Alabama at Kentucky
Fan take
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Alabama · 11-4
Picked #21 in the preseason · now #24 — about right.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 10-point win over Oklahoma as a 2.5-point underdog.
L 3–38 @ IndianaTop 25 #4 of 668
lost by 35 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 34–24 @ OklahomaTop 25 #23 of 668
won by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 7–28 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 668
lost by 21 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 27–20 @ AuburnTop 25 #28 of 668
won by 7 as a 7-point favorite
W 56–0 vs Eastern Illinois #243 of 668
won by 56 as a 54.5-point favorite
L 21–23 vs OklahomaTop 25 #19 of 668
lost by 2 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 20–9 vs LSUTop 25 #22 of 668
won by 11 as a 10-point favorite
W 29–22 @ South CarolinaTop 25 #41 of 668
won by 7 as a 11.5-point favorite
W 37–20 vs TennesseeTop 25 #22 of 668
won by 17 as a 8.5-point favorite
W 27–24 @ MissouriTop 25 #15 of 668
won by 3 as a 3-point favorite
W 30–14 vs VanderbiltTop 25 #22 of 668
won by 16 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 24–21 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #4 of 668
won by 3 as a 2-point underdog
W 38–14 vs Wisconsin #54 of 668
won by 24 as a 19.5-point favorite
W 73–0 vs UL Monroe #107 of 668
won by 73 as a 34.5-point favorite
L 17–31 @ Florida StateTop 25 #68 of 668
lost by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Kentucky · 5-7
Picked #102 in the preseason · now #106 — about right.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 0–41 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #31 of 668
lost by 41 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 17–45 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #18 of 668
lost by 28 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 42–10 vs Tennessee Tech #98 of 668
won by 32 as a 23.5-point favorite
W 38–7 vs FloridaTop 25 #43 of 668
won by 31 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 10–3 @ AuburnTop 25 #37 of 668
won by 7 as a 12-point underdog
L 34–56 vs TennesseeTop 25 #14 of 668
lost by 22 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 13–16 vs TexasTop 25 #11 of 668
lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 14–35 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #5 of 668
lost by 21 as a 20-point underdog
L 13–35 @ South CarolinaTop 25 #28 of 668
lost by 22 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 48–23 vs Eastern Michigan #174 of 668
won by 25 as a 26.5-point favorite
L 23–30 vs Ole MissTop 25 #17 of 668
lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 24–16 vs Toledo #52 of 668
won by 8 as a 10-point favorite
What’s at stake
Alabama
- Alabama sits at 47% to make the CFP field — 53% with a win here, 35% with a loss.
- Alabama is coming off a 28-point win.
Kentucky
- Kentucky sits at 9% to make the CFP field — 13% with a win here, 6% with a loss.
- Kentucky is still shaking off a 28-point loss.
The series
Alabama leads the series 40-2-1
43 meetings since 1917 · Alabama has won the last 9
- 2026Alabama 45–17
- 2023Alabama 49–21
- 2020Alabama 63–3
- 2016Alabama 34–6
- 2013Alabama 48–7
Best players
Alabama
- Caleb Woodson (LB) · 13 tackles
- Keelon Russell (QB) · 444 passing yards — Heisman odds: 13th (+2400)
- Daniel Hill (RB) · 151 rushing yards
Kentucky
- Jordan Castell (DB) · 16 tackles
- Ty Bryant (DB) · 15 tackles
- Grant Godfrey (LB) · 14 tackles
The line, and the room
Kentucky fans are feeling better about their season (72nd percentile) than Alabama fans are (20th) — even with Alabama favored here.
Home +9.5 · O/U 47.5
Conditions
76°F · 8 mph wind · Rain
Kentucky is worth +6.4 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.
59% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (30–21 home, 15–22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.7 at home vs. away over 74 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 374 miles to get here.
Alabama 45 – Kentucky 17
Called it — picked Alabama to win.
Recent games
Kentucky
- Wk 1Wvs Youngstown State45-13
Alabama
- Wk 1Wvs East Carolina48-10
Trajectory
Conference standings
- Kentucky#160-1
- Alabama#11-0
Alabama handled Kentucky 45-17, matching the pregame favorite.