Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ole Miss a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Ole Miss was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.
A tight one: Ole Miss bottomed out at 38% and won.
LSU never had better than a 62% chance.
FinalOle Miss 32-24 LSUOle Miss wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalLSU 24-32 Ole MissLSU lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
The four plays that swung it
1Q1 2:00Lacy 5-yd TD run, Ole Miss leads 10-0Ole Miss 59% → 80% (+21)
2Q3 3:05Leavitt 26-yd TD pass to Watkins, cuts it to 24-21Ole Miss 86% → 62% (−24)
3Q4 6:14Chambliss 14-yd TD run, Ole Miss goes ahead 32-24Ole Miss 68% → 92% (+24)
4Q4 0:58Interception4th and 6Leavitt intercepted by Braxton at the Ole Miss 0Ole Miss 76% → 99% (+23)
The four plays that swung it
1Q1 2:00Lacy 5-yd TD run, Ole Miss leads 10-0LSU 41% → 20% (−21)
2Q3 3:05Leavitt 26-yd TD pass to Watkins, cuts it to 24-21LSU 14% → 38% (+24)
3Q4 6:14Chambliss 14-yd TD run, Ole Miss goes ahead 32-24LSU 32% → 8% (−24)
4Q4 0:58Interception4th and 6Leavitt intercepted by Braxton at the Ole Miss 0LSU 24% → 1% (−23)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 11:12Ole Miss fans celebrate as Chambliss leads team to 17-0 lead over Lane Kiffin's LSUIf Chambliss isn’t the best qb in the country I don’t know who isr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:05Ole Miss fans chant insults at Lane Kiffin as Chambliss scores a touchdownQuoted at the top of the page.Ole Miss been waiting in a dark alley all week waiting to beat the piss out of them with 2x4sr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:43SOMETIMES THE GRASS IS AS GREEN AS IT NEEDS TO BE WHERE YOU’RE ATr/CFB game threadThe ultimate disrespect is not even bothering to rush the field against your old coach, lolr/CFB game thread
Ole Miss’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (LSU -3), at 50% for Ole Miss (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Ole Miss or LSU flair (1,209 and 1,337); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Ole Miss’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Ole Miss fans
kiffin“Lane Kiffin looking frustrated on a sideline at Vaught Hemingway Stadium. Actually a surprisingly familiar image”
toddy“Hotty Toddy! As long as you’re rooting for the Rebs you can come hang out! And thank you for the gem of a QB!”
LSU fans
leavitt“Kiffin actually didn’t play mind games. Leavitt looks very QUESTIONABLE as a QB”
throw“He makes that throw but can't hit wide open 18 wheeler driving across the middle of the field 😭”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, back, half, let.
What it cost
Ole Miss’s chance to make the playoff rose from 39% to 49%.
Make the playoff
LSU · lost39% → ▼33%
Ole Miss · won39% → ▲49%
Win the conference
LSU · lost5% → ▼3%
Ole Miss · won4% → ▲7%
Win the title
LSU · lost3% → ▼2%
Ole Miss · won2% → ▲3%
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Ole Miss 32, LSU 24
Ole Miss covered +3 by 11. The total, 56, stayed under 58.5.
Team totals
LSU
Ole Miss
Total yards
330
426
Passing
16 of 27, 158 yds
33 of 48, 363 yds
Rushing
43 for 172 yds
25 for 63 yds
First downs
19
25
Third down
9 of 17
9 of 15
Fourth down
2 of 3
1 of 1
Turnovers
1
1
Penalties
7 for 34 yds
8 for 77 yds
Time of possession
30:15
29:45
LSU leaders
Passing Sam Leavitt 16 of 27, 158 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Dilin Jones 23 for 106 yds, 1 TD; Sam Leavitt 17 for 63 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Trey'Dez Green 4 for 60 yds; Winston Watkins 3 for 54 yds, 1 TD
Ole Miss leaders
Passing Trinidad Chambliss 33 of 48, 363 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Kewan Lacy 9 for 43 yds, 1 TD; JT Lindsey 4 for 20 yds
Receiving Traylon Ray 7 for 115 yds, 1 TD; Caleb Odom 5 for 88 yds
No rain through the game
90° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 68 other games played at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 76°, with about 7 in 10 games between 69° and 84°.
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Oxford airport, 1.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is Magnolia Bowl — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last two games
LSU · 2-0
Rated 31st in our preseason ratings, 24th now.
Two straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Ole Miss is rated 1.6 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: LSU’s success rate against Ole Miss, 66 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
LSU’s success rate against Ole Miss’s defense
LSU offense, 95th percentile · Ole Miss defense, 29th
Ole Miss’s explosive plays against LSU’s defense
Ole Miss offense, 24th percentile · LSU defense, 83rd
LSU’s passing EPA against Ole Miss’s defense
LSU offense, 88th percentile · Ole Miss defense, 32nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
LSUOle Miss
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
LSU leads the series 64-41-4
109 meetings since 1902 · Ole Miss won the last meeting
2025Ole Miss 24-19
2024LSU 29-26
2023Ole Miss 55-49
2022LSU 45-20
2021Ole Miss 31-17
Each line is Ole Miss’s chance to win through that meeting. Ole Miss is 2-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Ole Miss fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (29th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Model · 57%
Line · 40%
Ole Miss fans · 29th
LSU fans · 20th
LSU favored by 3 · Total 58.5
How games like this usually go
LSU by 3, on the usual path until 0:58 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 4.5 points toward LSU.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −1.5 → +3 · Total: 57.5 → 58.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 86° at kickoff.
LSU at Ole Miss · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford
86°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
86weather score, Mixed
2ndbest of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Vaught-Hemingway Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 90, against 86 at 6:30 pm.
Ole Miss is worth +5.1 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 67th percentile.
75% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (39-13 home, 18-20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.0 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 289 miles to get here.
Ole Miss 32-24 LSU
Ole Miss wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.