The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Tennessee Tech 20%, Chattanooga 34%, East Tennessee State 46%
Win out 3% · expect 1.0 of 3 more wins
Mercer's chance to win each game left, from our model: Chattanooga 34%, Tennessee Tech 20%, East Tennessee State 46%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Jaylen King 859 · Rushing Devon Caldwell 576 · Receiving Brayden Smith 649 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | East Texas A&M | W 23-15 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass King 177 · Rush Palode-Gary 87 · Rec Smith 131 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Presbyterian | W 62-3 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass King 236 · Rush Caldwell 152 · Rec Smith 132 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Furman | L 13-20 | 2-1 | 0-1 | Pass King 196 · Rush Palode-Gary 87 · Rec Solomon 120 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Georgia Tech | L 11-44 122 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Pickles 82 · Rush Palode-Gary 71 · Rec Smith 58 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Abilene Christian | W 34-17 | 3-2 | 0-1 | Pass Pickles 77 · Rush Caldwell 132 · Rec Smith 68 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @VMI | W 54-3 | 4-2 | 1-1 | Pass King 202 · Rush Palode-Gary 130 · Rec Smith 58 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Western Carolina | W 17-14 | 5-2 | 2-1 | Pass Pickles 132 · Rush Caldwell 71 · Rec Palode-Gary 63 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Samford | W 31-21 | 6-2 | 3-1 | Pass Pickles 108 · Rush Caldwell 134 · Rec Solomon 37 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | The Citadel | W 28-19 | 7-2 | 4-1 | Pass Pickles 234 · Rush Pickles 46 · Rec Smith 113 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Chattanooga | 1 pm ET34% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Tennessee Tech | 2:30 pm ET20% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | East Tennessee State | 3 pm ET46% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Mercer, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | The Citadel | W 28-19 | — | — | — | +0.286 | 41.7% | 1.50 | |
| Oct 17 | @Samford | W 31-21 | — | — | — | +0.230 | 40.3% | 1.03 | |
| Oct 10 | Western Carolina | W 17-14 | — | — | — | −0.059 | 42.3% | 1.02 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @VMI | W 54-3 | — | — | — | +0.407 | 48.0% | 1.33 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | @Abilene Christian | W 34-17 | — | — | — | +0.264 | 44.1% | 1.05 | |
| Sep 19 | @Georgia Tech | L 11-44 | 290 | 2 | 32:42 | +0.044 | 41.9% | 0.97 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | Furman | L 13-20 | — | — | — | −0.234 | 31.6% | 1.32 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Presbyterian | W 62-3 | — | — | — | +0.867 | 50.0% | 2.03 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | East Texas A&M | W 23-15 | — | — | — | +0.188 | 35.4% | 1.34 | One-score win |
| Season average (9 games) | 290 | 2.0 | +0.221 | 41.7% | 1.29 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last five.
Range of outcomes · Mercer · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 29%; 8 wins 46%; 9 wins 22%; 10 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southern teams the same season
Mercer is 7-2 and plays at Chattanooga next.
Mercer is 7-2 and plays at Chattanooga next.
Range of outcomes · Mercer · 2026