The rest of the season
One real test left: Baylor 50%
Win out 27% · expect 2.9 of 4 more wins
Texas Tech's chance to win each game left, from our model: West Virginia 85%, Oklahoma State 82%, Baylor 50%, TCU 77%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 63% to 43%, peaking at 63% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 2nd in the Big 12 · 4-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Will Hammond 1,561 · Rushing J'Koby Williams 794 · Receiving Kenny Johnson 548 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Texas Tech:athletics siteBig 12XYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #7 | #112 | −45.5✗ −22.5 | Abilene Christian | W 33-10 134 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hammond 298 · Rush Williams 71 · Rec Johnson 76 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #7 | #67 | −25.5✗ −14.5 | @Oregon State | W 35-24 145 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hammond 189 · Rush Williams 116 · Rec Eakin 79 |
| 3 | Sep 18 | #8 | #23 | −7.5✗ −5.5 | HoustonTop 25 win | W 28-26 135 Loud | 3-0 | 1-0 | Pass Hammond 257 · Rush Dickey 65 · Rec Johnson 113 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #7 | #141 | −34.5✓ +0.5 | Sam Houston | W 49-14 131 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Hammond 224 · Rush Dickey 91 · Rec Johnson 60 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #9 | #119 | −13.5✓ +8.5 | @Colorado | W 29-7 143 | 5-0 | 2-0 | Pass Hammond 134 · Rush Williams 88 · Rec Carter 67 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #9 | #68 | −16.5✓ +11.5 | Arizona State | W 53-25 136 | 6-0 | 3-0 | Pass Hammond 232 · Rush Williams 165 · Rec Johnson 120 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #9 | #87 | −10.5✗ −23.5 | @Cincinnati | L 24-37 146 | 6-1 | 3-1 | Pass Hammond 227 · Rush Williams 81 · Rec Johnson 81 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #13 | #15 | −4✓ +4 | ArizonaTop 25 win | W 34-26 147 | 7-1 | 4-1 | Pass Castellanos 144 · Rush Williams 175 · Rec Johnson 49 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #13 | #129 | −17.5 | West Virginia | 9:30 pm ET · ESPN85% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #12 | #81 | −15.5 | @Oklahoma State | time TBA82% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Baylor | time TBA50% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 26 | −16.5 | TCU | 8 pm ET · ESPN | |||||
Win chances are our model for Texas Tech, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Texas Tech: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Arizona | W 34-26 | 472 | 1 | 26:40 | +0.143 | 42.5% | 1.43 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | @Cincinnati | L 24-37 | 400 | 3 | 30:43 | -0.026 | 40.3% | 0.94 | |
| Oct 17 | Arizona State | W 53-25 | 502 | 1 | 27:27 | +0.279 | 56.7% | 0.99 | Blowout win |
| Oct 3 | @Colorado | W 29-7 | 315 | 0 | 28:56 | -0.151 | 31.2% | 1.14 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Sam Houston | W 49-14 | 470 | 4 | 24:54 | +0.365 | 66.2% | 1.03 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 18 | Houston | W 28-26 | 425 | 2 | 26:18 | +0.261 | 47.5% | 1.41 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | @Oregon State | W 35-24 | 352 | 1 | 29:35 | +0.197 | 40.3% | 1.21 | |
| Sep 5 | Abilene Christian | W 33-10 | 471 | 1 | 32:12 | +0.279 | 50.0% | 1.05 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 426 | 1.6 | +0.168 | 46.8% | 1.15 | ||||
Texas Tech's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last one.
If you go back to Oregon State game, the Houston game in the red zone, that was our most effective games
43% now · ▲ 13 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for Cincinnati over Houston
Sat 3:30 pm · Moves Texas Tech’s playoff chance by 3 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · Texas Tech · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 5%; 9 wins 23%; 10 wins 46%; 11 wins 27%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Only 8 of 8798 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board health this week (340 posts): 8% positive · 36% neutral · 56% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Texas Tech spent thirty years as the most entertaining team in Texas that never won anything — then a billionaire booster's checkbook and a 12-2 season delivered the program's first-ever Big 12 title, a 34-7 rout of BYU that turned the wildest fanbase in the league into champions.
Fans spent years hearing 'where is Lubbock?' and 'fun to watch, never a contender,' then heard a new version in 2025 — that the title was just bought, that the spending makes the championship…
Texas Tech · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Cool. Bring a jacket.
West Virginia at Texas Tech · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 9:30 pm ET · ESPN · Jones AT&T Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Texas Tech is the program that birthed the Air Raid, sustained it through Mike Leach's tenure, and refuses to be anything else.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2025
2nd percentile among FBS programs
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #7, Andy Yamashita (The Seattle Times), to #18, Cameron Cox (KPNX-TV).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Texas Tech · 2026