underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Israel Polk produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
our readdeveloping
Akron
1-1Latest
Mid-American · Joe Moorhead, year 5 (14-36) · InfoCision Stadium · 30,000 · 10,032 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#62 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #128 (-21.4) · FPI #127
The marketMinnesota by 24at Minnesota · our model 33% Akron · a number, not a pick
LastW 45–10 vs Robert Morris · Sat Sep 12 · Cibastian Broughton 227 pass yds, 4 TD, 71 rush yds
Nextat Minnesota · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota by 24 · first meeting on record · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Akron · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #58 | #81 | +27.5✓ | @Wake Forest | L 16–38 137 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #60 | #217 | -26.5✓ | Robert Morris | W 45–10 121 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #61 | #41 | +24 | @Minnesota | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #62 | #101 | UNLV | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Central Michigan | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Eastern Michigan | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Miami (OH) | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Kent State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | Ohio | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 11 | Western Michigan | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 18 | @Massachusetts | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | Buffalo |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Robert Morris | W 45–10 | 523 | 1 | 35:14 | +0.394 | 54.9% | 121.6% | |
| Sep 3 | @Wake Forest | L 16–38 | 305 | 1 | 30:36 | +0.022 | 50.0% | 72.1% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 414 | 1.0 | +0.208 | 52.5% | 96.8% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Akron produced a first-ballot Pro Football Hall of Famer in Jason Taylor and one MAC title in 2005 -- and in 2025 became the first FBS team barred from the postseason over academic progress rate since 2014, a headline that swallowed everything else about the season.
Title DroughtSince 2005 · 21 yrs
Akron fans know Jason Taylor is a first-ballot Hall of Famer who wore their uniform, and that the program has real history -- but 2025's APR ineligibility is the kind of story that travels further nat…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Akron fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 5-7 · last season
Game feel50even gamescombined pts / game4th highest-scoring of 13 in the Mid-American
Heart rate3-2some dramain one-score games (5 of 12)5th most one-score games of 13 in the Mid-American
Margin-5.2competitiveavg scoring margin8th best margin of 13 in the Mid-American
Tempo70uptempooffensive plays / game1st fastest of 13 in the Mid-American
Big plays1.19some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)10th most explosive of 13 in the Mid-American
Home crowd7,729avg attendance13th biggest crowds of 13 in the Mid-American
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Akron has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 5-5
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Minnesota · away
PoorSolidGives up the big play
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#137 in field+100000
MAC title#10 in market+3000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Akron · the story right now
4 storylines developing
What Akron's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Israel Polk is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Israel Polk: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Akron enters 2025 at No. 117 in SP+ — Joe Moorhead's fourth season opens with a losing record and bottom-40% FBS talent, raising questions about progress.
what happenedAkron enters 2025 rated No. 117 in SP+ (-13.9). ✓ fact
our readbackground
Outcome band · Akron · 2026
Outcome band · Akron · 2026Akron's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.
Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6
0 wins13 wins
Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Akron · Season outlook Confidence
Akron enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Akron enters 2025 rated No. 117 in SP+ (-13.9). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers5 bull takes
💬 fans: 7% volume
The saga so far4 weeks old
last weekAkron QB out awaiting eligibility waiver — Reported
3 weeks agoAkron names OC finalists — Reported
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Akron enters 2025 at No. 117 in SP+ — Joe Moorhead's fourth season opens with a losing record and bottom-40% FBS talent, raising questions about progress.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Akron enters 2025 rated No. 117 in SP+ (-13.9).
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Akron 'OC For A Day' contest winner sees drive end with fumble”
Espn CFB · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“See what Zips QB Cibastian Broughton said after win over Robert Morris”
Akron Beacon Journal · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Golf Preview: 2026 Rocket Classic”
University of Akron Athletics · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“The Gophers have uncharacteristic problems to address against Ak” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“The Gophers have uncharacteristic problems to address against Akron before Big Ten play begins”
Star Tribune · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
💬The boards11 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 11 of 152 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"Needed that kick return after giving up the bomb. That was a nice answer from Akron."
r/CFB ~ fan take
"All jokes aside, that was cool. Whims is an accountant. He's one of us, a 20 year season ticket holder. He's all about this team even knowing our place in the sport. Moorhead embra"
r/CFB ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rival pulse
Buffalo
Hopeful+13
Buffalo-Akron
Kent State
Uneasy-20
Wagon Wheel
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Akron produced a Pro Football Hall of Famer in Jason Taylor and won its only MAC title in 2005, but 2025 brought a stranger distinction: a 5-7 season that ended in automatic postseason ineligibility over academic progress rate, the first FBS team so barred since Idaho in 2014.
