Samford upsets Furman 13-6

Team pages: Samford · Furman

Samford2-613
Furman2-66Final
Sat, Oct 24 · Paladin Stadium, Greenville, S.C. · Crowd 9,407ESPN+

Samford beat Furman 13-6 as an 8.5-point underdog.

We had Furman favored. Samford won.

Next: Samford vs Wofford, Sat Oct 31 · 7:00 PM ET

Next: Furman vs Western Carolina, Sat Oct 31 · 2:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Ackerley intercepted by Bussey at the Samford 49 (Q2, 1:02). Samford went from 38% to 57% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Samford a 22% chance, and the closing betting line (Samford was a 8.5-point underdog) put it at 25%.

FinalSamford 13-6 FurmanSamford wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfSamfordFurmanLowest 19%Won13-612+19+18Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfSamfordFurmanLowest 19%Won13-612Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfFurmanSamfordHigh 81%Lost6-1312−19−18Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q450% at halfFurmanSamfordHigh 81%Lost6-1312Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 1:02InterceptionAckerley intercepted by Bussey at the Samford 49Samford 38% → 57% (+19)
  2. 2Q4 8:05Johnson 14-yd TD pass to Aukerman, Samford goes ahead 13-6Samford 50% → 68% (+18)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 1:02InterceptionAckerley intercepted by Bussey at the Samford 49Furman 62% → 43% (−19)
  2. 2Q4 8:05Johnson 14-yd TD pass to Aukerman, Samford goes ahead 13-6Furman 50% → 32% (−18)
Samford’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Furman -8.5), at 24% for Samford (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Samford scored on 3 of its 12 drives; Furman on 2 of its 11.

Samford’s drives are teal, Furman’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Samford: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 5Field goalFurman: Punt, from 70 yards out to 63PuntSamford: Punt, from 76 yards out to 50PuntFurman: Punt, from 87 yards out to 81PuntSamford: Field goal, from 55 yards out to 25Field goalFurman: Interception, from 64 yards out to 22InterceptionQ2Samford: Turned over on downs, from 70 yards out to 33DownsFurman: Punt, from 67 yards out to 50PuntSamford: Punt, from 83 yards out to 66PuntFurman: Interception, from 70 yards out to 46InterceptionSamford: End of half, from 48 yards out to 30End of halfQ3Furman: Punt, from 98 yards out to 93PuntSamford: Missed field goal, from 38 yards out to 13Missed FGFurman: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 7Field goalSamford: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntFurman: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 19Field goalQ4Samford: Punt, from 75 yards out to 48PuntFurman: Fumble, from 92 yards out to 89FumbleSamford: Touchdown, from 11 yards out to 0TouchdownFurman: Punt, from 60 yards out to 39PuntSamford: Punt, from 90 yards out to 86PuntFurman: Turned over on downs, from 41 yards out to 16DownsSamford: Uncategorized, from 84 yards out to 86Uncategorized

From Furman’s side

Furman’s best moment: Ippolito 22-yd field goal, Samford goes ahead 3-0 (Q1 8:49). It lifted Furman’s win chance by 12 points.

Too close to call on 59% of plays.

Box score

Samford 13, Furman 6

Samford covered +8.5 by 15.5. The total, 19, stayed under 42.5.

Samford leaders

  • Passing Gabarri Johnson 18 of 26, 206 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Ken Cherry 15 for 64 yds; Domonique Thomas 6 for 25 yds
  • Receiving Cayden Aukerman 5 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Marquise Henderson 3 for 53 yds

Furman leaders

  • Passing Connor Ackerley 15 of 25, 216 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Ben Croasdale 17 for 49 yds; CJ Nettles 5 for 26 yds
  • Receiving Daniel Haughton 6 for 92 yds; Cameron James 1 for 37 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Samford · 1-6

Rated 232nd in our preseason ratings, 235th now.

Three straight losses.

L 21-31 vs Mercer No. 135 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 15.5-point underdog

Samford lost 21-31 vs Mercer. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 20%.

L 3-19 @ Chattanooga No. 156 of 668 teams

lost by 16 as an 11.5-point underdog

Samford lost 3-19 at Chattanooga. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 20%.

L 14-33 @ UAB No. 69 of 668 teams

lost by 19 as a 30.5-point underdog

Samford lost 14-33 at UAB. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 9%.

