SEC Ole Miss

Head coach Pete Golding · 2nd season · 8-3 at Ole Miss

Record6-24-2 SEC · T-3rd
CFPNo. 10week 10 poll
Playoff51%to make the field
Nextvs GeorgiaSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · ABC

The rest of the season

One real test left: No. 2 Georgia 43%

Win out 31% · expect 3.1 of 4 more wins

Ole Miss's chance to win each game left, from our model: Georgia 43%, Oklahoma 76%, Wofford 99%, Mississippi State 93%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Playoff chance went from 31% to 51%, peaking at 51% before a game

31%37%W42%W44%W18%L32%W50%W41%L51%W

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 3rd in the SEC · 4-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Trinidad Chambliss 2,189 · Rushing Kewan Lacy 388 · Receiving Deuce Alexander 669 All player stats

The nationAP #12 · Coaches #12 · CFP #10no change · week 10 poll
The model#9 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #16 (+14.7) · FPI #9
The marketGeorgia by 3.5Betting line vs Georgia · our model 43% Ole Miss

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Ole Miss:athletics siteSECYouTube

Schedule and results

Ole Miss · 2026 schedule and results6-2Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 56% · 4 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now. 3 wins over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #12 to #10
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 6#12#61−6.5✗ −3.5Louisville (N)Top 25 winW 41-38 146Ole Miss won 41-38 vs Louisville. Chance to win started at 77%, low 52%, high better than 99%. Loud1-00-0Pass Chambliss 336 · Rush Lacy 61 · Rec Alexander 159
2Sep 12#11#179−44.5✗ −12.5CharlotteW 41-9 119Ole Miss won 41-9 vs Charlotte. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.2-00-0Pass Chambliss 225 · Rush Lacy 87 · Rec Alexander 76
3Sep 19#13#24+3✓ +11LSUTop 10 winW 32-24 143Ole Miss won 32-24 vs LSU. Chance to win started at 50%, low 38%, high better than 99%. Firestorm3-01-0Pass Chambliss 363 · Rush Lacy 43 · Rec Ray 115
4Sep 26#14#17+4✗ −20@FloridaL 28-52 137Ole Miss lost 28-52 at Florida. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 27%.3-11-1Pass Chambliss 298 · Rush Chambliss 44 · Rec Alexander 134
5Bye week
6Oct 10#21#43−9.5✓ +25.5@VanderbiltW 52-17 139Ole Miss won 52-17 at Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 66%, low 64%, high better than 99%.4-12-1Pass Chambliss 213 · Rush Frazier 73 · Rec Alexander 74
7Oct 17#18#22−4✓ +24MissouriTop 25 winW 31-3 144Ole Miss won 31-3 vs Missouri. Chance to win started at 67%, low 53%, high better than 99%.5-13-1Pass Chambliss 241 · Rush Lacy 122 · Rec Cunningham 61
8Oct 24#12#6+3✗ −4@TexasL 27-34 154Ole Miss lost 27-34 at Texas. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 47%.5-23-2Pass Chambliss 250 · Rush Frazier 47 · Rec Alexander 87
9Oct 31#10#46−10.5✓ +19.5AuburnW 45-15 154Ole Miss won 45-15 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 83%, low 75%, high better than 99%.6-24-2Pass Chambliss 263 · Rush Mills-Knight 71 · Rec Fields 73
10Nov 7#9#4+3.5Georgia7:30 pm ET · ABC43% to win
11Nov 14#9#36+4@Oklahomatime TBA76% to win
12Nov 21Wofford12 pm ET99% to win
13Nov 27−14.5Mississippi State12 pm ET · ABC
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Ole Miss, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Ole Miss: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31AuburnW 45-15487132:38+0.20051.7%1.11Blowout win
Oct 24@TexasL 27-34363325:03+0.01935.4%1.45Season-low EPA/play
Oct 17MissouriW 31-3498131:06+0.35848.7%1.25Season-high EPA/play
Oct 10@VanderbiltW 52-17409126:04+0.32556.1%1.02Best defensive stand
Sep 26@FloridaL 28-52426223:01+0.12755.6%0.95Defense's roughest night
Sep 19LSUW 32-24426129:45+0.31143.8%1.44One-score win
Sep 12CharlotteW 41-9420122:46+0.33663.9%1.04Best success rate
Sep 6LouisvilleW 41-38488229:02+0.29346.8%1.31One-score win
Season average (8 games)4401.5+0.24650.2%1.20

Ole Miss's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line8.5 winsover -200
Offense elitePass-first, spreadMethodical, ball-control

