Wake Forest beats Akron 38-16

Team pages: Akron · Wake Forest

Akron0-116
Wake Forest1-038Final
Thu, Sep 3 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, N.C. · Crowd 30,735ACC Network

Wake Forest beat Akron 38-16.

We had Wake Forest favored. It won.

Next: Akron beat Robert Morris 45-10, Sat Sep 12

Next: Wake Forest beat Purdue 38-36, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wake Forest a 54% chance, and the closing betting line (Wake Forest was a 27.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Wake Forest led by 10 after the first quarter and by 25 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+35+22

Favored the whole way: Wake Forest never fell below 96%.

Akron never had better than a 4% chance.

78-yard TD passWake Forest · Q2 4:57TargetingQ4 10:00
FinalWake Forest 38-16 AkronWake Forest wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Wake ForestWon38-16Scores78-yard TD passTargeting
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Wake ForestWon38-16Scores78-yard TD passTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Wake ForestLowest 0%Lost16-38Scores78-yard TD passTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Wake ForestLowest 0%Lost16-38Scores78-yard TD passTargeting

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Wake Forest’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Wake Forest -27.5), at 97% for Wake Forest (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Wake Forest’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 11:32Lopez 27-yd TD pass to ShanksWake Forest goes ahead 7-0Q1, 11:32 · Wake Forest 7, Akron 07-0score after the play7-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q2, 11:39Lopez 72-yd TD pass to MeeksWake Forest leads 17-0Q2, 11:39 · Wake Forest 17, Akron 017-0score after the play17-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q2, 10:44Gant 3-yd runfumblesQ2, 10:44 · Wake Forest 17, Akron 017-0score after the play17-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 4:57Lopez 78-yd TD pass to HernandezWake Forest leads 28-0Q2, 4:57 · Wake Forest 28, Akron 028-0score after the play28-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q4, 11:49Lawrence 4-yd TD runWake Forest leads 38-3Q4, 11:49 · Wake Forest 38, Akron 338-3score after the play38-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q4, 7:06Roggow 2-yd TD pass to Alexandercuts it to 38-10Q4, 7:06 · Wake Forest 38, Akron 1038-10score after the play38-10score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q4, 0:29Roggow 4-yd TD pass to Myerscuts it to 38-16Q4, 0:29 · Wake Forest 38, Akron 1638-16score after the play38-16score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Wake Forest scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Akron on 3 of its 11.

Wake Forest’s drives are teal, Akron’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Wake Forest: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownAkron: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntWake Forest: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 7Field goalAkron: Punt, from 75 yards out to 51PuntQ2Wake Forest: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownAkron: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 53FumbleWake Forest: Field goal, from 43 yards out to 11Field goalAkron: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntWake Forest: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownAkron: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 10Field goalWake Forest: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 20Missed FGAkron: End of half, from 80 yards out to 82End of halfQ3Akron: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntWake Forest: Field goal, from 69 yards out to 8Field goalAkron: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntWake Forest: Punt, from 80 yards out to 59PuntAkron: Turned over on downs, from 91 yards out to 54DownsWake Forest: Touchdown, from 46 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Akron: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWake Forest: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntAkron: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownWake Forest: End of game, from 75 yards out to 77End of game

Box score

Wake Forest 38, Akron 16

Akron covered +27.5 by 5.5. The total, 54, went over 50.5.

AkronWake ForestTotal yardsAkron 305Wake Forest 559305559Passing yardsAkron 156Wake Forest 356156356Rushing yardsAkron 149Wake Forest 203149203First downsAkron 20Wake Forest 202020TurnoversAkron 1Wake Forest 010Time of possessionAkron 30:36Wake Forest 29:2430:3629:24
Team totalsAkronWake Forest
Total yards305559
Passing28 of 33, 156 yds22 of 35, 356 yds
Rushing36 for 149 yds33 for 203 yds
First downs2020
Third down6 of 137 of 15
Fourth down0 of 12 of 2
Turnovers10
Penalties5 for 35 yds11 for 115 yds
Time of possession30:3629:24

Akron leaders

  • Passing Cibastian Broughton 21 of 26, 111 yds
  • Rushing Cibastian Broughton 14 for 82 yds; Sean Patrick 8 for 33 yds
  • Receiving Marcel Williams 4 for 38 yds; Luke Sivon 5 for 30 yds

Wake Forest leaders

  • Passing Giovanni Lopez 21 of 32, 350 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Ty Clark III 7 for 105 yds; Deuce Lawrence 13 for 52 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Carlos Hernandez 5 for 165 yds, 1 TD; Antonio Meeks 3 for 93 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

94° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the southwest, gusts to 9

Warmer than every one of the 64 other games played at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 74°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 81°.

September game-day temperatures at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Wake Forest favoredAkron favored100%Win chanceWake ForestRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphTemperature and feels likedegrees F80°105°feels like 93°air 87°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Wake Forest favoredAkron favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Temperature and feels like · degrees F80°105°feels like 93°air 87°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:45 left7:03 p.m.
Akron 0, Wake Forest 0 · Wake Forest 97% to win
no rain · wind 5 mph from the south-southwest · 94°, feels like 98°
Lopez 1-yd pass to Shanks
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Winston-salem/smith_(asos) airport, 1.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Akron · 5-7

Rated 58th in our preseason ratings.

W 19-16 @ Bowling Green #189 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

Akron won 19-16 at Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 33%, low 18%, high 94%.

L 35-42 vs Kent State #201 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

Akron lost 35-42 vs Kent State. Chance to win started at 78%, low under 1%, high 84%.

