Louisiana Tech leaped 33 spots in SP+ — 8-5 under Cumbie proves the ceiling is higher than Conference USA's historic-North-Louisiana-football identity suggests.
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Sun Belt · Sonny Cumbie, year 5 (20-32) · Joe Aillet Stadium · 28,019 · 13,108 avg in 2026
LastL 14–45 at LSU · Sat Sep 12 · Alonzo Jackson Jr. 3 sacks, 3.5 TFL, 12 tackles
Nextat Baylor · Sat Sep 19 · 4 pm ET · McLane Stadium · Baylor by 19.5 · series 1-5, lost the last 2 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #88 | #261 | -44.5✓ | Northwestern State | W 80–6 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #90 | #27 | +34.5✓ | @LSU | L 14–45 140 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #80 | #34 | +19.5 | @Baylor | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Army | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Louisiana | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @UL Monroe | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Old Dominion | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @South Alabama | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Troy | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Southern Miss | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Arkansas State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Georgia Southern |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @LSU | L 14–45 | 140 | 3 | 25:51 | -0.281 | 14.3% | 154.3% | |
| Sep 5 | Northwestern State | W 80–6 | 528 | 0 | 24:52 | +0.599 | 46.7% | 181.5% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 334 | 1.5 | +0.159 | 30.5% | 167.9% | ||||
Louisiana Tech is the little Ruston school that produced Terry Bradshaw and a national title — a program that doesn't chase glamour but quietly carries a pedigree most of its peers will never have.
Fans are tired of their program being treated as a footnote — they'll remind anyone who'll listen that the sport's most famous quarterback came from Ruston, and that the Bulldogs have a national title…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-5 · last season
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Warming. 5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Next Sep 19
vs Baylor · away
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Louisiana Tech leaped 33 spots in SP+ — 8-5 under Cumbie proves the ceiling is higher than Conference USA's historic-North-Louisiana-football identity suggests.
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Andrew Burnette sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
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Eli Finley is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
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Louisiana Tech leaped 33 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and Joe Aillet Stadium legacy suggest a return to prominence, but the 116th talent rank raises questions about sustaining.
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Outcome band · Louisiana Tech · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Louisiana Tech enters 2025 rated No. 77 in SP+ (-1.3), up 33 spots from 2024. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 40 of 209 board posts (19%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (78 posts): 28% positive · 40% neutral · 32% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Louisiana Tech is the Conference USA program whose Terry Bradshaw 1968-1969 + 2014 C-USA West Division title + Skip Holtz era + Joe Aillet Stadium define what historic-North-Louisiana-football looks like.
Alonzo Jackson Jr.: 12 tackles · 3.5 TFL · 3 sacks at LSU
Top 1% tackles for loss game since 2021. at LSU (FBS) L 14-45.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
94 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. LA leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Louisiana Tech player grew up 236 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Joe Aillet Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 109 of 112 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
77th percentile among FBS programs
29% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~18% league average.
4 interceptions of 14 disrupted passes (10 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
7 penalties committed, 16 drawn on opponents — netting a 100-yard field-position edge.
65 penalty yards committed vs. 165 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.