Tony Sanchez, New Mexico StatePoach watch 1% · Hot seat 19%Tosh Lupoi, CaliforniaPoach watch <1% · Hot seat 2%Tre Lamb, TulsaPoach watch 2% · Hot seat 6%Troy Calhoun, Air ForcePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 17%Tyson Helton, Western KentuckyPoach watch 5% · Hot seat 24%Willie Fritz, HoustonPoach watch 1% · Hot seat 3%Willie Simmons, Florida InternationalPoach watch 4% · Hot seat 10%Will Hall, TulanePoach watch 2% · Hot seat 1%Will Stein, KentuckyPoach watch 4% · Hot seat <1%Zach Kittley, Florida AtlanticPoach watch 3% · Hot seat 2%

Each dot is a head coach. Across: the hot seat, the chance his school pushes him out by the end of this season. Up: Poach watch, the chance he leaves this winter for a job he chooses. The white lines mark 10% on each. Both scales stretch the low end so the crowd of small chances spreads out. Hover a dot to see whose it is; every coach is also in the table below.

Every head coach

Settled under 10% · Noticed 10–20% · Wanted 20–35% · Coveted 35% and up. Words for the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

Coveted

35% and up · 5 coaches

#Poach watchCoachHot seatWhat drives his number
146%Jason Eck New Mexico<1% Cool▲His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 23.1 points a game
244%Spencer Danielson Boise State<1% Cool▲His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 12.2 points a game · AP-ranked
341%Lance Taylor Western Michigan2% Cool▲His team is 6-3, outscoring opponents by 7.0 points a game
438%Tim Polasek North Dakota State<1% Cool▲His team is 7-2, outscoring opponents by 16.2 points a game
536%Jamey Chadwell Liberty<1% Cool▲His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 20.2 points a game

Wanted

20–35% · 1 coach

#Poach watchCoachHot seatWhat drives his number
629%Sonny Cumbie Louisiana Tech6% Cool▲His team is 6-2, outscoring opponents by 11.8 points a game

Noticed

10–20% · 11 coaches

#Poach watchCoachHot seatWhat drives his number
715%G.J. Kinne Texas State1% Cool▲His 4th season at Texas State
815%Pete Lembo Buffalo2% Cool▲His team is 6-3, outscored by 2.1 points a game
915%Jake Dickert Wake Forest<1% Cool▲Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
1013%Matt Rhule Nebraska1% Cool▲Age 51 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in, a former NFL head coach
1112%Marcus Freeman Notre Dame<1% Cool▲Age 40 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
1212%Neal Brown North Texas<1% Cool▼His first season at North Texas
1312%Billy Napier James Madison<1% Cool▲His team is 7-2, outscoring opponents by 20.2 points a game
1412%Dan Mullen UNLV1% Cool▲His team is 5-3, outscoring opponents by 1.2 points a game
1512%Blake Harrell East Carolina5% Cool▲Age 47 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
1611%Rhett Lashlee SMU3% Cool▲Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
1711%John Hauser Ohio<1% Cool▲His team is 7-2, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points a game

