The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Auburn 3%, East Tennessee State 13%, Western Carolina 42%
Win out <1% · expect 0.6 of 3 more wins
Samford's chance to win each game left, from our model: East Tennessee State 13%, Western Carolina 42%, Auburn 3%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Gabarri Johnson 1,584 · Rushing Ken Cherry 357 · Receiving Marquise Henderson 465 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | North Alabama (N) | L 10-22 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Johnson 245 · Rush Dunlap 4 · Rec Henderson 151 |
| 1 | Sep 3 | Southern Illinois | L 18-22 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Johnson 156 · Rush Cherry 44 · Rec Bird 63 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Tennessee Tech | L 19-45 | 0-3 | 0-1 | Pass Johnson 245 · Rush Cherry 21 · Rec Aukerman 73 |
| 3 | Bye week | |||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | VMI | W 45-7 | 1-3 | 1-1 | Pass Johnson 222 · Rush Russell 60 · Rec Henderson 63 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @UAB | L 14-33 124 | 1-4 | 1-1 | Pass Johnson 140 · Rush Cherry 34 · Rec Henderson 57 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Chattanooga | L 3-19 | 1-5 | 1-2 | Pass Johnson 117 · Rush Thomas 31 · Rec Bird 29 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Mercer | L 21-31 | 1-6 | 1-3 | Pass Gilliam 123 · Rush Cherry 108 · Rec Henderson 54 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Furman | W 13-6 | 2-6 | 2-3 | Pass Johnson 206 · Rush Cherry 64 · Rec Aukerman 68 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Wofford | W 10-9 | 3-6 | 3-3 | Pass Johnson 219 · Rush Cherry 46 · Rec Corbin 89 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @East Tennessee State | 1 pm ET13% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Western Carolina | 3:30 pm ET42% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Auburn | 3:30 pm ET3% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Samford, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Wofford | W 10-9 | — | — | — | +0.134 | 29.4% | 1.60 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | @Furman | W 13-6 | — | — | — | −0.017 | 35.9% | 1.20 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | Mercer | L 21-31 | — | — | — | −0.205 | 28.2% | 1.42 | |
| Oct 10 | @Chattanooga | L 3-19 | — | — | — | −0.242 | 21.6% | 1.44 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @UAB | L 14-33 | 230 | 3 | 26:15 | −0.138 | 35.7% | 0.97 | |
| Sep 26 | VMI | W 45-7 | — | — | — | +0.382 | 61.3% | 0.93 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Tennessee Tech | L 19-45 | — | — | — | −0.135 | 35.1% | 1.17 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 3 | Southern Illinois | L 18-22 | — | — | — | +0.145 | 28.1% | 1.78 | One-score loss |
| Aug 29 | North Alabama | L 10-22 | — | — | — | −0.116 | 19.7% | 2.02 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | 230 | 3.0 | −0.021 | 32.8% | 1.39 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Samford · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 49%; 4 wins 44%; 5 wins 7%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southern teams the same season
Samford is 3-6 and plays at East Tennessee State next.
Samford is 3-6 and plays at East Tennessee State next.
Range of outcomes · Samford · 2026