The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 12 Ole Miss 7%
Win out 1% · expect 1.5 of 4 more wins
Mississippi State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Vanderbilt 59%, Auburn 39%, Tennessee Tech 49%, Ole Miss 7%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 40% to 82%, peaking at 98% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 12th in the SEC · 2-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Kamario Taylor 1,460 · Rushing Fluff Bothwell 563 · Receiving Anthony Evans III 666 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #132 | #153 | −28.5✓ +20.5 | UL Monroe | W 62-13 147 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Taylor 354 · Rush Hill 118 · Rec Evans III 118 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #129 | #34 | −1.5✓ +23.5 | @Minnesota | W 38-13 131 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Taylor 227 · Rush Bothwell 113 · Rec Evans III 121 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #106 | #16 | +3✓ +10 | @South Carolina | W 41-34 140 | 3-0 | 1-0 | Pass Taylor 251 · Rush Bothwell 115 · Rec Ragins 61 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #75 | #36 | −3.5✓ +3.5 | MissouriTop 25 win | W 31-24 153 | 4-0 | 2-0 | Pass Taylor 360 · Rush Bothwell 122 · Rec Evans III 114 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #63 | #10 | +5.5✗ −27.5 | Alabama | L 23-56 131 | 4-1 | 2-1 | Pass Taylor 258 · Rush Wilson 27 · Rec Evans III 166 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #70 | #12 | +17.5✗ −13.5 | @LSU | L 0-31 137 | 4-2 | 2-2 | Pass Puckett 121 · Rush Wilson 71 · Rec Evans III 40 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #79 | #30 | +1.5✗ −6.5 | Oklahoma | L 15-23 133 | 4-3 | 2-3 | Pass Puckett 158 · Rush Bothwell 111 · Rec Magee 65 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #85 | #8 | +19.5✗ −8.5 | @Texas | L 3-31 119 | 4-4 | 2-4 | Pass Swann 97 · Rush Bothwell 49 · Rec Johnson 61 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #92 | #81 | −3 | Vanderbilt | 4:15 pm ET · SEC Network59% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #94 | #54 | Auburn | time TBA39% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Tennessee Tech | 1 pm ET49% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | +14.5 | @Ole Miss | 12 pm ET · ABC | |||||
Win chances are our model for Mississippi State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Mississippi State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Texas | L 3-31 | 187 | 1 | 32:28 | -0.212 | 25.0% | 1.04 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Oklahoma | L 15-23 | 352 | 2 | 26:44 | -0.153 | 34.4% | 1.29 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @LSU | L 0-31 | 291 | 1 | 30:10 | -0.200 | 46.4% | 0.81 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 3 | Alabama | L 23-56 | 302 | 4 | 25:19 | -0.165 | 35.2% | 1.31 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | Missouri | W 31-24 | 499 | 1 | 28:24 | +0.169 | 44.9% | 1.27 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @South Carolina | W 41-34 | 393 | 1 | 25:45 | +0.270 | 42.9% | 1.48 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @Minnesota | W 38-13 | 479 | 1 | 30:15 | +0.437 | 58.0% | 1.07 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | UL Monroe | W 62-13 | 762 | 0 | 28:13 | +0.638 | 58.2% | 1.48 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 408 | 1.4 | +0.098 | 43.1% | 1.22 | ||||
Mississippi State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last four.
The biggest thing is that the culture and the coaching staff and the team all feel right to me
<1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · Mississippi State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 12%; 5 wins 37%; 6 wins 37%; 7 wins 13%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Mississippi State is the program that rang cowbells loud enough to get them legislated against in the SEC — a fanbase whose devotion has never once depended on the scoreboard.
Fans are tired of being treated as the lesser team in their own state — a different school with a different identity, an engineering university with the loudest crowd in the league, told every…
Mississippi State · Game-day weather
Typical at Davis Wade Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 94, noon Saturdays 85
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 108 at noon, 106 at 3:30 pm, 106 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Mississippi State is the program with the loudest cowbells in the SEC and the longest patience with the football product underneath.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
36th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Mississippi State · 2026