The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Troy 50%, Georgia Southern 60%
Win out 22% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins
Louisiana Tech's chance to win each game left, from our model: Troy 50%, Southern Miss 87%, Arkansas State 83%, Georgia Southern 60%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 11% to 30%, peaking at 30% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing1st in the Sun Belt · 4-0 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Blake Baker 1,327 · Rushing Andrew Burnette 365 · Receiving Jalen Mickens 618 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #88 | #261 | −44.5✓ +29.5 | Northwestern State | W 80-6 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Baker 232 · Rush Kukuk 50 · Rec Mickens 133 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #88 | #27 | +34.5✓ +3.5 | @LSU | L 14-45 140 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Baker 128 · Rush Burnette 16 · Rec Mickens 101 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #83 | #36 | +20.5✓ +3.5 | @Baylor | L 19-36 146 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Kukuk 223 · Rush Kukuk 75 · Rec Finley 65 |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #94 | #44 | −1.5✓ +0.5 | Army | W 31-29 126 Roaring | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Kukuk 185 · Rush Brooks 119 · Rec Brooks 81 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #85 | #35 | −3✗ −2 | Louisiana | W 32-31 135 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Baker 319 · Rush Burnette 85 · Rec Finley 114 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #77 | #207 | −13.5✓ +10.5 | @UL Monroe | W 24-0 121 | 4-2 | 2-0 | Pass Baker 178 · Rush Burnette 79 · Rec Calwise Jr. 119 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #69 | #122 | −13.5✓ +12.5 | Old Dominion | W 26-0 136 | 5-2 | 3-0 | Pass Baker 303 · Rush Burnette 63 · Rec Finley 128 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #55 | #94 | −6✓ +9 | @South Alabama | W 35-20 132 | 6-2 | 4-0 | Pass Baker 167 · Rush Hurt 40 · Rec Calwise Jr. 68 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #46 | #119 | −4.5 | @Troy | 4 pm ET50% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #45 | #113 | Southern Miss | time TBA87% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Arkansas State | time TBA83% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Georgia Southern | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Louisiana Tech, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Louisiana Tech: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @South Alabama | W 35-20 | 315 | 0 | 26:37 | +0.201 | 36.8% | 1.42 | |
| Oct 24 | Old Dominion | W 26-0 | 438 | 0 | 39:19 | +0.205 | 46.3% | 1.09 | |
| Oct 17 | @UL Monroe | W 24-0 | 340 | 1 | 31:31 | +0.133 | 38.5% | 1.11 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 10 | Louisiana | W 32-31 | 485 | 2 | 33:18 | +0.210 | 51.2% | 1.31 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | Army | W 31-29 | 503 | 0 | 32:45 | +0.343 | 48.3% | 1.44 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 19 | @Baylor | L 19-36 | 362 | 2 | 32:18 | +0.014 | 37.7% | 1.19 | |
| Sep 12 | @LSU | L 14-45 | 140 | 3 | 25:51 | -0.610 | 14.3% | 1.07 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Northwestern State | W 80-6 | 528 | 0 | 24:52 | +0.599 | 46.7% | 1.82 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 389 | 1.0 | +0.137 | 40.0% | 1.31 | ||||
Louisiana Tech's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last five.
Root for Southern Miss over James Madison
Thu 8 pm · Moves Louisiana Tech’s conference title chance by 7 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Sonny Cumbie's 8-5 season at Louisiana Tech hasn't eased unease — the program's #124 talent rank and flat fan belief signal a gap between results and long-term expectations.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Louisiana Tech · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 6%; 8 wins 28%; 9 wins 44%; 10 wins 22%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Louisiana Tech is the little Ruston school that produced Terry Bradshaw and a national title — a program that doesn't chase glamour but quietly carries a pedigree most of its peers will never have.
Fans are tired of their program being treated as a footnote — they'll remind anyone who'll listen that the sport's most famous quarterback came from Ruston, and that the Bulldogs have a national…
Louisiana Tech · Game-day weather
Typical at Joe Aillet Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 94, 3:30 pm Saturdays 83
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 109 at noon, 110 at 3:30 pm, 109 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Louisiana Tech is the Conference USA program whose Terry Bradshaw 1968-1969 + 2014 C-USA West Division title + Skip Holtz era + Joe Aillet Stadium define what historic-North-Louisiana-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
71st percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Louisiana Tech · 2026