The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Louisiana Tech 50%
Win out 2% · expect 1.6 of 4 more wins
Troy's chance to win each game left, from our model: Louisiana Tech 50%, South Alabama 38%, Georgia Southern 31%, Arkansas State 41%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 5% to 3%, peaking at 13% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Sun Belt · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Will Crowder 1,162 · Rushing Gavin Griffin 436 · Receiving TK Keyes 282 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #113 | #165 | −15.5✗ −12.5 | Sam Houston | W 24-21 136 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Crowder 165 · Rush Griffin 81 · Rec Keyes 48 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #118 | #128 | −23.5✗ −6.5 | Alabama State | W 34-17 126 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Crowder 201 · Rush Merriweather 127 · Rec Keyes 119 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #119 | #39 | +26.5✓ +16.5 | @Missouri | L 17-27 119 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Crowder 230 · Rush Griffin 56 · Rec Keyes 83 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #113 | #55 | +3✗ −8 | @Utah State | L 10-21 139 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Crowder 226 · Rush Griffin 66 · Rec White 75 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 6 | #114 | #90 | −9.5✓ +11.5 | Southern Miss | W 55-34 146 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Crowder 225 · Rush Crowder 145 · Rec Lovett 53 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #101 | #38 | +3✗ −24 | @Louisiana | L 6-33 126 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Kilcrease 76 · Rush Lovett 50 · Rec Petty 69 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #111 | #225 | −13.5✗ −20.5 | UL Monroe | L 14-21 126 | 3-4 | 1-2 | Pass Crowder 50 · Rush Lovett 70 · Rec Lott 32 |
| 9 | Oct 29 | #131 | #41 | +17.5✓ +20.5 | @James Madison | W 24-21 153 Loud | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Kilcrease 179 · Rush Merriweather 84 · Rec White 64 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #119 | #46 | +4.5 | Louisiana Tech | 4 pm ET50% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #114 | #100 | @South Alabama | time TBA38% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Georgia Southern | time TBA31% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Arkansas State | 3 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Troy, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Troy: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | @James Madison | W 24-21 | 349 | 1 | 32:35 | -0.244 | 31.2% | 1.13 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | UL Monroe | L 14-21 | 200 | 2 | 32:51 | -0.110 | 27.7% | 0.95 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @Louisiana | L 6-33 | 267 | 2 | 23:21 | -0.181 | 32.1% | 1.12 | |
| Oct 6 | Southern Miss | W 55-34 | 662 | 0 | 39:22 | +0.501 | 59.3% | 1.15 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Utah State | L 10-21 | 395 | 3 | 34:16 | -0.151 | 42.0% | 1.04 | |
| Sep 19 | @Missouri | L 17-27 | 323 | 2 | 37:23 | -0.090 | 36.1% | 1.25 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | Alabama State | W 34-17 | 427 | 0 | 32:55 | +0.209 | 40.0% | 1.42 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | Sam Houston | W 24-21 | 342 | 0 | 29:09 | +0.157 | 33.3% | 1.66 | Most explosive |
| Season average (8 games) | 371 | 1.2 | +0.011 | 37.7% | 1.22 | ||||
Troy's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and won the last one.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Troy Sun Belt championship odds shortened, from 6.9% to 11.1% (up 4.2 points) between Oct 13 and Oct 15, 2026.
Statusbackground
Range of outcomes · Troy · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 12%; 5 wins 35%; 6 wins 35%; 7 wins 15%; 8 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Troy is the little Alabama school that walks into Death Valley and beats LSU — a Sun Belt power that expects to win its league, and spent 2025 one step short, falling in the conference title game after a four-win turnaround.
Troy's whole self-image is built on one thing: walking into an SEC stadium as a heavy underdog and winning. Fans believe the big Alabama programs and the national media see Troy as a paycheck…
Troy · Game-day weather
Typical at Veterans Memorial Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon Saturdays 81
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 110 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Troy is the Sun Belt program whose 2017 11-2 + Dollar General Bowl championship + 2022 12-2 New Mexico Bowl championship define what Alabama-Sun-Belt-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2020
96th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Troy · 2026