Season expectations

Win total2 booksOver/under 8.5▲1 since Sep 9
CFP championship#12 in field+1,800
SEC title#6 in market+750

Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Projected playoff bracket: No. 9 seed

Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

W 45-15 vs Auburn

Ole Miss fans
r/CFB
“That was my thought. Controlled losses so they don't have to play in the SECCG”
3d ago
r/CFB
“Yeah I’m not sure we are the 12th best team lol”
3d ago
Auburn fans on Ole Miss
r/wde
“Another ref show but at this point we should expect to have to beat two teams every week. The first Arnoux PI to hand Ole Miss a free 4 points was egregious…”
3d ago

L 27-34 at Texas

Ole Miss fans
r/CFB
“Even if we lose this, I’m proud of ole miss for staying in it. We weren’t favored, and Texas needs this game to stay ranked. Still praying for a Chambliss…”
1w ago
r/CFB
“Him flapping his arms like a bird only to turn around to the PI flag is peak”
1w ago
Texas fans on Ole Miss
r/LonghornNation
“CJ Vogel: Texas’s defense held Trinidad Chambliss to 25/52 passing tonight. The 48.1% completion percentage is the lowest of Trinidad Chambliss’s career as a…”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7AP #2 Georgiavs Georgia · at home
Fri Nov 27Egg Bowlvs Mississippi State · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Ole Miss has won three of its last five.

7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.

Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
I don’t know what the exact numbers are, but when that first poll came out last year, there were several teams that were in that didn’t make it
Golding · The Daily Mississippian4 days after Ole Miss's 2026 game against Auburn

Playoff chance, day by day

51% now · ▲ 10 points in the last week

060%51%Aug 31Nov 4

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

2 storylines developing

What Ole Miss’s season is really about

The open questionwhere does it go from here?

Power broker conflict2026-09-16new

Pete Golding begins his Ole Miss tenure with a 13-2 winning record, but an off-field feud and uneasy fan belief signal tension beneath the program's SEC success.

What happenedOle Miss sues LSU DE.

Statusdeveloping

Governance shock2026-09-16new

Pete Golding begins his Ole Miss tenure with a 13-2 record and a #6 AP finish, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions if a new identity can sustain a national.

What happenedOle Miss served LSU player.

Statusdeveloping

How past storylines here turned out

AnsweredOle Miss's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.
Died downOle Miss's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downOle Miss's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · Ole Miss · 2026

Ole Miss’ most likely regular season is 9-3. 99% of outcomes land from 8-4 to 10-2.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

7 wins 1%; 8 wins 16%; 9 wins 52%; 10 wins 31%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-5A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.
Base10-3A bowl game.
Ceiling11-3A conference title and a CFP quarterfinal.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Following now · Ole Miss · Developing

Ole Miss sues LSU DE.

The saga so far~2 months old
last weekSEC title odds: +450 to +800 (the market’s chance is down 7.1 points)
last weekTexas LT Trevor Goosby out for season
2 weeks agoSEC title odds: +1000 to +487 (the market’s chance is up 7.9 points)
2 weeks agoWin total: 7.5 to 8.5 (up 1)
2 weeks agoWin total: 8.5 to 7.5 (down 1)
Our read
Pete Golding begins his Ole Miss tenure with a 13-2 winning record, but an off-field feud and uneasy fan belief signal tension beneath the program's SEC success.
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards quiet
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “Josh Pate: Georgia loss to Ole Miss could throw SEC into chaos”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“Josh Pate: Georgia loss to Ole Miss could throw SEC into chaos”
Josh Pate · Yahoo Sports · Nov 2 · read ↗
“Auburn Football Finds Two Bright Spots in Ugly Loss to Ole Miss”
roundtable.io · Nov 3 · read ↗
📣Believers1 bullish items making the case that it's working.›

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Ole Miss WR Commit Alvin Mosley on Navy All-American Honor and Leaving Home”
The Rebel Walk · Nov 3 · read ↗
“CFP rankings 2026: Ole Miss ranks No. 10 in first playoff rankings”
Yahoo Sports · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Junkyard Dawgcast: Final Florida Thoughts, First Ole Miss Thoughts, and Initial CFP Rankings”
Junkyard Dawgcast · 247Sports · Nov 4 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent; the coverage runs one way.›

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet.

💬The boards10% of recent board volume, less than the headlines suggest. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (37%).›

This event was in 560 of 5821 board posts (10%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.

"I think they’re a team that was supposed to have a home-and-home with Ole Miss in 2024-2025, but bought out of making a trip to Oxford the day before the first game in the series?"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"This is the first time I've ever heard Norvell's name in connection with Ole Miss ever."
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board health this week (93 posts): 15% positive · 62% neutral · 23% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

Following now · Ole Miss · Developing

Ole Miss served LSU player.

