The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 17 Houston 47%, No. 13 Texas Tech 50%, No. 7 BYU 56%
Win out 10% · expect 2.3 of 4 more wins
Baylor's chance to win each game left, from our model: Iowa State 78%, BYU 56%, Texas Tech 50%, Houston 47%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 68% to 94%, peaking at 95% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Big 12 · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing D.J. Lagway 1,671 · Rushing Dawson Pendergrass 339 · Receiving Gavin Freeman 792 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Baylor:athletics siteBig 12X@BaylorAthleticsYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #33 | #71 | +6.5✓ +5.5 | Auburn (N) | L 16-17 175 Loud | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lagway 333 · Rush Pendergrass 88 · Rec Freeman 154 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #36 | #109 | −37.5✓ +3.5 | Prairie View A&M | W 44-3 136 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Bennett 301 · Rush Pendergrass 69 · Rec Freeman 104 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #36 | #83 | −20.5✗ −3.5 | Louisiana Tech | W 36-19 146 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Bennett 253 · Rush Morris 55 · Rec McGowan 79 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #35 | #126 | −8.5✓ +1.5 | Colorado | W 23-13 155 | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass Lagway 221 · Rush Pendergrass 85 · Rec Freeman 59 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #37 | #53 | +3.5✓ +39.5 | @Arizona State | W 55-19 153 | 4-1 | 2-0 | Pass Lagway 306 · Rush Knighten 84 · Rec Freeman 115 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #29 | #45 | −3.5✗ −14.5 | TCU | L 6-17 153 | 4-2 | 2-1 | Pass Lagway 256 · Rush Knighten 35 · Rec Freeman 76 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #31 | #58 | +1.5✓ +0.5 | @Kansas | L 24-25 152 Roaring | 4-3 | 2-2 | Pass Lagway 236 · Rush Lagway 47 · Rec Freeman 123 |
| 9 | Oct 30 | #35 | #57 | −2.5✓ +29.5 | @UCF | W 41-9 134 | 5-3 | 3-2 | Pass Lagway 319 · Rush Morris 82 · Rec Freeman 114 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #23 | #108 | −10 | Iowa State | 12 pm ET78% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #18 | #20 | @BYU | time TBA56% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Texas Tech | time TBA50% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Houston | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Baylor, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Baylor: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | @UCF | W 41-9 | 503 | 0 | 29:08 | +0.285 | 46.3% | 1.24 | Blowout win |
| Oct 24 | @Kansas | L 24-25 | 358 | 1 | 23:19 | +0.080 | 41.2% | 1.31 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | TCU | L 6-17 | 310 | 2 | 28:24 | -0.168 | 24.1% | 1.59 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Arizona State | W 55-19 | 564 | 0 | 31:05 | +0.411 | 40.2% | 1.80 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Colorado | W 23-13 | 337 | 1 | 28:34 | -0.074 | 35.1% | 1.10 | |
| Sep 19 | Louisiana Tech | W 36-19 | 418 | 2 | 27:42 | +0.213 | 36.2% | 1.52 | |
| Sep 12 | Prairie View A&M | W 44-3 | 552 | 3 | 34:22 | +0.260 | 49.4% | 1.24 | Best success rate |
| Sep 5 | Auburn | L 16-17 | 436 | 2 | 32:32 | +0.054 | 38.6% | 1.23 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 435 | 1.4 | +0.133 | 38.9% | 1.38 | ||||
Baylor's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Thank you for the opportunity to lead Baylor Football for the last seven years — it’s been a tremendous honor
1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Baylor sues former player for NIL buyout breach.
Statusdeveloping
Range of outcomes · Baylor · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 3%; 6 wins 17%; 7 wins 37%; 8 wins 33%; 9 wins 10%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 811 of 4080 board posts (20%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (61 posts): 20% positive · 54% neutral · 26% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Baylor is the program that scaled the mountaintop, collapsed all the way to the bottom, and then climbed back to a Big 12 title — proof in Waco that a faith-rooted rebuild could outlast the era that nearly ended it.
Bears fans say the country still files Baylor under one chapter of its past and refuses to look at what the program rebuilt — they say Waco won a Big 12 title the honest way and never got credit for…
Baylor · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Mild. No coat needed.
Iowa State at Baylor · Saturday, Nov. 7 · noon ET · FS1 · McLane Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 110 at noon, 112 at 3:30 pm, 112 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Baylor is the program that produced an offensive revolution under Art Briles and rebuilt its identity around faith and the Dave Aranda era.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
47th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
6Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Baylor · 2026