Mercer beats Abilene Christian 34-17

Mercer3-234
Abilene Christian1-417Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Wildcat Stadium (TX), Abilene, Texas · Crowd 10,744ESPN+

Mercer beat Abilene Christian 34-17.

We had Abilene Christian favored. Mercer won.

Next: Mercer beat VMI 54-3, Sat Oct 3

Next: Abilene Christian beat West Florida 35-7, Sat Oct 3

Box score

Mercer 34, Abilene Christian 17

Mercer covered +3.5 by 20.5. The total, 51, went over 48.5.

Mercer leaders

  • Passing JP Pickles 8 of 11, 77 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Devon Caldwell 23 for 132 yds; JP Pickles 18 for 130 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Brayden Smith 6 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Eric Rasheed 1 for 8 yds

Abilene Christian leaders

  • Passing Tucker Parks 16 of 28, 195 yds, 3 INT
  • Rushing Rovaughn Banks Jr. 11 for 92 yds; Tucker Parks 16 for 85 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Raydrian Baltrip 4 for 79 yds; Dallas Dudley 3 for 47 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Mercer · 2-2

Rated 169th in our preseason ratings, 169th now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 13-20 vs Furman #201 of 668

lost by 7 as a 15.5-point favorite

Mercer lost 13-20 vs Furman. Chance to win started at 88%, low under 1%, high 92%.

W 23-15 vs East Texas A&M #240 of 668

won by 8 as a 22.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Abilene Christian · 1-3

Rated 112th in our preseason ratings, 130th now.

1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Week by week

Abilene Christian

Wk 1: L 14-21 at Lamar▼7LamarWk 1: L 10-33 at Texas Tech▼23Texas TechWk 2: L 7-26 vs Stephen F. Austin▼19Stephen F.…Wk 3: W 41-39 at Idaho▲2Idaho
  • Wk 1Lat Lamar14-21
  • Wk 1Lat Texas Tech10-33
  • Wk 2Lvs Stephen F. Austin7-26
  • Wk 3Wat Idaho41-39

Mercer

Wk 1: W 23-15 vs East Texas A&M▲8E. Texas A&MWk 1: W 62-3 vs Presbyterian▲59PresbyterianWk 2: L 13-20 vs Furman▼7FurmanWk 3: L 11-44 at Georgia Tech▼33Georgia Tech
  • Wk 1Wvs East Texas A&M23-15
  • Wk 1Wvs Presbyterian62-3
  • Wk 2Lvs Furman13-20
  • Wk 3Lat Georgia Tech11-44

Power rating by week

Abilene Christian is rated 2.7 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-6-9Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Abilene ChristianMercer

The series

Abilene Christian leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2020 · Abilene Christian won the last meeting

  • 2020Abilene Christian 20-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Abilene Christian’s chances here.

50-50Model · 73%Line · 61%MercerAbilene Christian

Abilene Christian favored by 3.5 · Total 48.5

The market

The total fell 1 point.

opened 49.5now 48.5

Total: 49.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Abilene Christian has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.2 points (±5.6), home against road — 1st percentile of FBS.

0% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 2-16 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.6 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±7.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 934 miles to get here.

Where next