money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Peyton Higgins is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Troy
2-0Latest
Sun Belt · Gerad Parker, year 3 (14-14) · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 30,000 · 25,495 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#107 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #106 (-11.4) · FPI #104
The marketMissouri by 26.5at Missouri · our model 15% Troy · a number, not a pick
LastW 34–17 vs Alabama State · Sat Sep 12 · Jaheim Merriweather 127 rush yds, 3 TD, 3 rec yds
Nextat Missouri · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · Memorial Stadium · Missouri by 26.5 · series 1-3, lost the last 2 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Troy · 2026 schedule & results2-0
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #113 | #165 | -16.5✗ | Sam Houston | W 24–21 136 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #121 | #129 | -23.5✗ | Alabama State | W 34–17 126 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #122 | #39 | +26.5 | @Missouri | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #122 | #56 | @Utah State | ||||
| 6 | Oct 7 | Southern Miss | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Louisiana | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | UL Monroe | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 29 | @James Madison | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Louisiana Tech | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @South Alabama | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Georgia Southern | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Arkansas State |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Alabama State | W 34–17 | 427 | 0 | 32:55 | +0.293 | 40.0% | 142.2% | |
| Sep 5 | Sam Houston | W 24–21 | 342 | 0 | 29:09 | +0.157 | 33.3% | 165.7% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 384 | 0.0 | +0.225 | 36.7% | 153.9% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Troy is the little Alabama school that walks into Death Valley and beats LSU — a Sun Belt power that expects to win its league, and spent 2025 one step short, falling in the conference title game after a four-win turnaround.
Title DroughtSince 2018 · 8 yrs
Troy's whole self-image is built on one thing: walking into an SEC stadium as a heavy underdog and winning. Fans believe the big Alabama programs and the national media see Troy as a paycheck opponent…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Troy fans
r/CFB
▲ 11 · 3d ago
Troy fans
Sam Houston fans on Troy
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-6 · last season
Game feel47rock fightscombined pts / game14th highest-scoring of 14 in the Sun Belt
Heart rate3-1some dramain one-score games (4 of 14)8th most one-score games of 14 in the Sun Belt
Margin-0.4competitiveavg scoring margin6th best margin of 14 in the Sun Belt
Tempo66methodicaloffensive plays / game11th fastest of 14 in the Sun Belt
Big plays1.28some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)7th most explosive of 14 in the Sun Belt
Home crowd24,053avg attendance5th biggest crowds of 14 in the Sun Belt
✓ measured from 14 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Troy has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 6-4 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Streak W2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
I think when somebody makes a decision, goes in a certain direction, I think they’ve made their decision
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Missouri · away
PoorStrong
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#101 in field+100000
Sun Belt title#6 in market+900
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Troy · the story right now
9 storylines developing
What Troy's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
underdog2025 cycle✓ factnew
Peyton Higgins produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
underdog2025 cycle✓ factnew
Rara Thomas produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
our readdeveloping
underdog2025 cycle✓ factnew
Tray Taylor produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Ethan Conner is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Peyton Higgins is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Troy enters 2025 at No. 87 in SP+, up nine spots under Gerad Parker — a step toward reclaiming its Alabama-Sun-Belt-football identity after an 8-6 season.
what happenedTroy enters 2025 rated No. 87 in SP+ (-4.8), up 9 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Troy enters 2026 — the 8-6 record and 9-spot SP+ jump signal a shift, but the program's identity still hinges on whether it can sustain success beyond its 2017 and 2022 bowl-winning eras.
what happenedTroy enters 2026 rated No. 87 in 2025 SP+ (-4.8), up 9 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Gerad Parker's third season opens with an 8-6 record, signaling rising confidence in a program defined by past Sun Belt championships and a coordinator-driven rebuild.
what happenedTroy: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredTroy's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downTroy's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downTroy's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Troy · 2026
Outcome band · Troy · 2026Troy's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.
Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6
0 wins13 wins
Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Troy · Season outlook Confidence
Troy enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Troy enters 2025 rated No. 87 in SP+ (-4.8), up 9 spots from 2024. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers6 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 5% volume · mostly neutral
The saga so far~5 months old
4 weeks agoTroy WR granted additional eligibility — Official
May 2EDGE August Salvati transfer commits from San Diego State — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Troy enters 2025 at No. 87 in SP+, up nine spots under Gerad Parker — a step toward reclaiming its Alabama-Sun-Belt-football identity after an 8-6 season.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Troy enters 2025 rated No. 87 in SP+ (-4.8), up 9 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Trojans frustrated despite 34-17 win over Alabama State” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Trojans frustrated despite 34-17 win over Alabama State”
The Troy Messenger · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers6 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Troy off to 2-0 start for first time since 2013 after win over Alabama State”
AL.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“NOTEBOOK - Big Plays Lead the Way for Troy Win over Alabama State”
Troy University Athletics · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Troy Wins In-State Showdown with Alabama State; 2-0 for First Time since 2013”
Troy University Athletics · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards8 board mentions — too thin to call a stance. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (54%).›
Only 8 of 156 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"My dad and I started a tradition last year where we go to one Troy football game a year. Last year we went to the Arkansas State game. Is there one that you guys would recommend tr"
