program_outlookthis cycle✓ factnew
Arkansas State enters 2026 rated No. 100 in 2025 SP+ (-8.8).
our readbackground
Arkansas State
1-1Latest
Sun Belt · Butch Jones, year 6 (27-38) · Centennial Bank Stadium · 30,382 · 16,678 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#129 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #120 (-15.1) · FPI #105
The marketTCU by 20at TCU · our model 13% Arkansas State · a number, not a pick
LastW 52–7 vs West Georgia · Sat Sep 12 · Robert Stevens 1 TFL, 1 INT, 6 tackles
Nextat TCU · Sat Sep 19 · 8 pm ET · Amon G. Carter Stadium · TCU by 20 · series 0-2, lost the last 2 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Arkansas State · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #160 | #100 | +10.5✗ | @Memphis | L 24–42 122 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #161 | #214 | -31.5✓ | West Georgia | W 52–7 115 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 20 | #156 | #53 | +20 | @TCU | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #156 | #148 | Kennesaw State | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Louisiana | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 8 | South Alabama | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Southern Miss | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Georgia State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | UL Monroe | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Coastal Carolina | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Louisiana Tech | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Troy |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | West Georgia | W 52–7 | 391 | 1 | 32:02 | +0.450 | 62.1% | 105.2% | |
| Sep 5 | @Memphis | L 24–42 | 434 | 4 | 30:33 | +0.125 | 50.0% | 125.8% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 412 | 2.5 | +0.288 | 56.0% | 115.5% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Arkansas State won five straight Sun Belt titles and turned its sideline into a coaching factory — Malzahn, Freeze, Harsin, all hired away — a program that built champions and head coaches for everyone but itself.
Title DroughtSince 2016 · 10 yrs
Red Wolves fans say the power programs treat Arkansas State as a vending machine — pull a coach, take the blueprint, move on — and never once look back; Jonesboro says it built the tree the SEC harves…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What it is like to watch them2025 · 7-6 · last season
Game feel53rock fightscombined pts / game11th highest-scoring of 14 in the Sun Belt
Heart rate4-4white-knucklein one-score games (8 of 13)1st most one-score games of 14 in the Sun Belt
Margin-2.2competitiveavg scoring margin7th best margin of 14 in the Sun Belt
Tempo75uptempooffensive plays / game1st fastest of 14 in the Sun Belt
Big plays1.19grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)13th most explosive of 14 in the Sun Belt
Home crowd16,964avg attendance13th biggest crowds of 14 in the Sun Belt
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Arkansas State has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
For a few years, me and (Davis) were the only two Arkansas State Red Wolves in the league, so that was cool. We’ve had a few chats about what went on when he was there, some stories, and how they did things. And we’re always talking about the games and how they did that Saturday
The forecast
Next Sep 20
vs TCU · away
PoorPass-first, spreadMethodical, ball-control
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#108 in field+100000
Sun Belt title#8 in market+1200
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Arkansas State · the story right now
5 storylines developing
What Arkansas State's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
market_swing2026-07-29~readnew
Butch Jones' sixth season opens with a 7-6 record and a 1.0 win total jump — crossing into bowl eligibility as Arkansas State's talent rank (#88) hints at a floor, not a ceiling.
what happenedArkansas State win total rose from 5.5 to 6.5 (+1 wins) between Jul 28 and Jul 29, 2026 (tier C). ✓ fact
the contextwin total up 1.0 — crosses into bowl eligibility territory
our readdeveloping
money down2025 cycle✓ factnew
Chauncy Cobb is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
portal2025-05-31~readnew
Trey Owens arrives at Arkansas State as Butch Jones' answer to sustaining 90% QB production returning after a 7-6 season — a top-3 Sun Belt portal class for a program built on dynasties.
what happenedArkansas State signed a top-52 transfer-portal class — 32 additions headlined by Jax Brown (QB) from Sam Houston and Ethan Crawford (QB) from Southern Miss. ✓ fact
our readbackground
closer2025 cycle~attributednew
Kenyon Clay: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downArkansas State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Arkansas State · 2026
Outcome band · Arkansas State · 2026Arkansas State's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.
Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6
0 wins13 wins
Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Arkansas State · Season outlook Confidence
Arkansas State enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Arkansas State enters 2026 rated No. 100 in 2025 SP+ (-8.8). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The saga so far~2 months old
Jul 29Win total: 5.5 → 6.5 (▲1)
Jul 9Jaylen Raynor named Iowa State QB1 — Reported
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Near-consensus preview optimism means the expectations bar just moved. A season that matches the rating reads as meeting a floor, not a breakthrough.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Arkansas State enters 2026 rated No. 100 in 2025 SP+ (-8.8).
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers2 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“A-State Wins Home Opener in Dominant Fashion Versus West Georgia, 52-7”
Arkansas State Red Wolves · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Red Wolves Live: Arkansas State football beats West Georgia 52-7”
Red Wolves · K8 News | Jonesboro, Arkansas · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Arkansas State routs West Georgia in home opener”
K8 News | Jonesboro, Arkansas · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards13 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 13 of 61 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"I told you so. If Arkansas State can hang 24 on them Memphis is OK but not great. Love my tiggers. We need to keep playing. It's fun."
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Years before the fifth down game Memphis got a quasi fifth down against Arkansas State. Officials blow a play dead on an inadvertent whistle spotted the ball where the play was blo"
r/CFB ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · Arkansas State · Market Confidence
The market bumped Arkansas State up a win. Win totals move for reasons; the books don't give interviews.
Arkansas State win total rose from 5.5 to 6.5 (+1 wins) between Jul 28 and Jul 29, 2026 (tier C). It is win total up 1.0 — crosses into bowl eligibility territory. The coverage is already ahead of this. The fan base is aligned with the move. The coverage runs aligned with the move.
The saga so far~2 months old
Jul 29Win total: 5.5 → 6.5 (▲1)
Jul 9Jaylen Raynor named Iowa State QB1 — Reported
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Butch Jones' sixth season opens with a 7-6 record and a 1.0 win total jump — crossing into bowl eligibility as Arkansas State's talent rank (#88) hints at a floor, not a ceiling.
Next · what to watch
Win total moves are the sharpest signal the market sends in the offseason. They don't reflect fan enthusiasm — they reflect information: roster losses, schedule difficulty, injury reports, and coaching staff changes that haven't hit the beat press yet. One-win adjustments are deliberate, not rounding. Watch whether the line moves again — markets don't stop at one adjustment when the signal changes. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Arkansas State win total rose from 5.5 to 6.5 (+1 wins) between Jul 28 and Jul 29, 2026 (tier C) — win total up 1.0 — crosses into bowl eligibility territory.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers2 bullish/market items -- the case it's working.›
The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.
“A-State Wins Home Opener in Dominant Fashion Versus West Georgia, 52-7”
Arkansas State Red Wolves · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Red Wolves Live: Arkansas State football beats West Georgia 52-7”
Red Wolves · K8 News | Jonesboro, Arkansas · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Arkansas State routs West Georgia in home opener”
K8 News | Jonesboro, Arkansas · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards13 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 13 of 61 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"I told you so. If Arkansas State can hang 24 on them Memphis is OK but not great. Love my tiggers. We need to keep playing. It's fun."
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Years before the fifth down game Memphis got a quasi fifth down against Arkansas State. Officials blow a play dead on an inadvertent whistle spotted the ball where the play was blo"
r/CFB ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rival pulse
UL Monroe
Bullish+37
ASU-ULM
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Arkansas State is the Sun Belt program whose 2011-2016 5-consecutive-Sun-Belt-championships dynasty + Centennial Bank Stadium + Hugh Freeze/Bryan Harsin coaching tree define what historic-Sun-Belt-football looks like.
