The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Rhett Lashlee

Followed Sonny Dykes. Rhett Lashlee raised SMU from Regional Program I to National Program I.

38–16
2022–now · 1 stint
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In his own words

I thought it was a good first game for the defense
I think [the] first half we played great
Smudailycampusthe day after the 27–24 opener

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerSMUPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelSMU, 2022: 7-6, National Program III2022SMU, 2023: 11-3, National Program II2023SMU, 2024: 11-3, National Program I2024SMU, 2025: 9-4, National Program I2025SMU, 2026: in progress, National Program I2026+13.8One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

SMU, 5 seasons (active)
+13.8
National Program III → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%SMU2022–2026▲ 4.2pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
SMU10.4pt#124 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2–3 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Sonny Dykes.

Rivalry record
2–3
40.0% · 2 rivals
One-score games
10–7
58.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–1
50.0%
Rivalry ledger
TCU1–325%
Rice1–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Sonny Dykes1–3
4 meetings, 2022–2025
’22 L’23 L · blew a 3-pt lead’24 W · wire to wire’25 L · blew a 3-pt lead
25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1–1 50.0%
Power Program
7–6 53.8%
National Program
10–5 66.7%
Regional Program
13–2 86.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.43
#35 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.27
#41 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2022–now
SMUbuilderborderline
Regional Program I → National Program I
Rhett Lashlee raised SMU from Regional Program I to National Program I.

5th-best SMU tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+23.6 pts
#26 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+16.1 pts
#47 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Sonny Dykes (2018–2021).

Season20222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record7–611–311–39–40–0
PostseasonL bowlL bowlCFP lossW bowl
Recruiting rank#82#72#107#31#32
Style — pass rate
Pass rate51.045.544.953.555.3
Coordinators
OCCasey WoodsCasey Woods / Jonathan Brewer / Rob LikensCasey Woods / Garin Justice / Rob LikensCasey Woods / Garin Justice / Rob LikensGarin Justice / Rob Likens
DCScott SymonsScott SymonsMaurice Crum Jr. / Scott Symons / Rickey Hunley Jr.Maurice Crum Jr. / Scott Symons / Rickey Hunley Jr.Maurice Crum Jr. / Rickey Hunley Jr.
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7888679090
Defense1095978963
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%49.239.644.554.151.1
Red-zone pass%41.135.032.844.236.8
4th-down go%opp. territory51.133.321.622.9
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
97
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
97
left via the portal
Net portal flow
0
#42 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
PJ Williams On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 242 lbs
across 78 of 97 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.7 lbs
#51 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#97 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: TX (30), FL (11), GA (11), CA (3), CO (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
58.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.8
position-weighted
Net
-0.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tyler Van Dyke (QB) from Wisconsin
Biggest loss: Tanner Mordecai (QB) to Wisconsin
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Casey Woods → Casey Woods / co-Jonathan Brewer / co-Rob Likens · 2023
78th pct88th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 49.2% → 39.6% (-9.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 42% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Casey Woods / co-Jonathan Brewer / co-Rob Likens → Casey Woods / co-Garin Justice / co-Rob Likens · 2024
88th pct67th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.6% → 44.5% (+4.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 92% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Casey Woods / co-Garin Justice / co-Rob Likens → co-Garin Justice / co-Rob Likens · 2026
90th pct90th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 54.1% → 51.1% (-3.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 57% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Scott Symons → co-Maurice Crum Jr. / Scott Symons / co-Rickey Hunley Jr. · 2024the defense leveled up
53rd pct93rd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: co-Maurice Crum Jr. / Scott Symons / co-Rickey Hunley Jr. → co-Maurice Crum Jr. / co-Rickey Hunley Jr. · 2026
89th pct63rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
203 lbs
6′1″ avg · #639 of 767 · less than most
Running back
201 lbs
5′11″ avg · #618 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
192 lbs
6′0″ avg · #457 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
245 lbs
6′4″ avg · #359 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
308 lbs
6′5″ avg · #435 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
294 lbs
6′3″ avg · #181 of 753 · more than most
Edge
253 lbs
6′4″ avg · #101 of 188 · a typical amount
Linebacker
227 lbs
6′1″ avg · #445 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
189 lbs
6′0″ avg · #424 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
194 lbs
5′11″ avg · #246 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys ATH via the portal
25%
#17 of 146 stints
Buys D-line via the portal
73%
#24 of 239 stints
Postseason detail2022: Lost to BYU 23–24 New Mexico Bowl2023: Lost to Boston College 14–23 Wasabi Fenway Bowl2024: Lost to Penn State 10–38 College Football Playoff First Round Game Presented by Allstate2025: Beat Arizona 24–19 Trust & Will Holiday Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Danny Gray (2022), Grant Calcaterra (2022), Rashee Rice (2023), Elijah Roberts (2025), Brashard Smith (2025), Matthew Hibner (2026)

AI Narratives — “SMU's Offseason Moves Raise Starter Risk Concerns” and 14 more on the team page.

38–16
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.