The saga so far~2 months old
last weekSEC title odds: +450 to +800 (the market’s chance is down 7.1 points)
last weekTexas LT Trevor Goosby out for season
2 weeks agoSEC title odds: +1000 to +487 (the market’s chance is up 7.9 points)
2 weeks agoWin total: 7.5 to 8.5 (up 1)
2 weeks agoWin total: 8.5 to 7.5 (down 1)
Our read
Pete Golding begins his Ole Miss tenure with a 13-2 record and a #6 AP finish, but the program's uneasy fanbase questions if a new identity can sustain a national.
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards quiet
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “Josh Pate: Georgia loss to Ole Miss could throw SEC into chaos”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“Josh Pate: Georgia loss to Ole Miss could throw SEC into chaos”
Josh Pate · Yahoo Sports · Nov 2 · read ↗
“Auburn Football Finds Two Bright Spots in Ugly Loss to Ole Miss”
roundtable.io · Nov 3 · read ↗
📣Believers1 bullish items making the case that it's working.›

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Ole Miss WR Commit Alvin Mosley on Navy All-American Honor and Leaving Home”
The Rebel Walk · Nov 3 · read ↗
“CFP rankings 2026: Ole Miss ranks No. 10 in first playoff rankings”
Yahoo Sports · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Junkyard Dawgcast: Final Florida Thoughts, First Ole Miss Thoughts, and Initial CFP Rankings”
Junkyard Dawgcast · 247Sports · Nov 4 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent; the coverage runs one way.›

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet.

💬The boards10% of recent board volume, less than the headlines suggest. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (37%).›

This event was in 560 of 5821 board posts (10%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.

"I think they’re a team that was supposed to have a home-and-home with Ole Miss in 2024-2025, but bought out of making a trip to Oxford the day before the first game in the series?"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"This is the first time I've ever heard Norvell's name in connection with Ole Miss ever."
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board health this week (93 posts): 15% positive · 62% neutral · 23% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 61 combined points, shootouts

What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2

Game feel61shootoutscombined pts / game3rd highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate2-1some dramain one-score games (3 of 8)8th most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin+13.1competitiveavg scoring margin7th best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo72uptempooffensive plays / game2nd fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.20some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)10th most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd68,180avg attendance12th biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind·Written June 2026

Ole Miss reached its first College Football Playoff and came within four points of the semifinal — then watched Lane Kiffin leave for LSU before the snow had melted, and finished the run anyway.

AP Poll#12 AP

For decades the fanbase heard that Oxford was a tailgate with a football team attached — a beautiful place that didn't win enough to deserve the Grove. They point now at a 13-2 Playoff team and dare…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

Ole Miss · Game-day weather

Typical at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 94, 3:30 pm Saturdays 87

  • noon: 88, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 111 at noon, 110 at 3:30 pm, 109 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Ole Miss is the program that finally figured out how to win the SEC by not pretending to be Alabama.

Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadStyle: Methodical, ball-control
Open questionsOpen: Can Texas overcome its draft losses against Ole Miss?

Active arcs

Cooling
Texas looms as key test for Ole Miss in 2026
Can Texas overcome its draft losses against Ole Miss?
Read the Ole Miss story →
Program ledgerLatest: Fell to No. 12 in the AP Top 25 (2026, week 9)

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026 · Wk 9Fell to No. 12 in the AP Top 25Week 8 · Lost 27-34 at Texas↓5 · from No. 7
  • 2026 · Wk 5Fell to No. 9 in the AP Top 25Week 4 · Lost 28-52 at Florida↓5 · from No. 4
  • 2026 · Wk 4Climbed to No. 4 in the AP Top 25Week 3 · Won 32-24 at home over LSU↑4 · from No. 8
  • 2025 · Wk 6Climbed to No. 4 in the AP Top 25Week 5 · Won 24-19 at home over LSU↑9 · from No. 13
  • 2025 · Wk 4Climbed to No. 13 in the AP Top 25Week 3 · Won 41-35 at home over Arkansas↑4 · from No. 17
  • 2025Lane Kiffin departs55-19
  • 2025Hired Pete Golding

