The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Nick Saban

Followed Mike Shula. Nick Saban took Alabama from Power Program I to Dynasty — 10 Dynasty seasons.

The ascent
297–71
1990–2023 · 4 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Josh did a really good job for us and he came in a little bit heavy so we had to get some weight off of him
Cam Robinson has done a really good job
Saturday Down South3 days before the opener
When you have something like that, it kind of pushes you to greatness. It was run like an old-school Nick Saban -Alabama type of thing.
Barnett · On3
When you have something like that, it kind of pushes you to greatness. It was run like an old-school Nick Saban -Alabama type of thing.
Barnett · On3
Growing up, my dream school was Alabama when Nick Saban was there. But they wasn’t recruiting me
Smith · FOX Sports
Growing up my dream school was Alabama when Nick Saban was there
Smith · Saturday Down South
We’re talking about the successor to Nick Saban. We’re talking about 17 seasons, 6 national titles, 9 SEC championships
Smith · Saturday Down South
Coach Saban kinda coached at another place in this conference, so I can’t really say exactly what he said
Kiffin · Saturday Down South
Growing up my dream school was Alabama when Nick Saban was there
Smith · Saturday Down South
It almost feels like how Nick Saban was
Taylor · HBCU Gameday
I didn’t come here to follow Coach Saban only to turn around after two years and go somewhere else
DeBoer · The Crimson White

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Dynasty in his 16th career season — faster than 13% of the 15 FBS coaches who have ever reached Dynasty (rank #13 of 15 by seasons-to-arrival).

Michigan State, 5 seasons
+1.5
National Program I → Power Program III.
LSU, 5 seasons
+13.8
Power Program III → Blue Blood.
Alabama, 17 seasons
+41.8
Power Program II → Blue Blood.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Alabama2007–2023▼ 7.6pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Alabama15.9pt#41 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

53–21 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Joe Tiller.

Rivalry record
53–21
71.6% · 11 rivals
One-score games
56–36–1
60.2% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–4
20.0%
Rivalry ledger
LSU11–569%
Tennessee14–193%
Auburn10–567%
Michigan2–340%
Penn State2–340%
Alabama4–180%
Ole Miss4–180%
Arkansas3–260%
The toughest matchup
vs. Joe Tiller0–3
3 meetings, 1997–1999
’97 L’98 L’99 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
1–4 20.0%
Blue Blood
31–19 62.0%
Power Program
98–25 79.7%
National Program
55–16 77.5%
Regional Program
77–7 91.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.99
#3 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.73
#1 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

program directionOne fan's take

One fan thinks Nick Saban's leadership led to stronger team performance

I don’t remember when Nick Saban was there anybody any team talking bad about Alabama when they were dominating everybody?

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 25, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON

Show all 2
player performanceOne fan's take

One fan believes his player development has stagnated

If Kalen or Courtney were in the NFL as GM's they would have already been fired based on the horrid portal signings we have had the last 2 years.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 16, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON

Coaching career

2007–2023
Alabamatransformer🏆 coach of the year
Power Program I → Dynasty
Nick Saban took Alabama from Power Program I to Dynasty — 10 Dynasty seasons.

1st-best Alabama tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+17.0 pts
#46 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+17.0 pts
#43 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Shula (2003–2006) · succeeded by Kalen DeBoer (2024–2026).

