Next game: vs UL Monroe
Arkansas State’s best edge on UL Monroe is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Arkansas State offense against UL Monroe defense
UL Monroe offense against Arkansas State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Manager · +0.21 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 159 / 233 | 68.2 | 1940 #25 FBS | 8.3 | 11 #57 FBS | 6 | 148.6 | 65 | 51.9 | 7.3 | 6.4 | |
Yards by week → Game managerConsistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone. Impact starter — 233 pass attempts and 61 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Owens keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Bailey is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Completion %68.3% 80th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry3.4 70th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Trey Owens's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.06 EPA/play | 23 | 7 | 68 | 306 | 4.5 | 2 | 33 | 15.7 | 14.3 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 68 carries and 8 catches in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2026 class View Solomon Baggett's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.17 EPA/play | 5 | 6 | 52 | 221 | 4.2 | 3 | 24 | 14.0 | 12 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 52 carries and 10 catches in 6 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Clay just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Knicely is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Weight223 lb 90th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception12.4 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kenyon Clay's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.19 EPA/play | 27 | 7 | 21 | 141 | 6.7 | 0 | 48 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| -0.04 EPA/play | 22 | 5 | 20 | 110 | 5.5 | 1 | 15 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.20 EPA/play | 31 | 8 | 23 | 49 | 2.1 | 5 | 9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.54 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 31 | 452 | 14.6 | 3 | 38 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 31 catches and 1 carry in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaylen Bonelli's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.66 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 31 | 422 | 13.6 | 3 | 40 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 31 catches in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Summers moves the chains on third down. Hinton is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception14.3 59th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 71th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hunter Summers's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.42 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 35 | 382 | 10.9 | 1 | 46 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 35 catches and 9 carries in 8 games, about as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Cobb wins underneath on volume and route precision. Hinton is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Reception volume35 79th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception10.2 bottom 18th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chauncy Cobb's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.75 EPA/play | — | 5 | 11 | 164 | 14.9 | 1 | 54 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.17 EPA/play | 17 | 5 | 9 | 120 | 13.3 | 1 | 46 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Jabari Bush's full player page | ||||||||
| -0.42 EPA/play | 11 | 4 | 6 | 77 | 12.8 | 0 | 24 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.15 EPA/play | 16 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 | 13 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 8 | 33 | 16 | 1 | 0.5 | 5 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — 33 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Elias Sherman's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 54 | 8 | 23 | 11 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 23 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.9% bottom 36th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ryan Reese's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 10 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 18 tackles in 7 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Tony Carter's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 98 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Shakai Woods's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 20 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.8% bottom 9th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View TJ Grant's full player page | |||||||
| 30 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 94 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 34 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 23 | 7 | 37 | 23 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 37 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate13.5% 76th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Robert Stevens's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 9 | 5 | 31 | 12 | 19 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kam Moore's full player page | |||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 16 | 8 | 74 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 74 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume74 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Joe Drew's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 6 | 8 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 43 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume43 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View AG McGhee's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 5 | 8 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Box safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — 43 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume43 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Five Hamilton's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 34 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume34 59th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Makai Shahid's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | — | 7 | 23 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Dontrae Henderson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 3 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.7% 61th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Noah Flores's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 15 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Brandon Greil's full player page | |||||||