Offense: PoorRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadTempo: Methodical, ball-control
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Arkansas State
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production30%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#91 nationally247 composite 606.2
Portal Additions25Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses37Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#85Depth class
CBin 3 - Five Hamiltonout 3 - Josh StoneEven
current room: 183 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickel2025 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
Sin 2 - Makai Shahidout 3 - Demarcus BakerDowngrade
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Full roster (116 players)
UNKJames Lee
CBBraden Jackson, Courtney Patterson, Dontrae Henderson, Jaylen Heyward, KeAndre Ford, Kyle Williams, Luke Wisham, Marquis Williams, Noah Flores
DEA.J. Thomas, Donquarius Parker, Gavin Taylor, Lincoln Stueve, Mckinley Mcshan, Nicolas Kalume, Ronnie Blossom, Shaun Williams, Sultan Badmus, TJ Grant, Tony Carter
DTElias Sherman, Jakohri Johnson, Ryan Reese, Sam Hultz, Shakai Woods, TJ Spann, Tavon Bell, Trent Mapp, Trey Bridges, Tyeland Coleman
LBAshton Moore, Daniel Demery, Joshua Ofor, Kam Moore, Keoni Denny, Nigel Nelson, Noah Hamlin, Rasheem Turner, Robert Stevens
OLAiden Kehm, Aleric Watson, Baker North, Cade Channell, Cameron Ambrose, Cape Johnson, Cooper Sherrod, Dan'tay Ward Jr., Gabe Fortson, JB Hoehn, Josh Austin, Landry Cannon, Manasse Itete, Mason Myers, Noah Hacker, Sterling Wiggins, Talan Chandler, Tanner Welch, Trason Hunt, Tristian Smith, Wil Saxton
RBChavel Williams, Corey Reddick Jr., Damon Sisa, Devin Spencer, Ezell Jolly, Kenyon Clay, Nasir Allen, Solomon Baggett, Timothy Carter
SAG McGhee, Brandon Barnes, Brandon Greil, Bryson Ross, Five Hamilton, James Reed III, Joe Drew, Makai Shahid, Malekhi Weedon, Malik McConico, Paul Risper, Rukevwe Eruwetaghware
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Arkansas State
5 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Jaylen Raynor named Iowa State QB1
QB1 confirmed at Iowa State — the Raynor chapter in Jonesboro is closed, and Butch Jones now needs that portal class ranked #75 to produce a starter, not just depth.
- News
Win total: 5.5 → 6.5 (▲1)
Win total jumped from 5.5 to 6.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.
- Coaching
Corey Brewer hired as assistant coach
Butch Jones is leaning into the trenches and linebacker depth at a program sitting 85th in class rank — Brewer's hire is about closing the gap before Sun Belt competition does.
- News
Arkansas State announces jersey patch sponsor
Jersey patch money at a #85 class program tells you exactly where Butch Jones is funding the rebuild — corporate revenue before recruiting cachet catches up.
- Recruiting
Xzavier Pfister commits to Arkansas State
LB depth was already a pressure point for Butch Jones — Pfister slots into a class ranked #75 nationally that still needs bodies who can play downhill.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-2.1 net portal points
(raw ledger: -40.5 — unweighted, no position adjustment)LB-17.4
starter risk
RB-8.9
starter risk
IOL-8.1
starter risk
EDGE+4.4
S-3.6
OT-3.5
low confidence
TE-2.1
CB-1.6
DL+1.3
WR-0.7
QB-0.5
P+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Tavon Bell
#884 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 10 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Paul Risper
#1114 national
★★★☆☆
Ezell Jolly
#44 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
28
MS · 7TX · 6GA · 4TN · 4FL · 3AL · 2AR · 1LA · 1
MS leads the 2026 class with 7 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
111 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Arkansas State player grew up 394 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
44th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%254–554 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi6%7 of 111 players
Farthest1,794 miBryson Ross · Sammamish, WA
Closest2 miAndrew Jones · Jonesboro, AR
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Centennial Bank Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 111 of 116 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Arkansas State Defeats Appalachian State 30-29
[Postgame Thread] ULM Defeats Arkansas State 28-16
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
10th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Market 16pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Penalties
Penalty battle
11 penalties committed, 16 drawn on opponents — netting a 45-yard field-position edge.
97 penalty yards committed vs. 142 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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