Home Conferences FBS 2026 season

VERDICT BEGINS · 2026

Sun Belt

New Leader

The 2026 Sun Belt season is underway — Marshall holds the early power lead, but the picture is still open.

Sun Belt is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.

#8overall

#8in FBS

+17.0RR50

+20.8upper strength

14teams

0top-25 teams

Sun Belt, at a glance.

Top 10 by power rating — 2026 season, through the latest games.

Team Power Record RR50

Marshall

1-1 +23.1

Louisiana

1-1 +22.9

Southern Miss

1-1 +19.6

South Alabama

1-1 +19.0

Old Dominion

1-1 +18.7

Louisiana Tech

1-1 +17.2

James Madison

2-0 +17.1

Georgia Southern

1-1 +16.8

App State

2-0 +16.7

Troy

2-0 +14.0

Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

New Leader

Texas State went 7-6 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #101 nationally — a +81 coaching premium that gives the Sun Belt its highest SP+ ranking (#20) and its most compelling overperformer. Meanwhile, Georgia State went 1-11 with a #67 recruiting class — the widest coaching gap in the wrong direction. Appalachian State, the program that defined this conference for a decade, went 5-8. The Sun Belt's era is shifting.

0 top-25 teams.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. The gap between the top and bottom is narrow — a sign of genuine parity.

Where things stand right now.

The 2026 Sun Belt season is underway — Marshall holds the early power lead, but the picture is still open.

Tools Matchup Simulator Compare Teams Playoff Forecast Style map Head to head Power map

The New Standard

Texas State Holds the Sun Belt's Best SP+ Rating

Texas State's coaching premium is +81 — a #101 recruiting class producing an SP+ ranking of #20 nationally. A program that was in FCS until 2012 now holds the Sun Belt's highest power rating entering 2026. They went 7-6 in 2025, which doesn't fully reflect how competitive they played. If the Sun Belt gets a New Year's Six bid in the next two years, Texas State is the program most likely to make the run.

Why it matters →

The Decline

App State Went 5-8 — and the Belt Is Changing

Appalachian State won six Sun Belt titles and produced Top-25 rankings that the conference had never seen. They went 5-8 in 2025 — their first losing season since joining the Sun Belt. The program isn't broken, but their SP+ rank (#118) entering 2026 is closer to the conference bottom than the conference top. Whether this is a down year or the end of the App State era is the most important question in Sun Belt football.

Why it matters →

The Floor

Georgia State Went 1-11 With the 67th Recruiting Class

Georgia State's coaching gap is -58: a #67 recruiting class — one of the better ones in the conference — produced a 1-11 season and the Sun Belt's worst SP+ ranking among programs with meaningful recruiting activity. Coastal Carolina went 6-7 with a #91 class (-24 gap). The Sun Belt's underperformers aren't recruiting badly; they're failing to convert what they bring in. That's a coaching story in the wrong direction.

Why it matters →

Active arcs our read

Hot4mo ago

South Alabama's October surge puts spotlight on Warhawks clash

How will South Alabama manage its roster turnover and maintain competitiveness?

South Alabama

Hot2mo ago

Syracuse faces skepticism over its 2026 season outlook

Will Syracuse exceed or fall short of expectations in 2026?

Troy

Active1wk ago

Memphis' Jaylin Carter leads 4-TD rout over Arkansas State

Can Arkansas State recover from a strong opening loss?

Arkansas State

Active1wk ago

Tulane Names Kadin Semonza Starting QB for South Alabama Game

Will Kadin Semonza lead Tulane to a win against South Alabama after the quarterback change?

South Alabama

Active2wk ago

Eastern Washington vs. Northern Iowa Football Game Tickets, Venue, Start Time –

How will South Alabama perform in its season-opening matchup against SE Louisiana?

South Alabama

All arcs →

Fan pulse Last 30 days · 1,177 mentions

22% positive 50% neutral 28% negative

James Madison

275

→ neutral

Marshall

209

→ neutral

Coastal Carolina

117

↓ negative

Louisiana Tech

117

↓ negative

App State

108

↑ positive

Troy

→ neutral

Fan confidence — FBS percentile

Where each Sun Belt program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 83rd percentile.

Bullish–

Bullish+6

Bullish+14

Bullish-2

Bullish-2

Bullish-17

Bullish+14

Bullish-21

Bullish–

Leaning+5

Leaning–

Mixed-15

Souring-9

Souring-32

⚡

Most volatile: Arkansas State

Fan confidence has swung 81 percentile points in the last 8 weeks — currently at the 10th percentile nationally.

The coaching premium

Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value

Above line = coaching premium

Below line = underperforming

Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: Sun Belt teams, 14 programs.

Coaching premium ↑

Marshall

+90

Louisiana

+55

Southern

+47

Old

+30

Louisiana

+17

Underperforming ↓

Arkansas

-60

Georgia

-49

Troy

-44

Coastal

-38

App State

-28

Standings

2026 season, in progress — sorted by power rating. Stature tag = interim Zeitgeist calibration (medium confidence).