W 44-10 vs Massachusetts #250 of 667

won by 34 as a 12.5-point favorite

Akron won 44-10 vs Massachusetts. Chance to win started at 90%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

W 24-16 @ Buffalo #157 of 667

won by 8 as a 10.5-point underdog

Akron won 24-16 at Buffalo. Chance to win started at 18%, low 11%, high better than 99%.

L 28-42 @ Ball State #183 of 667

lost by 14 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 7-20 vs Miami (OH) #79 of 667

lost by 13 as an 11.5-point underdog

Akron lost 7-20 vs Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 29%, low under 1%, high 38%.

W 28-22 vs Central Michigan #146 of 667

won by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog

Akron won 28-22 vs Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 41%, low 25%, high 95%.

L 3-45 @ Toledo #45 of 667

lost by 42 as a 22.5-point underdog

Akron lost 3-45 at Toledo. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 51-7 vs Duquesne #204 of 667

won by 44 as a 10.5-point favorite

Akron won 51-7 vs Duquesne. Chance to win started at 83%, low 78%, high better than 99%.

L 28-31 @ UAB #134 of 667

lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog

Akron lost 28-31 at UAB. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 29%.

L 0-68 @ NebraskaTop 25 #32 of 667

lost by 68 as a 33.5-point underdog

Akron lost 0-68 at Nebraska. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 0-10 vs Wyoming #121 of 667

lost by 10 as a 4.5-point underdog

Akron lost 0-10 vs Wyoming. Chance to win started at 46%, low under 1%, high 52%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Wake Forest · 9-4

Rated 81st in our preseason ratings.

W 43-29 @ Mississippi State #74 of 667

won by 14 as a 3-point underdog

Wake Forest won 43-29 vs Mississippi State. Chance to win started at 26%, low 23%, high 96%.

L 32-49 @ Duke #60 of 667

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog

Wake Forest lost 32-49 at Duke. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 37%.

W 52-14 vs Delaware #181 of 667

won by 38 as a 17.5-point favorite

Wake Forest won 52-14 vs Delaware. Chance to win started at 91%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

W 28-12 vs North Carolina #95 of 667

won by 16 as a 3.5-point favorite

Wake Forest won 28-12 vs North Carolina. Chance to win started at 68%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

W 16-9 @ VirginiaTop 25 #48 of 667

won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

Wake Forest won 16-9 at Virginia. Chance to win started at 26%, low 10%, high 87%.

L 7-42 @ Florida StateTop 25 #28 of 667

lost by 35 as a 12.5-point underdog

Wake Forest lost 7-42 at Florida State. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 25%.

W 13-12 vs SMUTop 25 #24 of 667

won by 1 as a 5.5-point underdog

Wake Forest won 13-12 vs SMU. Chance to win started at 43%, low 9%, high better than 99%.

W 39-14 @ Oregon State #126 of 667

won by 25 as a 1.5-point favorite

Wake Forest won 39-14 at Oregon State. Chance to win started at 50%, low 50%, high better than 99%.

W 30-23 @ Virginia Tech #78 of 667

won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog

Wake Forest won 30-23 at Virginia Tech. Chance to win started at 31%, low 22%, high 97%.

L 29-30 vs Georgia TechTop 25 #44 of 667

lost by 1 as an 11.5-point underdog

Wake Forest lost 29-30 vs Georgia Tech. Chance to win started at 28%, low under 1%, high 90%.

L 24-34 vs NC State #46 of 667

lost by 10 as a 7.5-point underdog

Wake Forest lost 24-34 vs NC State. Chance to win started at 40%, low 1%, high 80%.

W 42-10 vs Western Carolina #189 of 667

won by 32 as a 17.5-point favorite

Wake Forest won 42-10 vs Western Carolina. Chance to win started at 90%, low 86%, high better than 99%.

W 10-9 vs Kennesaw State #175 of 667

won by 1 as an 18.5-point favorite

Wake Forest won 10-9 vs Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 93%, low 75%, high 97%.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Wake Forest’s EPA/play against Akron, 84 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Wake Forest’s EPA/play against Akron’s defense

    84 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Wake Forest offense, 94th percentile · Akron defense, 10th

  2. Akron’s explosive plays against Wake Forest’s defense

    84 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Akron offense, 12th percentile · Wake Forest defense, 96th

  3. Wake Forest’s passing EPA against Akron’s defense

    76 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Wake Forest offense, 95th percentile · Akron defense, 19th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

AkronWake Forest
EPA/play, offense
Akron · 28Wake Forest · 94
EPA/play, defense
Akron · 10Wake Forest · 64
Success rate, offense
Akron · 39Wake Forest · 80
Success rate, defense
Akron · 20Wake Forest · 36
Explosive-play rate, offense
Akron · 12Wake Forest · 79
Explosive-play rate, defense
Akron · 14Wake Forest · 96
Rush EPA, offense
Akron · 56Wake Forest · 85
Rush EPA, defense
Akron · 17Wake Forest · 65
Pass EPA, offense
Akron · 24Wake Forest · 95
Pass EPA, defense
Akron · 19Wake Forest · 67

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Wake Forest fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (49th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

  • Model · 54%
  • Line · 99%
  • Wake Forest fans · 49th
  • Akron fans · 3rd

Wake Forest favored by 27.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Wake Forest by 27.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 5 points toward Wake Forest.

opened −22.5now −27.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 49.5now 50.5

Spread: −22.5 → −27.5 · Total: 49.5 → 50.5

The books’ cut: 3.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Wake Forest is worth +1.1 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 8th percentile.

54% at home, 53% on the road against FBS opponents (25-21 home, 24-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.4 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 348 miles to get here.

Where next