Settled

under 10% · 115 coaches

Show the 115 Settled
#Poach watchCoachHot seatWhat drives his number
189.5%Brian Newberry Navy9.7% Cool▲His 4th season at Navy
199%Brian Hartline South Florida<1% Cool▼His first season at South Florida
209%Matt Entz Fresno State<1% Cool▲His team is 5-3, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points a game
219%David Braun Northwestern2% Cool▲His 4th season at Northwestern
229%Manny Diaz Duke1% Cool▲His 3rd season at Duke
239%Charles Huff Memphis<1% Cool▼His first season at Memphis
249%Mike Jacobs Toledo<1% Cool▼His first season at Toledo
258%Major Applewhite South Alabama14% Warm▲His 3rd season at South Alabama
268%Brent Brennan Arizona1% Cool▲His 3rd season at Arizona
278%Clay Helton Georgia Southern4% Cool▲Paid $900,000 in 2025, the 19th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 12% on the season before
288%Joey McGuire Texas Tech1% Cool▲His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 14.5 points a game · AP-ranked
297%Curt Cignetti Indiana<1% Cool▼Age 65 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
307%Jerry Mack Kennesaw State10% Warm▲Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
317%Jeff Monken Army5% Cool▲His team is 5-3, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points a game
327%Charles Kelly Jacksonville State<1% Cool▼Age 59 · in the state he was born in
337%Kalani Sitake BYU2% Cool▲His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points a game · AP-ranked
347%Ryan Day Ohio State<1% Cool▲Age 47 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
356%Gerad Parker Troy20% Hot▲His 3rd season at Troy
366%Matt Drinkall Central Michigan5% Cool▲Paid $622,450 in 2025, the 3rd percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
376%Bob Chesney UCLA<1% Cool▼His first season at UCLA
386%Dan Lanning Oregon1% Cool▲Age 40 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
396%Jeff Traylor UTSA<1% Cool▲His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 7.5 points a game
405%Michael Desormeaux Louisiana5% Cool▼Age 41 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
415%Sean Lewis San Diego State20% Hot▲Age 40 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
425%Tyson Helton Western Kentucky24% Hot▲Age 49 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
435%P.J. Fleck Minnesota8% Cool▲Age 45 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
445%Tony Elliott Virginia14% Warm▲Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
454%Eli Drinkwitz Missouri4% Cool▲Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
464%Dowell Loggains App State8% Cool▲Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
474%Butch Jones Arkansas State10% Warm▼Age 58 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
484%Ricky Rahne Old Dominion49% Boiling▲Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
494%Will Stein Kentucky<1% Cool▼His first season at Kentucky
504%Tony Gibson Marshall1% Cool▼5-7 over his previous season here
514%Kenny Dillingham Arizona State4% Cool▲His 4th season at Arizona State
524%Jason Candle UConn<1% Cool▼His first season at UConn
534%Willie Simmons Florida International10% Warm▲Paid $750,000 in 2025, the 10th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
544%Mike Elko Texas A&M7% Cool▲His 3rd season at Texas A&M
554%Chuck Martin Miami (OH)25% Hot▲His team is 5-4, outscoring opponents by 0.8 points a game
564%Jay Sawvel Wyoming6% Cool▼7-17 over his previous two seasons here
574%Kalen DeBoer Alabama<1% Cool▲His 3rd season at Alabama
583%Lane Kiffin LSU<1% Cool▲Age 51 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in, a former NFL head coach
593%Josh Heupel Tennessee1% Cool▲Age 48 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
603%Scott Satterfield Cincinnati9% Cool▲His 4th season at Cincinnati
613%Ryan Carty Delaware2% Cool▼7-6 over his previous season here
623%Fran Brown Syracuse6% Cool▲His 3rd season at Syracuse
633%Steve Sarkisian Texas1% Cool▼Paid $10.8 million in 2025, the 96th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 2% on the season before
643%Zach Kittley Florida Atlantic2% Cool▼4-8 over his previous season here
653%Lincoln Riley USC1% Cool▲Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
663%JaMarcus Shephard Oregon State1% Cool▼His first season at Oregon State
673%Kirby Smart Georgia<1% Cool▲His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 26.1 points a game · AP-ranked
682%Jon Sumrall Florida<1% Cool▼His first season at Florida
692%Mark Carney Kent State25% Hot▲Paid $300,000 in 2025, the 1st percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
702%Will Hall Tulane1% Cool▼His first season at Tulane
712%Chris Creighton Eastern Michigan39% Boiling▼9-15 over his previous two seasons here
722%Jedd Fisch Washington2% Cool▲His 3rd season at Washington
732%Tre Lamb Tulsa6% Cool▼4-8 over his previous season here
742%Mike Uremovich Ball State24% Hot▼4-8 over his previous season here
752%Eric Morris Oklahoma State1% Cool▼His first season at Oklahoma State
762%Timmy Chang Hawai'i34% Hot▼Age 45 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
772%Troy Calhoun Air Force17% Warm▼Age 60 · coaching at his alma mater
782%Luke Fickell Wisconsin3% Cool▲His 4th season at Wisconsin
792%Jeff Lebby Mississippi State23% Hot▼7-18 over his previous two seasons here
802%Alex Golesh Auburn1% Cool▼His first season at Auburn
811%Dabo Swinney Clemson5% Cool▼Paid $11.4 million in 2025, the 97th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 3% on the season before