Offense: PoorDefense: SolidDefensive shape: Gives up the big play
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Akron
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production92%High continuity
Talent Composite#121 nationally247 composite 546.8
Portal Additions15Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses18Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#132Depth class
Full roster (137 players)
CBAlex Branch, Ben Kamara, Dawayne Galloway Jr., Henry Perrymond, Iesa Jarmon, Justin Anderson, Savion Lewis, Zach Hobson
DBAamii Branch, Austin Wondolowski, Catrell White, De'Javion Stepney, Keyveon Johnson, Khory Moss, Mehki Flowers, Rod Smith Jr., Tairan Davis, Terence Thomas, Terry Lee Jr.
DLBrandon Tobias II, CJ Murphy, Cyrus Durham, Dimitri Madden, Eddie Vega, Elijah Davis, Jaiden Brown-Demery, Jasun Ridley, Jon'Trell Mixon, Kam Cheatom, Kiawan Murphy, Logan Hindmarch, Malakai Ross-Graves, Nehemiah Musika, Omari Bivens, Ronald Hull, Ty Watkins
LBDanny Nittoli, Daunte Curtis, Devin Reeves, Donelius Johnson, Dwight Nunoo, Eddie Smith III, Gage Summers, Gavin James, Jason Hocker, Jeremiah Jones, Jude Buchanan, Melvin Spriggs, Rich Benenge, Shammond Cooper
OLAJ George, Alex Fox, Allen Jones Jr., Amarie Archer, August Weight, Brandon Smith, Carlos Slayden, Colin Lyons, Darrell Johnson Jr., Daxton Christman-Gourley, Dayne Shor, Ian Falkner, Jacob Kumfert, Jason Hoskins, Javirea Moore, Jayme Motley-Simmons, Jeremiah Ndaiga, Jon Stephens, Jonas Mann, Jonathan Gould, Lorvens Barthelemy, Max Mobley, Melvin Puckett, Nate Hampton, Nick Stopiak
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Akron
3 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Akron QB out awaiting eligibility waiver
Moorhead's QB room is already thin by MAC standards — losing a starter to a waiver limbo while the depth class sits at #132 nationally is a roster math problem, not just a paperwork delay.
- News
Akron names OC finalists
Nine finalists — including Big Cat from Barstool — tells you exactly where Akron's brand strategy is right now: SP+ is sliding, class rank sits at 132, and Moorhead is betting attention converts to recruiting leverage.
- Recruiting
Remplet commits to Akron
FCS-to-FBS for Remplet, and Moorhead's LB room is the beneficiary — a depth class ranked 132nd nationally can't afford gaps at pressure spots, and Binghamton tape says he earned this shot.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
+0.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: -15.3 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB+10.1
need filled
LB-7.1
starter risk
TE-6.9
starter risk
EDGE-5.9
OT-3.6
low confidence
QB+3.5
low confidence
DL-3.1
IOL-3.1
P+3.0
low confidence
K-2.0
low confidence
WR-0.2
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Semaj Beals
#1358 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 14 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Henry Perrymond
#1566 national
★★★☆☆
Savion Lewis
#1846 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
14
CA · 4OH · 3FL · 2AL · 1GA · 1IN · 1PA · 1WA · 1
CA leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
65 signees across 23 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Akron player grew up 342 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
55th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%110–903 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi22%28 of 127 players
Farthest2,174 miMalakai Ross-Graves · Santa Cruz, CA
Closest7 miCam Macon · Barberton, OH
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to InfoCision Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 127 of 137 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Akron Defeats UMass 44-10
[Postgame Thread] Akron Defeats Buffalo 24-16
[Postgame Thread] Akron Defeats Duquesne 51-7
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
93rd
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
4.5
Vegas O/U wins
(13th among FBS)
(13th among FBS)
Fans 80pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 40% recovered, vs. ~46% expected.
2 of 5 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
Roughly even on flags: 13 penalties committed vs. 12 drawn on opponents.
103 penalty yards committed vs. 125 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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