The rest of the season
One real test left: No. 15 LSU 47%
Win out 39% · expect 3.3 of 4 more wins
Alabama's chance to win each game left, from our model: LSU 47%, Vanderbilt 93%, Chattanooga 99%, Auburn 89%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 42% to 64%, peaking at 86% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 3rd in the SEC · 4-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Keelon Russell 2,057 · Rushing Daniel Hill 332 · Receiving Lotzeir Brooks 488 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
Follow Alabama:athletics siteSECX@UA_AthleticsInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #21 | #77 | −28.5✓ +9.5 | East Carolina | W 48-10 122 Loud | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Russell 256 · Rush Russell 86 · Rec Williams 130 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #20 | #100 | −9.5✓ +18.5 | @Kentucky | W 45-17 127 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Russell 188 · Rush Hill 104 · Rec Brooks 54 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #20 | #92 | −18.5✗ −4.5 | Florida State | W 50-36 130 | 3-0 | 1-0 | Pass Russell 320 · Rush Brown 86 · Rec Brooks 101 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #16 | #22 | −12.5✓ +18.5 | South Carolina | W 49-18 130 | 4-0 | 2-0 | Pass Russell 365 · Rush Crowell 50 · Rec Williams 98 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #10 | #63 | −5.5✓ +27.5 | @Mississippi StateTop 25 win | W 56-23 131 | 5-0 | 3-0 | Pass Russell 285 · Rush Brown 66 · Rec Brooks 96 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #8 | #1 | −2.5✗ −5.5 | Georgia | L 17-20 121 Roaring | 5-1 | 3-1 | Pass Russell 185 · Rush Brown 90 · Rec Williams 39 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #6 | #30 | −7.5✗ −23.5 | @Tennessee | L 10-26 127 | 5-2 | 3-2 | Pass Russell 147 · Rush Hill 34 · Rec Scott 54 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #7 | #25 | −13.5✗ −2.5 | Texas A&M | W 31-20 119 | 6-2 | 4-2 | Pass Russell 311 · Rush Hill 36 · Rec Scott 156 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | #8 | #6 | +5.5 | @LSU | 3:30 pm ET · ABC47% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #8 | #80 | @Vanderbilt | time TBA · SEC Network93% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Chattanooga | 2 pm ET99% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | −10 | Auburn | time TBA | |||||
Win chances are our model for Alabama, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Alabama: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | Texas A&M | W 31-20 | 379 | 1 | 26:50 | +0.214 | 43.3% | 1.38 | |
| Oct 17 | @Tennessee | L 10-26 | 201 | 4 | 24:16 | -0.292 | 32.7% | 0.95 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Georgia | L 17-20 | 346 | 1 | 26:32 | +0.202 | 44.3% | 1.42 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | @Mississippi State | W 56-23 | 483 | 2 | 34:41 | +0.446 | 58.7% | 1.22 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | South Carolina | W 49-18 | 489 | 0 | 30:20 | +0.510 | 47.4% | 1.80 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Florida State | W 50-36 | 567 | 0 | 32:08 | +0.457 | 49.3% | 1.44 | |
| Sep 12 | @Kentucky | W 45-17 | 343 | 3 | 32:14 | +0.132 | 47.6% | 1.10 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | East Carolina | W 48-10 | 487 | 1 | 38:53 | +0.292 | 52.5% | 1.11 | Blowout win |
| Season average (8 games) | 412 | 1.5 | +0.245 | 47.0% | 1.30 | ||||
Alabama's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
No. 4 Texas
First-round bye
Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Each gold dot is a story from that week. Tap one to read it.
64% now · ▼ 5 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · Alabama · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 9%; 9 wins 51%; 10 wins 39%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Alabama is the program the sport measures itself against — now measuring a new coach against six Saban titles, and a 38-3 Playoff humbling against the only standard it knows.
Every loss now feeds the same eulogy — that the dynasty died with Saban and DeBoer is presiding over the decline. The fanbase has heard the program written off before, and isn't ready to concede it.
Alabama · Game-day weather
Typical at Bryant-Denny Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, noon Saturdays 83
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 111 at noon, 113 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Alabama is the program the rest of college football measures itself against.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #5, Ian Kress (WLNS-TV), to #17, Ty Hildenbrandt (The Solid Verbal).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
No financial relationship with any outlet listed. If we have a reporter wrong or missing, please let us know.
Range of outcomes · Alabama · 2026