The rest of the season
One real test left: No. 16 Mississippi State 51%
Win out 41% · expect 2.3 of 3 more wins
Tennessee Tech's chance to win each game left, from our model: VMI >99%, Mercer 80%, Mississippi State 51%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Jax Leatherwood 2,316 · Rushing MJ Flowers 586 · Receiving Tre' Holloway 587 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Monmouth | W 38-14 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Leatherwood 289 · Rush Flowers 58 · Rec Nunez 118 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Chattanooga | W 24-9 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Leatherwood 161 · Rush Flowers 50 · Rec Sullivan 68 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Samford | W 45-19 | 3-0 | 2-0 | Pass Leatherwood 229 · Rush Ashley 81 · Rec Holloway 124 |
| 3 | Bye week | |||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Wofford | W 42-38 | 4-0 | 3-0 | Pass Leatherwood 427 · Rush Flowers 44 · Rec Weatherly 100 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Western Carolina | L 20-44 | 4-1 | 3-1 | Pass Leatherwood 341 · Rush Flowers 29 · Rec Nunez 225 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Furman | W 20-15 | 5-1 | 4-1 | Pass Leatherwood 212 · Rush Flowers 70 · Rec Nunez 60 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Eastern Kentucky | W 49-20 | 6-1 | 4-1 | Pass Leatherwood 199 · Rush Flowers 108 · Rec Holloway 78 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @The Citadel | W 28-13 | 7-1 | 5-1 | Pass Leatherwood 240 · Rush Flowers 124 · Rec Holloway 128 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @East Tennessee State | W 24-17 | 8-1 | 6-1 | Pass Leatherwood 218 · Rush Flowers 65 · Rec Weatherly 82 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | VMI | 2:30 pm ET>99% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Mercer | 2:30 pm ET80% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Mississippi State | 1 pm ET51% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Tennessee Tech, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @East Tennessee State | W 24-17 | — | — | — | +0.296 | 44.1% | 1.15 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | @The Citadel | W 28-13 | — | — | — | +0.322 | 52.7% | 1.31 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | Eastern Kentucky | W 49-20 | — | — | — | +0.244 | 55.7% | 1.17 | Best success rate |
| Oct 10 | Furman | W 20-15 | — | — | — | +0.096 | 38.3% | 1.11 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Western Carolina | L 20-44 | — | — | — | −0.124 | 50.8% | 0.79 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Wofford | W 42-38 | — | — | — | +0.359 | 55.1% | 1.29 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | Samford | W 45-19 | — | — | — | +0.559 | 45.5% | 1.70 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Chattanooga | W 24-9 | — | — | — | −0.001 | 34.4% | 1.17 | |
| Aug 29 | Monmouth | W 38-14 | — | — | — | +0.105 | 39.5% | 1.12 | |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.206 | 46.2% | 1.20 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last four.
Range of outcomes · Tennessee Tech · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
9 wins 10%; 10 wins 49%; 11 wins 41%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 8-1
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southern teams the same season
Tennessee Tech is 8-1 and hosts VMI next.
Tennessee Tech is 8-1 and hosts VMI next.
Range of outcomes · Tennessee Tech · 2026