Tennessee Tech beats The Citadel 28-13
Team pages: Tennessee Tech · The Citadel
Tennessee Tech beat The Citadel 28-13. Share this game
We had Tennessee Tech favored. It won.
Next: Tennessee Tech at East Tennessee State, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET
Next: The Citadel at Mercer, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tennessee Tech a 93% chance, and the closing betting line (Tennessee Tech was a 18.5-point favorite) put it at 93%.
Favored the whole way: Tennessee Tech never fell below 75%.
The Citadel never had better than a 25% chance.
Tennessee Tech 28-13 The Citadel
Tennessee Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The Citadel 13-28 Tennessee TechThe Citadel lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q2 6:40FumbleAshley fumbles, Fludd returns it for a TD, The Citadel goes ahead 10-7Tennessee Tech 90% → 76% (−14)
The play that swung it
- 1Q2 6:40FumbleAshley fumbles, Fludd returns it for a TD, The Citadel goes ahead 10-7The Citadel 10% → 24% (+14)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Tennessee Tech -18.5), at 86% for Tennessee Tech (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Tennessee Tech scored on 4 of its 10 drives; The Citadel on 2 of its 9.
Tennessee Tech’s drives are teal, The Citadel’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From The Citadel’s side
The Citadel’s best moment: Ashley fumbles, Fludd returns it for a TD, The Citadel goes ahead 10-7 (Q2 6:40). It lifted The Citadel’s win chance by 14 points.
Box score
Tennessee Tech 28, The Citadel 13
The Citadel covered +18.5 by 3.5. The total, 41, stayed under 51.5.
Tennessee Tech leaders
- Passing Jax Leatherwood 20 of 25, 240 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing MJ Flowers 19 for 124 yds, 2 TD; Qua Ashley 6 for 34 yds
- Receiving Tre' Holloway 5 for 128 yds, 2 TD; Eric Weatherly 7 for 40 yds
The Citadel leaders
- Passing Nick Billoups 4 of 9, 8 yds
- Rushing Nick Billoups 10 for 74 yds; Gavin Garcia 14 for 58 yds
- Receiving Whit Hobgood 1 for 5 yds; Gavin Garcia 2 for 2 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Tennessee Tech · 6-1
Rated 115th in our preseason ratings, 121st now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 49-20 vs Eastern Kentucky No. 208 of 668 teams
won by 29 as a 14.5-point favorite
L 20-44 @ Western Carolina No. 173 of 668 teams
lost by 24 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 42-38 @ Wofford No. 205 of 668 teams
won by 4 as a 14.5-point favorite
W 45-19 vs Samford No. 237 of 668 teams
won by 26 as a 26.5-point favorite
W 24-9 @ Chattanooga No. 171 of 668 teams
won by 15 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 38-14 vs Monmouth No. 168 of 668 teams
won by 24 as an 8.5-point favorite
Last three games
The Citadel · 2-5
Rated 203rd in our preseason ratings, 228th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over South Carolina State as a 17.5-point underdog.
W 43-41 @ Charlotte No. 179 of 668 teams
won by 2 as a 20.5-point underdog
Week by week
The Citadel
- Wk 2Lvs Charleston Southern20-26
- Wk 4Lvs Chattanooga8-27
- Wk 5Wat South Carolina State34-31
- Wk 6Lvs East Tennessee State16-34
- Wk 7Lat Texas A&M0-41
Tennessee Tech
- Wk 2Wvs Samford45-19
- Wk 4Wat Wofford42-38
- Wk 5Lat Western Carolina20-44
- Wk 6Wvs Furman20-15
- Wk 7Wvs Eastern Kentucky49-20
Power rating by week
Tennessee Tech is rated 7.3 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
The Citadel leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 1960 · The Citadel won the last meeting
- 1960 · neutral siteThe Citadel 27-0
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on The Citadel’s chances here.
Tennessee Tech favored by 18.5 · Total 51.5
How games like this usually go
Tennessee Tech by 18.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 263 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward The Citadel.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +19.5 → +18.5 · Total: 50.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
The Citadel has been 4.4 points worse at home than on the road since 2018 — worse at home, 0th percentile.
0% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (0-1 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -9.2 at home vs. away over 51 games — outside the ±7.5 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 393 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- The Citadel9th0-3
- Tennessee Tech2nd4-1