The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 9 Alabama 1%, Mercer 66%
Win out 1% · expect 1.4 of 3 more wins
Chattanooga's chance to win each game left, from our model: Mercer 66%, Furman 78%, Alabama 1%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Battle Alberson 840 · Rushing Kevin Lalin 913 · Receiving Ashton Schumann 366 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | @West Georgia | W 24-10 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Alberson 180 · Rush Lalin 128 · Rec Schumann 100 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Tennessee Tech | L 9-24 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Alberson 37 · Rush Wyche 113 · Rec Bussmann 17 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Eastern Kentucky | L 17-22 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Alberson 135 · Rush Lalin 98 · Rec Schumann 98 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Wofford | W 41-7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | Pass Alberson 46 · Rush Wyche 122 · Rec Schumann 46 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @The Citadel | W 27-8 | 3-2 | 2-1 | Pass Alberson 74 · Rush Wyche 93 · Rec Strickland 44 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @East Tennessee State | L 3-14 | 3-3 | 2-2 | Pass Alberson 75 · Rush Lalin 55 · Rec Schumann 54 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Samford | W 19-3 | 4-3 | 3-2 | Pass Alberson 55 · Rush Lalin 156 · Rec Schumann 32 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Western Carolina | W 41-18 | 5-3 | 4-2 | Pass Alberson 103 · Rush Lalin 135 · Rec Crumedy 79 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | VMI | W 24-10 | 6-3 | 5-2 | Pass Alberson 135 · Rush Lalin 88 · Rec Crumedy 124 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Mercer | 1 pm ET66% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Furman | 1 pm ET78% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Alabama | 2 pm ET1% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Chattanooga, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | VMI | W 24-10 | — | — | — | +0.188 | 50.0% | 1.29 | Best success rate |
| Oct 24 | @Western Carolina | W 41-18 | — | — | — | +0.146 | 43.9% | 1.41 | |
| Oct 10 | Samford | W 19-3 | — | — | — | +0.033 | 33.8% | 1.10 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | @East Tennessee State | L 3-14 | — | — | — | −0.122 | 30.2% | 0.72 | |
| Sep 26 | @The Citadel | W 27-8 | — | — | — | +0.256 | 40.4% | 1.36 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Wofford | W 41-7 | — | — | — | +0.194 | 36.1% | 1.42 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @Eastern Kentucky | L 17-22 | — | — | — | −0.172 | 28.8% | 1.42 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Tennessee Tech | L 9-24 | — | — | — | −0.128 | 33.3% | 0.76 | |
| Aug 27 | @West Georgia | W 24-10 | — | — | — | +0.043 | 38.6% | 1.20 | |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.049 | 37.2% | 1.19 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Range of outcomes · Chattanooga · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 7%; 7 wins 41%; 8 wins 51%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-3
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southern teams the same season
Chattanooga is 6-3 and hosts Mercer next.
Chattanooga is 6-3 and hosts Mercer next.
Range of outcomes · Chattanooga · 2026