Louisiana Tech at Baylor
Baylor (1‑1) hosts Louisiana Tech (1‑1). The market has Baylor favored by 19.5. The model gives Baylor a 78% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Louisiana Tech · 1-1
Picked #88 in the preseason · now #80 — about right.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 14–45 @ LSUTop 25 #24 of 669
lost by 31 as a 34.5-point underdog
W 80–6 vs Northwestern State #249 of 669
won by 74 as a 44.5-point favorite
Last two games
Baylor · 1-1
Picked #33 in the preseason · now #34 — about right.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 44–3 vs Prairie View A&M #108 of 669
won by 41 as a 37.5-point favorite
L 16–17 @ Auburn #69 of 669
lost by 1 as a 6.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 15, 2026
The series
Baylor leads the series 5-1
6 meetings since 1981 · Baylor has won the last 2
- 1996Baylor 24–16
- 1994Baylor 44–3
- 1992Louisiana Tech 10–9
- 1987Baylor 13–3
- 1986Baylor 38–7
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Louisiana Tech
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are tired of their program being treated as a footnote — they'll remind anyone who'll listen that the sport's most famous quarterback came from Ruston, and that the Bulldogs have a national title most of their peers can only dream about.
What this game touches
Carrying a big-time pedigree at a small-time station. Louisiana Tech sent Terry Bradshaw to four Super Bowl wins and won a national title in its division — yet lives as a quiet Conference USA stalwart, its biggest names long gone to bigger stages. The ache is gentle but real: a program with blue-blood roots stuck on the sport's back roads.
Baylor
The chip · vs the national mediaBears fans say the country still files Baylor under one chapter of its past and refuses to look at what the program rebuilt — they say Waco won a Big 12 title the honest way and never got credit for the climb.
What this game touches
The 2025 regression under Aranda. Four years after the Big 12 title, Baylor slid to 5-7 in 2025 despite Sawyer Robertson leading the nation in passing yards — a defense that ranked near the bottom of FBS dragged the Bears below .500, reviving the question of whether the Aranda revival had stalled.
Best players
Louisiana Tech
- Jalen Mickens (WR) · 234 receiving yards
- Alonzo Jackson Jr. (LB) · 16 tackles
- Sam Fongang (DB) · 15 tackles
Baylor
- Gavin Freeman (WR) · 258 receiving yards
- Travion Barnes (LB) · 13 tackles
- Dawson Pendergrass (RB) · 157 rushing yards
What to watch
The total has moved down 2.0 points since opening (55 → 53).
The line, and the room
Louisiana Tech fans are feeling better about their season (77th percentile) than Baylor fans are (48th) — even with Baylor favored here.
- Model · 78%
- Market · 94%
- Baylor fans · 48th
- Louisiana Tech fans · 77th
Home −19.5 · O/U 53
Conditions
94°F · 8 mph wind
Baylor is worth +1.2 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 7th percentile.
55% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (24–20 home, 19–22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.2 at home vs. away over 71 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 270 miles to get here.
Recent games
Baylor
- Wk 1Lat Auburn16-17
- Wk 2Wvs Prairie View A&M44-3
Louisiana Tech
- Wk 1Wvs Northwestern State80-6
- Wk 2Lat LSU14-45
Trajectory
The market
Spread: −19 → −19.5 · Total: 55 → 53
Book hold: 5.0%