The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Louisiana Tech 17%, Coastal Carolina 54%, Troy 59%
Win out 4% · expect 2.0 of 4 more wins
Arkansas State's chance to win each game left, from our model: UL Monroe 72%, Coastal Carolina 54%, Louisiana Tech 17%, Troy 59%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 51% to 71%, peaking at 71% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Sun Belt · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Trey Owens 1,940 · Rushing Solomon Baggett 306 · Receiving Jaylen Bonelli 452 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
Follow Arkansas State:athletics siteXInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #160 | #100 | +10.5✗ −7.5 | @Memphis | L 24-42 122 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Owens 325 · Rush Clay 50 · Rec Summers 98 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #161 | #212 | −31.5✓ +13.5 | West Georgia | W 52-7 115 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Owens 135 · Rush Baggett 70 · Rec Cobb 54 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #155 | #53 | +18.5✗ −5.5 | @TCU | L 7-31 122 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Owens 133 · Rush Owens 58 · Rec Summers 47 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #151 | #153 | −6.5✗ −3.5 | Kennesaw State | W 17-14 124 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Owens 244 · Rush Baggett 63 · Rec Bonelli 78 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #152 | #33 | +4.5✓ +1.5 | @Louisiana | L 20-23 117 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Owens 206 · Rush Baggett 51 · Rec Cobb 65 |
| 6 | Oct 8 | #140 | #80 | −3✗ −10 | South Alabama | L 49-56 130 Roaring | 2-4 | 0-2 | Pass Owens 418 · Rush Owens 28 · Rec Summers 145 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #131 | #113 | −5.5✓ +4.5 | @Southern Miss | W 23-13 135 | 3-4 | 1-2 | Pass Owens 170 · Rush Baggett 48 · Rec Cobb 50 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #120 | #96 | +2.5✓ +8.5 | Georgia State | W 38-32 126 | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Owens 309 · Rush Clay 77 · Rec Bonelli 150 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | #112 | #210 | −14.5 | UL Monroe | 3 pm ET72% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #115 | #140 | @Coastal Carolina | time TBA54% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Louisiana Tech | time TBA17% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Troy | 3 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Arkansas State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Arkansas State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | Georgia State | W 38-32 | 469 | 0 | 31:27 | +0.313 | 44.1% | 1.31 | Most explosive |
| Oct 17 | @Southern Miss | W 23-13 | 304 | 0 | 40:08 | +0.086 | 37.7% | 0.93 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 8 | South Alabama | L 49-56 | 516 | 3 | 31:21 | +0.271 | 63.4% | 1.17 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | @Louisiana | L 20-23 | 293 | 0 | 25:52 | +0.166 | 41.8% | 1.18 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | Kennesaw State | W 17-14 | 363 | 0 | 32:40 | +0.242 | 47.5% | 1.11 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @TCU | L 7-31 | 261 | 0 | 25:26 | -0.191 | 33.9% | 1.21 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | West Georgia | W 52-7 | 391 | 1 | 32:02 | +0.450 | 62.1% | 1.05 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Memphis | L 24-42 | 434 | 4 | 30:33 | +0.125 | 50.0% | 1.26 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 379 | 1.0 | +0.183 | 47.6% | 1.15 | ||||
Arkansas State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last two.
The consistency to execute over drives is something that we have to get better at
Range of outcomes · Arkansas State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 4%; 5 wins 24%; 6 wins 41%; 7 wins 27%; 8 wins 4%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Arkansas State won five straight Sun Belt titles and turned its sideline into a coaching factory — Malzahn, Freeze, Harsin, all hired away — a program that built champions and head coaches for everyone but itself.
Red Wolves fans say the power programs treat Arkansas State as a vending machine, pull a coach, take the blueprint, move on, and never once look back; Jonesboro says it built the tree the SEC…
Arkansas State · Game-day weather
Typical at Centennial Bank Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm Saturdays 85
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 112 at noon, 113 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Arkansas State is the Sun Belt program whose 2011-2016 5-consecutive-Sun-Belt-championships dynasty + Centennial Bank Stadium + Hugh Freeze/Bryan Harsin coaching tree define what historic-Sun-Belt-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Arkansas State · 2026