821%James Franklin Virginia Tech<1% Cool▼His first season at Virginia Tech
831%Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts8% Cool▼0-12 over his previous season here
841%Pat Narduzzi Pittsburgh5% Cool▼Age 60 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
851%Derek Mason Middle Tennessee16% Warm▼6-18 over his previous two seasons here
861%Shane Beamer South Carolina4% Cool▼Paid $8.2 million in 2025, the 84th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 27% on the season before
871%Casey Woods Missouri State1% Cool▼His first season at Missouri State
881%Scott Frost UCF5% Cool▼5-7 over his previous season here
891%Bret Bielema Illinois2% Cool▼Age 56 · in the state he was born in
901%Pete Golding Ole Miss<1% Cool▼His first season at Ole Miss
911%Mario Cristobal Miami<1% Cool▼Age 56 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
921%Brent Key Georgia Tech38% Boiling▲His 4th season at Georgia Tech
931%Eddie George Bowling Green24% Hot▼His team is 2-7, outscored by 11.2 points a game
941%Bill O'Brien Boston College12% Warm▼His team is 4-4, outscored by 4.9 points a game
951%Clark Lea Vanderbilt20% Hot▼Age 43 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
961%Matt Campbell Penn State1% Cool▼His first season at Penn State
971%Jimmy Rogers Iowa State1% Cool▼His first season at Iowa State
981%Jeff Choate Nevada27% Hot▼6-19 over his previous two seasons here
991%Ryan Beard Coastal Carolina2% Cool▼His first season at Coastal Carolina
1001%Dell McGee Georgia State29% Hot▼4-20 over his previous two seasons here
1011%Willie Fritz Houston3% Cool▼Age 66 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
1021%Jeff Brohm Louisville1% Cool▼Age 55 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
1031%Ken Niumatalolo San José State12% Warm▼Age 61 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
1041%Tony Sanchez New Mexico State19% Warm▼7-17 over his previous two seasons here
1051%Sonny Dykes TCU6% Cool▼Age 56 · in the state he was born in
1061%Morgan Scalley Utah<1% Cool▼His first season at Utah
1071%Bryant Vincent UL Monroe53% Boiling▼His team is 1-7, outscored by 16.8 points a game
1081%Brent Venables Oklahoma9.5% Cool▼A Power Four program · 95th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
1091%Joe Moorhead Akron52% Boiling▼His team is 1-8, outscored by 13.1 points a game
1101%Ryan Silverfield Arkansas3% Cool▼His first season at Arkansas
1111%Deion Sanders Colorado8% Cool▼His team is 3-5, outscored by 8.4 points a game
1121%Collin Klein Kansas State1% Cool▼His first season at Kansas State
113<1%Alex Mortensen UAB3% Cool▼His first season at UAB
114<1%Greg Schiano Rutgers27% Hot▼His team is 2-6, outscored by 4.9 points a game
115<1%Bronco Mendenhall Utah State3% Cool▼Age 60 · in the state he was born in
116<1%Lance Leipold Kansas14% Warm▼Age 62 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
117<1%Scotty Walden UTEP52% Boiling▼His team is 1-7, outscored by 22.4 points a game
118<1%Tavita Pritchard Stanford2% Cool▼His first season at Stanford
119<1%Jim Mora Colorado State1% Cool▼His first season at Colorado State
120<1%Pat Fitzgerald Michigan State5% Cool▼His team is 2-6, outscored by 5.9 points a game
121<1%Kirby Moore Washington State5% Cool▼His team is 1-8, outscored by 8.4 points a game
122<1%Barry Odom Purdue12% Warm▼2-10 over his previous season here
123<1%Kirk Ferentz Iowa7% Cool▼Age 71 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
124<1%Scott Abell Rice22% Hot▼His team is 1-7, outscored by 10.8 points a game
125<1%Tosh Lupoi California2% Cool▼His first season at California
126<1%Alonzo Carter Sacramento State5% Cool▼His team is 2-7, outscored by 13.3 points a game
127<1%Kyle Whittingham Michigan1% Cool▼Age 66 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
128<1%Rich Rodriguez West Virginia18% Warm▼Age 63 · coaching at his alma mater
129<1%Tim Albin Charlotte48% Boiling▼His team is 1-7, outscored by 19.6 points a game
130<1%K.C. Keeler Temple13% Warm▼Age 67 · in the state he was born in
131<1%Blake Anderson Southern Miss12% Warm▼0-1 over his previous season here
132<1%Bill Belichick North Carolina17% Warm▼Age 74 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in, a former NFL head coach

Not rated: Aazaar Abdul-Rahim (Maryland), Eric Raisbeck (Sam Houston), Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (Sam Houston), Joe Klanderman (Baylor), Rick Stockstill (Florida State), Rob Harley (Northern Illinois) and Todd Goebbel (NC State). An interim head coach has no number: it is only for a school’s permanent head coach.

The coordinators most likely to move up

Their number counts a bigger coordinator job as moving up too, and going with a head coach who is hired away.

#Poach watchCoordinator
142%Kevin Decker Memphis OC
241%Nate Potter Boise State OC
332%Shannon Dawson Miami OC
431%Landon Keopple Texas State OC
527%Mike Denbrock Notre Dame OC

All 329 FBS coordinators →

How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
What counts as leaving? A job he chooses. The details

Counted: any head-coaching job he takes, college at any level or NFL, and an NFL coordinator job. A coach who leaves while his job is in danger still counts, since the move was his. Not counted: an interim stint, or a coach his school let go who is then hired somewhere else — that is the hot seat’s outcome, being pushed out. Each of the 139 departures the model learned from, 2004–2025, was read case by case.