Season20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Trend
Record & result
Record7–612–214–010–312–113–111–212–214–114–113–114–111–213–013–211–212–2
PostseasonL bowlCHAMPIONTitle game LCHAMPIONTitle game LW bowlCHAMPIONTitle game LW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#1#1#1#1#5#1#2#1#2#1
Style — pass rate
Pass rate44.341.039.535.243.448.247.251.048.936.7
Coordinators
OCLane KiffinLane KiffinLane KiffinMike Locksley / Brian DabollMike Locksley / Josh GattisSteve SarkisianSteve SarkisianBill O'BrienBill O'BrienTommy Rees
DCKirby SmartKirby SmartJeremy PruittTosh Lupoi / Jeremy PruittPete Golding / Tosh LupoiCharles Kelly / Pete GoldingCharles Kelly / Pete GoldingCharles Kelly / Pete GoldingCharles Kelly / Pete GoldingKevin Steele
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense958985909998100979491
Defense86981001007310099979173
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%41.840.441.533.246.754.052.846.046.536.0
Red-zone pass%42.430.836.334.140.543.438.851.043.326.7
4th-down go%opp. territory30.628.820.029.428.033.331.830.025.017.5
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
14
3.6★ avg rating
Portal departures
56
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-42
#169 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 216 lbs
across 11 of 14 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.3 lbs
#85 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#37 of 255 · more than most
Top states: CA (4), FL (3), GA (2), MO (1), LA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
59.7
position-weighted
Net
-6.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tyler Buchner (QB) from Notre Dame
Biggest loss: Paul Tyson (QB) to Arizona State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Lane Kiffin → co-Mike Locksley / Brian Daboll · 2017
85th pct90th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.5% → 33.2% (-8.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 73% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Mike Locksley / Brian Daboll → Mike Locksley / co-Josh Gattis · 2018
90th pct99th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 33.2% → 46.7% (+13.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Mike Locksley / co-Josh Gattis → Steve Sarkisian · 2019
99th pct98th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.7% → 54.0% (+7.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 70% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Steve Sarkisian → Bill O'Brien · 2021the system held
99th pct96th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 53.4% → 46.3% (-7.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 19% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Bill O'Brien → Tommy Rees · 2023
94th pct91st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.5% → 36.0% (-10.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 40% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Kirby Smart → Jeremy Pruitt · 2016
98th pct100th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Jeremy Pruitt → co-Tosh Lupoi / Jeremy Pruitt · 2017
100th pct100th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Tosh Lupoi / Jeremy Pruitt → co-Pete Golding / Tosh Lupoi · 2018
100th pct73rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Pete Golding / Tosh Lupoi → co-Charles Kelly / Pete Golding · 2019
73rd pct100th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Charles Kelly / Pete Golding → Kevin Steele · 2023
91st pct73rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
209 lbs
6′1″ avg · #518 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
217 lbs
6′0″ avg · #87 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
193 lbs
6′0″ avg · #390 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
244 lbs
6′4″ avg · #428 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
317 lbs
6′5″ avg · #101 of 779 · more than most
D-line
304 lbs
6′4″ avg · #50 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
236 lbs
6′3″ avg · #93 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
197 lbs
6′1″ avg · #65 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
94%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Ohio State 35–42 Allstate Sugar Bowl - Semifinal2015: Beat Michigan State 38–0 CFP2015: Beat Clemson 45–40 Cfp National Championship Game Pres. By At&T2016: Beat Washington 24–7 CFP2016: Lost to Clemson 31–35 Cfp National Championship Game Presented By At&T2017: Beat Clemson 24–6 Allstate Sugar Bowl - Cfp Semifinal2017: Beat Georgia 26–23 Cfp National Championship Presented By At&T2018: Beat Oklahoma 45–34 Capital One Orange Bowl - Cfp Semifinal2018: Lost to Clemson 16–44 Cfp National Championship Presented By At&T2019: Beat Michigan 35–16 Vrbo Citrus Bowl2020: Beat Notre Dame 31–14 Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One - CFP Semifinal2020: Beat Ohio State 52–24 CFP National Championship pres. by AT&T2021: Beat Cincinnati 27–6 CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic2021: Lost to Georgia 18–33 CFP National Championship pres. by AT&T2022: Beat Kansas State 45–20 Allstate Sugar Bowl2023: Lost to Michigan 20–27 CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Prudential

136 NFL Draft picks: Le'Ron McClain (2007), Kenneth Darby (2007), Ramzee Robinson (2007), Andre Smith (2009), Glen Coffee (2009), Antoine Caldwell (2009), Rashad Johnson (2009), Rolando McClain (2010) + 128 more

Coach of the Year: SEC Coach of the Year (2020)

20 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Patrick Surtain II (2020), Christian Barmore (2020), Mac Jones (2020), Najee Harris (2020), DeVonta Smith (2020), Will Reichard (2020), Dylan Moses (2020), Landon Dickerson (2020) + 12 more

206–29
2000–2004
LSUbuilderborderline
Power Program III → Blue Blood
Nick Saban raised LSU from Power Program III to Blue Blood.

6th-best LSU tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Gerry DiNardo (1995–1999) · succeeded by Les Miles (2005–2016).

24 NFL Draft picks: Mark Roman (2000), Rondell Mealey (2000), Brandon Winey (2001), Josh Booty (2001), Louis Williams (2001), Josh Reed (2002), Rohan Davey (2002), Jarvis Green (2002) + 16 more

48–16
1995–1999
Michigan Statecaretaker
Power Program III → Power Program III
Nick Saban held Michigan State at Power Program III for 5 seasons.

7th-best Michigan State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed George Perles (1983–1994) · succeeded by Bobby Williams (2000–2002).

16 NFL Draft picks: Brian DeMarco (1995), Shane Hannah (1995), Derrick Mason (1997), Nigea Carter (1997), Flozell Adams (1998), Ike Reese (1998), Scott Shaw (1998), Dimitrius Underwood (1999) + 8 more

34–24
1990–1990
Toledocaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program II
Nick Saban moved Toledo from Regional Program III to Regional Program II in 1 season.

12th-best Toledo tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Dan Simrell (1982–1989) · succeeded by Gary Pinkel (1991–2000).

9–2

Defining games during this era

2018 NCG · Alabama 26, Georgia 23 (OT)2016 NCG · Clemson 35, Alabama 312024 Rose Bowl semifinal · Michigan 27, Alabama 20 (OT)2017 Iron Bowl · Auburn 26, Alabama 142018 NCG · Clemson 44, Alabama 162018 SEC Championship · Alabama 35, Georgia 282018 Iron Bowl · Alabama 52, Auburn 212014 Iron Bowl · Alabama 55, Auburn 442014 Sugar Bowl semifinal · Ohio State 42, Alabama 352017 Sugar Bowl semifinal · Alabama 24, Clemson 62022 Third Saturday in October · Tennessee 52, Alabama 492014 SEC Championship · Alabama 42, Missouri 132021 Cotton Bowl semifinal · Alabama 27, Cincinnati 6

In this company

Other coaches who reached Blue-Blood-or-better at multiple programs: Urban Meyer, Lane Kiffin, Ed Orgeron.