Roster and recruiting

Roster50% of production back, talent #14

Roster reload: Ole Miss

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production50%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#14 nationally247 composite 885.7
Portal Additions28Primary repair: WR
Portal Losses27Primary pressure: IOL
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2)
Recruiting Reload#22Top-25 recruiting class
EDGEin 3 - Blake Purchase4.38out 5 - Princewill Umanmielen5.00Starter Risk
current room: 246 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Versatile Endholds up snap after snap without a weakness to attack
Transferred in
WRin 5 - Darrell Gill Jr.4.50out 2 - Winston Watkins4.12Need Filled
current room: 189 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Deep Threat2025 profilebeats you over the top
Homegrown
IOLin 1 - Troy Everett3.50out 5 - Devin Harper4.25Starter Risk
current room: 316 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 3 - Makhi Frazier3.80out 2 - Trey Hall3.40Upgrade
current room: 206 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Workhorsejust keeps getting the ball, series after series
Transferred in
Sin 3 - Edwin Joseph4.25out 2 - TJ Banks3.60Upgrade
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Centerfieldererases the deep middle of the field
Transferred in
LBin 3 - Luke Ferrelli4.00out 2 - TJ Dottery4.12Upgrade
current room: 220 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Linebackeris steady in every phase without a signature trait
Transferred in
Full roster (123 players)
CBAntonio Kite, Cedrick Beavers, Dante Core, Dorian Barney, Isreal Solomon, Iverson McCoy, Jay Crawford, Jaylon Braxton, John Ross Ashley, Maison Dunn, Micah Stallworth, Patrick Broomfield, Tavoy Feagin, Victor Lincoln Jr.
DEBlake Purchase, Cam Clark, Carmelow Reed, Jonathan Maldonado, Jordan Renaud, Kamarion Franklin, Landon Barnes, Talib Graham, Tre Ellis
DTAndrew Maddox, Jaheim Oatis, Jamarion Owens, Jamarious Brown, Jayden Curtis, Kamron Beavers, Michai Boireau, William Echoles
LBAnt Davis Jr., Bryson Walters, Ford Beeker, Hayden Parker, JaMichael Garrett, Jarcoby Hopson, Keaton Thomas, Luke Ferrelli, Mark Trigg Jr., Raymond Collins, Suntarine Perkins, Tah'j Butler, Tony Mitchell
LSCaleb Blankenship, Richie Bruder, Sean Judge
OLBrycen Sanders, Carius Curne, Connor Howes, Cooper Johnson, Delano Townsend, Emanuel Faulkner, Enoch Wangoy, Jalan Chapman, Joe Koury, John Wayne Oliver, Kane Mankins, Mason Waddle, Patrick Kutas, Roman Womack, Terez Davis, Tommy Kinsler IV, Trey Nightingale, Troy Everett
POscar Bird, Stephon Weise
PKJackson Moore, Lucas Carneiro, Peter McStravick
QBAJ Maddox, Deuce Knight, George Hamsley, Jack Patterson, Maealiuaki Smith, Rees Wise, Trinidad Chambliss, Walker Howard
RBDamarius Yates, JT Lindsey, Ja'Michael Jones, Joshua Dye, Kewan Lacy, Makhi Frazier, Shekai Mills-Knight
SAndy Jaffe, Anthony Robinson III, Cortez Thomas, Craig Tutt, Edwin Joseph, Gerald Lacy Jr., Joenel Aguero, Keon Young, Ladarian Clardy, MJ Preston, Nascar McCoy, Nick Cull, Sharif Denson
TEBrady Prieskorn, Caleb Odom, Hayden Bradley, Jack Harper, Luke Hasz, Michael Smith, Wyatt Smalley
WRAnthony Aguirre, Caleb Cunningham, Cameron Miller, Case Thomas, Darrell Gill Jr., Deuce Alexander, Dillon Alfred, Dylan Davis, Horatio Fields, Isaiah Spencer, Izaiah Hartrup, Jase Mathews, Johntay Cook II, Kervin Johnson Jr., Levi Blount, Samari Reed, Traylon Ray, William Jones
Top commits

Top 2 commits

2027 class
★★★★☆
Keegan Croucher
QB · Chattanooga, TN
#137 national
★★★☆☆
Crews Jenkins
QB · Brentwood, TN
#1636 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

Community pulse

No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 50% of FBS programs
→

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

50th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
50th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
8.5
Sportsbook win total
(79th among FBS)
Market 29pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 2 books
Where voters differAP voters range from #5 to #17 (week 9)
Voter spread

70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #5, Koki Riley (The (Baton Rouge) Advocate), to #17, Murray Evans (Lawton Constitution).

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.

RivalsRival pulse: Mississippi State hopeful, Memphis bullish

Rival pulse

Mississippi State
Hopeful
+10
Egg Bowl
Face-off →
Memphis
Bullish
+34
Memphis-Ole Miss

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

Current chapterThe story this season is telling right now.
FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Ole Miss

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site