#	Team	Record	RR50	Resume
1	Marshall Regional Program I#73	1-1	+23.1	+18.7
2	Louisiana Regional Program I#78	1-1	+22.9	+47.2
3	Southern Miss Regional Program V#122	1-1	+19.6	+36.7
4	South Alabama Regional Program III#96	1-1	+19.0	+57.5
5	Old Dominion Regional Program II#92	1-1	+18.7	+31.7
6	Louisiana Tech Regional Program IV#111	1-1	+17.2	+53.0
7	James Madison National Program III#64	2-0	+17.1	+91.0
8	Georgia Southern Regional Program III#99	1-1	+16.8	+77.1
9	App State National Program III#68	2-0	+16.7	+95.8
10	Troy Regional Program I#83	2-0	+14.0	+81.4
11	Georgia State Regional Program IV#115	2-0	+13.0	+93.9
12	Arkansas State Regional Program IV#109	1-1	+11.7	+58.8
13	UL Monroe Regional Program VI#137	0-2	+11.2	+31.0
14	Coastal Carolina Regional Program IV#106	1-1	+10.2	+60.8

Projected Standings · Sun Belt · 2026

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

#	Team	W–L	PWR	AVG	≥8	≥7	≥6	≥5	≥4	≥3	≥2	≥1
Favorites
1	Louisiana	6–2	+6.4	5.5	4	22	51	78	93	99	✓	✓
2	Marshall	6–2	+6.5	5.4	4	19	47	75	92	98	✓	✓
3	Southern Miss	5–3	+3.1	4.6	1	8	26	53	78	93	99	✓
Challengers
4	Old Dominion	4–4	+2.2	4.4	1	6	21	47	74	91	98	✓
5	South Alabama	4–4	+2.5	4.4	1	5	20	46	74	92	98	✓
6	James Madison	4–4	+0.6	4.1		4	15	39	67	88	97	✓
7	Louisiana Tech	4–4	+0.7	4.1		4	15	38	66	87	97	✓
The Field
8	Georgia Southern	4–4	+0.3	4.1		4	16	39	67	88	97	✓
9	App State	4–4	+0.2	4.1		4	15	39	67	88	97	✓
10	Troy	3–5	-2.5	3.5		1	7	22	48	76	93	99
11	Georgia State	3–5	-3.5	3.3		1	5	18	42	71	91	99
Rebuilding
12	Arkansas State	3–5	-4.8	3.3		1	5	18	42	71	91	99
13	UL Monroe	3–5	-5.3	2.8			2	10	29	57	83	97
14	Coastal Carolina	3–5	-6.4	2.7			2	9	27	55	82	97

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2026 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate

Team	Scoring	Converts	Big plays	Defense	Pace	Pass rate	Identity
Marshall	-0.03	36.0%	+1.01	-0.30	57.5	44.4%	Defense is the problem
Louisiana	+0.31	48.0%	+1.37	-0.13	60.0	40.8%	Balanced
Southern Miss	+0.13	46.9%	+0.96	-0.08	71.0	42.2%	No explosive plays
South Alabama	+0.25	44.0%	+1.22	-0.29	79.0	37.3%	High-tempo
Old Dominion	+0.17	37.4%	+1.53	+0.00	53.5	31.8%	Grind-it-out
Louisiana Tech	+0.16	30.5%	+1.68	+0.09	57.0	40.4%	Big-play offense
James Madison	+0.47	52.3%	+1.31	+0.23	55.5	40.5%	Lockdown defense
Georgia Southern	+0.10	35.7%	+1.31	+0.20	71.5	66.4%	Lockdown defense
App State	+0.39	51.6%	+1.30	-0.11	72.0	42.4%	Balanced
Troy	+0.22	36.7%	+1.54	+0.02	67.0	39.6%	Big-play offense
Georgia State	+0.40	54.6%	+1.13	-0.05	70.5	39.7%	Efficient offense
Arkansas State	+0.29	56.0%	+1.16	-0.23	58.0	40.5%	Efficient offense
UL Monroe	-0.06	37.0%	+0.92	-0.42	65.5	36.6%	Defense is the problem
Coastal Carolina	+0.24	45.1%	+1.39	-0.03	66.5	48.9%	Balanced

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2026 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

Sun Belt's highest CFB Index Scores, 2025 season.

#	Player	Team	National
1	Donnie SmithEDGE	Troy	#7 of 420
2	Josh MotenCB	Southern Miss	#7 of 364
3	Beau SparksWR	Texas State	#4 of 485
4	Justin EaglinCB	James Madison	#9 of 364
5	Cody SiglerIDL	Arkansas State	#8 of 330
6	Boogie TrotterS	Marshall	#8 of 544
7	Camden BrownWR	Georgia Southern	#9 of 485
8	Demarcus HendricksEDGE	Arkansas State	#15 of 420
9	Jerome CarterS	Old Dominion	#10 of 544
10	Jaquez WhiteCB	Troy	#15 of 364

Where Sun Belt stands nationally

Conference strength by RR50 (round-robin adjusted power).

1 SEC SEC

+22.8

2 B10 Big Ten

+21.7

3 IND FBS Independents

+20.4

4 P12 Pac-12

+20.2

5 B12 Big 12

+19.5

6 ACC ACC

+19.2

7 AAC American Athletic

+17.3

8 SB Sun Belt

+17.0

9 CUSA Conference USA

+16.6

10 MAC Mid-American

+16.2

Sun Belt title odds

Best available American odds · sportsbook consensus.

#	Team	Odds
1	James Madison	+280
2	Old Dominion	+470
3	Louisiana	+770
4	Marshall	+850
5	Louisiana Tech	+850
6	Troy	+900
7	Appalachian State	+750
8	Arkansas State	+1200
9	South Alabama	+1300
10	Georgia Southern	+1500