r/TroyTrojans ~ fan take
"Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every FBS team, each with its own writeup. Here's the Troy one ["
r/TroyTrojans ~ fan take
Board health this week (81 posts): 21% positive · 59% neutral · 20% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Troy · Season outlook Confidence
Troy enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Troy enters 2026 rated No. 87 in 2025 SP+ (-4.8), up 9 spots from 2024. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers6 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 5% volume · mostly neutral
The saga so far~5 months old
4 weeks agoTroy WR granted additional eligibility — Official
May 2EDGE August Salvati transfer commits from San Diego State — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Troy enters 2026 — the 8-6 record and 9-spot SP+ jump signal a shift, but the program's identity still hinges on whether it can sustain success beyond its 2017 and 2022 bowl-winning eras.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Troy enters 2026 rated No. 87 in 2025 SP+ (-4.8), up 9 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Trojans frustrated despite 34-17 win over Alabama State” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Trojans frustrated despite 34-17 win over Alabama State”
The Troy Messenger · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers6 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Troy off to 2-0 start for first time since 2013 after win over Alabama State”
AL.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“NOTEBOOK - Big Plays Lead the Way for Troy Win over Alabama State”
Troy University Athletics · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Troy Wins In-State Showdown with Alabama State; 2-0 for First Time since 2013”
Troy University Athletics · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards8 board mentions — too thin to call a stance. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (54%).›
Only 8 of 156 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"My dad and I started a tradition last year where we go to one Troy football game a year. Last year we went to the Arkansas State game. Is there one that you guys would recommend tr"
r/TroyTrojans ~ fan take
"Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every FBS team, each with its own writeup. Here's the Troy one ["
r/TroyTrojans ~ fan take
Board health this week (81 posts): 21% positive · 59% neutral · 20% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Rival pulse
South Alabama
Hopeful+18
Battle for the Belt
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Troy is the Sun Belt program whose 2017 11-2 + Dollar General Bowl championship + 2022 12-2 New Mexico Bowl championship define what Alabama-Sun-Belt-football looks like.
Offense: PoorDefense: Strong
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Troy
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production35%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#96 nationally247 composite 596.2
Portal Additions14Primary repair: K
Portal Losses27Primary pressure: IOL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#76Depth class
Full roster (105 players)
CBJabari Strait, Jaxon Penn, Jermaine Mccree, Jonathan Pennix, Jordan Turner, Marlin Odom, Shemar Welch, Tai Terrell
DTJaxon Villegez-Williams, Jermaine Paramore, Kam Curry, Kendall Roseberry, Miquon Merriweather, RJ Shamberger, RaKeem Davis, Ty Clemons
LBBryce Steele, DayDay Nelson, Doug Nelson, Gavyn Baker, JT Alvis, Jeremiah Roux, Jordan Perry, KD Reynolds, Keno Jones, Keyshawn Campbell, Luke Hodge, Ronald Wilder, TJ Thompson
OLAntwone Breland, Caleb Ash, Corey Dudley, Darion Rivers, Elijah Prather, Gavin Bowlin, Jatorian Blackmon, Jordon Jones, Luke Petit, Noah Mercer, Parks Glaze, Patrick Screws Jr., Sharvon Pierre, Tra'jon Townsend, Trinton Pritchett, Tyler Bell, Tyler Cappi
RBAC Walters, Bryce Burgess, DeWhitt Betterson Jr., Dennis Palmer, Gavin Griffin, Jaheim Merriweather, Jordan Lovett, Marquez Dortch
SAntonious Steele, Daivon Nelson, Hank James, Jamarion Keyes, Joe Lott, Jon Bocchino, Justin Powe, Keivay Foster, Knai Cook, Marcus Goree Jr., OJ Vaughan Jr.
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Troy
4 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Troy WR granted additional eligibility
A WR room that already had Sun Belt experience just bought another year of it — Parker's depth class ranks 76th nationally, so keeping proven production in-house beats chasing portal lottery tickets.
- Portal
EDGE August Salvati transfer commits from San Diego State
EDGE room bled 6 out and only added 4 — with DJ Jackson Jr. gone and starter-risk still flagged, Salvati's MWC tape makes him the most ready body Parker's brought in to close that gap.
- Recruiting
Kaiden James commits to Troy
Parker's IOL depth class gets another piece — #76 nationally isn't glamorous, but James fills the interior pressure point that's been the label on this roster all spring.
- Recruiting
Ricardo Parker commits to Troy
IOL pressure was the label on this class before Parker signed — 'Bam' at interior line depth is Gerad Parker patching a room that needed bodies, not just headlines.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-10.3 net portal points
(raw ledger: -40.6 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR-15.0
starter risk
IOL-7.8
starter risk
RB-3.7
EDGE-3.6
S-3.6
TE-3.5
low confidence
OT+3.1
DL-3.1
K-1.3
CB-1.2
QB-1.0
low confidence
LB+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Keivay Foster
#833 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Noreel White
#30 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Dontaye Bush
#1308 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 10 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
36
AL · 12MS · 10GA · 5LA · 4FL · 1KY · 1NJ · 1SC · 1+1 more
AL leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
116 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.
That is 9.2% of every high-school FBS signee AL produced over those cycles — the biggest share any program takes — Auburn is next. The full map →
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Troy player grew up 204 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
22nd-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%140–386 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi12%12 of 99 players
Farthest1,871 miTra'jon Townsend · Los Angeles, CA
Closest1 miJywon Boyd · Troy, AL
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL). Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 99 of 105 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Troy Defeats Buffalo 21-17
[Postgame Thread] Troy Defeats ULM 37-14
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Belief history
↑
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
87th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
87th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(45th among FBS)
(45th among FBS)
Fans 42pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
Penalties
Penalty battle
Losing the penalty battle: 18 penalties committed vs. 10 drawn on opponents, a 110-yard deficit.
175 penalty yards committed vs. 65 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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