W 45-7 vs VMI No. 263 of 668 teams

won by 38 as a 15.5-point favorite

L 19-45 @ Tennessee Tech No. 121 of 668 teams

lost by 26 as a 26.5-point underdog

Samford lost 19-45 at Tennessee Tech. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 18-22 vs Southern Illinois No. 147 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 20.5-point underdog

Samford lost 18-22 vs Southern Illinois. Chance to win started at 10%, low 2%, high 24%.

L 10-22 @ North Alabama No. 206 of 668 teams

lost by 12 as a 7-point underdog

Samford lost 10-22 vs North Alabama. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 44%.

Last three games

Furman · 2-5

Rated 202nd in our preseason ratings, 184th now, up 18 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 15-20 @ Tennessee Tech No. 128 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 13.5-point underdog

Furman lost 15-20 at Tennessee Tech. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 18%.

L 25-32 vs Wofford No. 199 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 4-point favorite

Furman lost 25-32 vs Wofford. Chance to win started at 69%, low 5%, high 73%.

L 9-13 @ Richmond No. 203 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 3.5-point underdog

Furman lost 9-13 at Richmond. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 39%.

L 17-20 vs South Carolina State No. 118 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

Furman lost 17-20 vs South Carolina State. Chance to win started at 32%, low 3%, high 39%.

W 20-13 @ Mercer No. 163 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 15.5-point underdog

Furman won 20-13 at Mercer. Chance to win started at 12%, low 8%, high better than 99%.

L 9-56 @ TennesseeTop 25 No. 32 of 668 teams

lost by 47 as a 49.5-point underdog

Furman lost 9-56 at Tennessee. Never had a real chance.

W 20-3 vs Anderson (SC) No. 372 of 668 teams

Furman won 20-3 vs Anderson (SC). Chance to win started at 67%, low 42%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Furman

Wk 2: W 20-13 at Mercer▲7MercerWk 3: L 17-20 vs South Carolina State▼3S. Carol…Wk 4: L 9-13 at Richmond▼4RichmondWk 5: L 25-32 vs Wofford▼7WoffordWk 6: L 15-20 at Tennessee Tech▼5Tennesse…
  • Wk 2Wat Mercer20-13
  • Wk 3Lvs South Carolina State17-20
  • Wk 4Lat Richmond9-13
  • Wk 5Lvs Wofford25-32
  • Wk 6Lat Tennessee Tech15-20

Samford

Wk 2: L 19-45 at Tennessee Tech▼26Tennesse…Wk 4: W 45-7 vs VMI▲38VMIWk 5: L 14-33 at UAB▼19UABWk 6: L 3-19 at Chattanooga▼16Chattano…Wk 7: L 21-31 vs Mercer▼10Mercer
  • Wk 2Lat Tennessee Tech19-45
  • Wk 4Wvs VMI45-7
  • Wk 5Lat UAB14-33
  • Wk 6Lat Chattanooga3-19
  • Wk 7Lvs Mercer21-31

Power rating by week

Furman is rated 2.7 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7-9-11Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7FurmanSamford

The series

The series is tied 12-12-1

25 meetings since 1961 · Furman won the last meeting

Furman wonSamford won1961: Furman by 71962: Samford by 71966: Samford by 101967: Samford by 141968: Samford by 51969: Samford by 202004: Furman by 352005: Furman by 222008: Furman by 12009: Furman by 22010: Furman by 172011: Samford by 52012: Samford by 32013: Furman by 182014: Samford by 452015: Furman by 32016: Samford by 172017: Samford by 62018: Samford by 132019: Furman by 442021: Furman by 72022: Samford by 72023: Furman by 62024: tie2025: Furman by 1819612025
  • 2025Furman 31-13
  • 2024Tie 0-0
  • 2023Furman 27-21
  • 2022Samford 34-27
  • 2021Furman 41-34

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Furman’s chances here.

50-50Model 78% · Line 75%SamfordFurman

Furman favored by 8.5 · Total 42.5

How games like this usually go

Furman by 8.5, on the usual path until 9:41 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Samford.

opened −9.5now −8.5

The total fell 3 points.

opened 45.5now 42.5

Spread: −9.5 → −8.5 · Total: 45.5 → 42.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 10% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 1-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.0 at home vs. away over 58 games — inside the ±7.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 269 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.