His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
swipe to see the full arc
Reached Dynasty in his 16th career season — faster than 13% of the 15 FBS coaches who have ever reached Dynasty (rank #13 of 15 by seasons-to-arrival).
Michigan State, 5 seasons
+1.5
National Program I → Power Program III.
LSU, 5 seasons
+13.8
Power Program III → Blue Blood.
Alabama, 17 seasons
+41.8
Power Program II → Blue Blood.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Alabama15.9pt#41 of 258 · more than most
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
53–21 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Joe Tiller.
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
1–4 20.0%
Blue Blood
31–19 62.0%
Power Program
98–25 79.7%
National Program
55–16 77.5%
Regional Program
77–7 91.7%
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Offense marginal impact
+0.99
#3 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.73
#1 of 325 · more than most
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
program directionOne fan's take
One fan thinks Nick Saban's leadership led to stronger team performance
I don’t remember when Nick Saban was there anybody any team talking bad about Alabama when they were dominating everybody?
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 25, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
Show all 2
player performanceOne fan's take
One fan believes his player development has stagnated
If Kalen or Courtney were in the NFL as GM's they would have already been fired based on the horrid portal signings we have had the last 2 years.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 16, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
Nick Saban took Alabama from Power Program I to Dynasty — 10 Dynasty seasons.
1st-best Alabama tenure of 12 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+17.0 pts
#46 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+17.0 pts
#43 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Mike Shula (2003–2006) · succeeded by Kalen DeBoer (2024–2026).
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Portal arrivals
14
3.6★ avg rating
Portal departures
56
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-42
#169 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 216 lbs
across 11 of 14 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.3 lbs
#85 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#37 of 255 · more than most
Top states: CA (4), FL (3), GA (2), MO (1), LA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
59.7
position-weighted
Net
-6.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tyler Buchner (QB) from Notre Dame
Biggest loss: Paul Tyson (QB) to Arizona State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Lane Kiffin → co-Mike Locksley / Brian Daboll · 2017
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.5% → 33.2% (-8.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 73% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Mike Locksley / Brian Daboll → Mike Locksley / co-Josh Gattis · 2018
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 33.2% → 46.7% (+13.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Mike Locksley / co-Josh Gattis → Steve Sarkisian · 2019
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.7% → 54.0% (+7.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 70% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Steve Sarkisian → Bill O'Brien · 2021the system held
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 53.4% → 46.3% (-7.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 19% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Bill O'Brien → Tommy Rees · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.5% → 36.0% (-10.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 40% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Kirby Smart → Jeremy Pruitt · 2016
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Jeremy Pruitt → co-Tosh Lupoi / Jeremy Pruitt · 2017
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Tosh Lupoi / Jeremy Pruitt → co-Pete Golding / Tosh Lupoi · 2018
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Pete Golding / Tosh Lupoi → co-Charles Kelly / Pete Golding · 2019
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Charles Kelly / Pete Golding → Kevin Steele · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
317 lbs
6′5″ avg · #101 of 779 · more than most
D-line
304 lbs
6′4″ avg · #50 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
236 lbs
6′3″ avg · #93 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
197 lbs
6′1″ avg · #65 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
94%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Ohio State 35–42 Allstate Sugar Bowl - Semifinal2015: Beat Michigan State 38–0 CFP2015: Beat Clemson 45–40 Cfp National Championship Game Pres. By At&T2016: Beat Washington 24–7 CFP2016: Lost to Clemson 31–35 Cfp National Championship Game Presented By At&T2017: Beat Clemson 24–6 Allstate Sugar Bowl - Cfp Semifinal2017: Beat Georgia 26–23 Cfp National Championship Presented By At&T2018: Beat Oklahoma 45–34 Capital One Orange Bowl - Cfp Semifinal2018: Lost to Clemson 16–44 Cfp National Championship Presented By At&T2019: Beat Michigan 35–16 Vrbo Citrus Bowl2020: Beat Notre Dame 31–14 Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One - CFP Semifinal2020: Beat Ohio State 52–24 CFP National Championship pres. by AT&T2021: Beat Cincinnati 27–6 CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic2021: Lost to Georgia 18–33 CFP National Championship pres. by AT&T2022: Beat Kansas State 45–20 Allstate Sugar Bowl2023: Lost to Michigan 20–27 CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Prudential
136 NFL Draft picks: Le'Ron McClain (2007), Kenneth Darby (2007), Ramzee Robinson (2007), Andre Smith (2009), Glen Coffee (2009), Antoine Caldwell (2009), Rashad Johnson (2009), Rolando McClain (2010) + 128 more