| 8 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 34 | 8 | 9/13 | 69.2 | 29/29 | 56 | 48 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 90 | 8 | 26 | 1001 | 38.5 | 73 | 10 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.42 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 5 | 164 | 32.8 | 0 | 82 |
| 84 | 6 | 7 | 131 | 18.7 | 0 | 30 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.54 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 8 | 88 | 11 | 0 | 22 |
Biggest plays from Arkansas State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Arkansas State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 1:31 · South Alabama breaks the tieSouth Alabama scores a touchdownSouth Alabama at Arkansas State, week 6Q1, 1:31 · South Alabama 14, Arkansas State 7100Kickoff return touchdown100Kickoff return touchdownKickoff return touchdownC.Amaya kickoff 65 yards to the USA00 K.Phillips return 100 yards to the ASU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q2, 3:26 · Arkansas State down 4, takes the leadTrey Owens finds Kenyon Clay for a 75-yard touchdownArkansas State at Memphis, week 1Q2, 3:26 · Arkansas State 17, Memphis 147575-yard touchdown pass7575-yard touchdown pass75-yard touchdown passT.Owens pass complete short right to K.Clay caught at ASU37, for 75 yards to the MEM00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Sun Belt Conference- Q2, 3:06 · Arkansas State breaks the tieTrey Owens runs 2 yards for a touchdownGeorgia State at Arkansas State, week 8Q2, 3:06 · Arkansas State 14, Georgia State 7Arkansas State took the lead in the second quarterArkansas State took the lead in the second quarterT.Owens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
- Q2, 7:42 · Arkansas State down 4, takes the leadKenyon Clay runs 1 yard for a touchdownArkansas State at Memphis, week 1Q2, 7:42 · Arkansas State 10, Memphis 7Arkansas State took the lead in the second quarterArkansas State took the lead in the second quarterK.Clay rush right for 1 yard gain to the MEM00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
- Q2, 1:51 · South Alabama breaks the tieJared Hollins runs 3 yards for a touchdownSouth Alabama at Arkansas State, week 6Q2, 1:51 · South Alabama 28, Arkansas State 21South Alabama took the lead in the second quarterSouth Alabama took the lead in the second quarterJ. Hollins run for 3 yds, for a TD (D. Little kick)▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 10:45 · Arkansas State breaks the tieTrey Owens finds Nazeviah Burris for a 54-yard touchdownGeorgia State at Arkansas State, week 8Q3, 10:45 · Arkansas State 21, Georgia State 145454-yard touchdown pass5454-yard touchdown pass54-yard touchdown passT.Owens pass complete deep right to N.Burris caught at GSU12, for 54 yards to the GSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
How scary each game got
Arkansas State lost to South Alabama after being 76% to win; the closest win was against Kennesaw State, down to 18%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Arkansas State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Arkansas State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Arkansas StateJoe Drew leads Arkansas State with 74 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+13 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Arkansas State fields a strong methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Arkansas State reads strongest in success rate (top 18%) and rushing EPA (top 29%); the crux lives in passing EPA allowed, where Arkansas State sits at the 3rd percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Arkansas State is worth +4.4 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 55th percentile of 133 programs
52% at home, 31% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (22-20 home, 16-35 away). Interval ±4.0.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Arkansas State has beaten the number by +2.9 more at home than away over 101 games. That is inside the ±5.7 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Centennial Bank Stadium seats 30,382 and has averaged 55% full (16,744, 28 games reported). Visitors cover a median 385 miles to get here since 2018 — 63rd-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 6% of the 2026 roster (7 of 111 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 51 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downChauncy Cobb is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Solomon Baggett and Kenyon Clay split the carries (70/120 vs 50/120) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Kenyon Clay produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Hunter Summers (WR) and Jabari Bush (TE) split the targets (44/60 vs 16/60) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Arkansas State actually scores
60th percentile quality, 32nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Arkansas State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 75th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 57th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Arkansas State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
85th percentile success on standard downs, 59th on passing downs — a 26-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Arkansas State by half
1st-half offense ranks 53rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 66th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Arkansas State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.18; 71st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.29 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Arkansas State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Arkansas State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (71.0% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 192-play sample) — mid-pack, 125 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Arkansas State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.7% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 136-play sample) — mid-pack, 122 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
80% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.
4 of 5 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
38% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~18% league average.
9 interceptions of 24 disrupted passes (15 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
40 penalties committed, 51 drawn on opponents — netting a 97-yard field-position edge.
372 penalty yards committed vs. 469 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Arkansas State
Most similar programs · Arkansas StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 57°, between 48° and 67° in about 7 in 10 games (34 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 69°, and 8 in 10 ran between 47° and 83° (54 of 60 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.